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Jumat, 28 November 2008
Rupiah Mulai Tenang
Pada perdagangan Jumat (28/11/2008), rupiah masih stabil di kisaran 11.975 per dolar AS. Rupiah pada perdagangan kemarin sempat melemah hingga 12.295 per dolar AS.
Perdagangan cukup sepi mengingat bursa Wall Street kemarin libur Thanksgiving. Namun sebagian aliran modal sudah mulai kembali ke Indonesia meski belum terlalu besar.
Sejumlah mata uang utama dunia juga bergerak perlahan atas dolar AS. Euro tercatat bergerak perlahan seiring liburnya pasar finansial AS. Euro diperdagangkan di level 1,2879 dolar, dibandingkan sebelumnya di level 1,2876 dolar.
Sementara dolar AS tercatat hanya menguat tipis di level 95,58 yen, dibandingkan sebelumnya di level 95,53 yen.
Analis mengatakan, berbagai langkah tambahan yang diambil pemerintah dan Bank Sentral sejumlah negara semakin menambah keyakinan investor akan membaiknya perekonomian. Hal itu memicu para investor untuk memulai lagi perburuan aset dengan risiko tinggi namun memberikan imbal hasil besar.
"Fokus pasar beralih dari konsentrasi pada kerusakan ekonomi akibat kredit macet ke dampak positif dari program dukungan pemerintah," ujar ekonom dari BNP Paribas seperti dikutip dari AFP.
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2008/11/28/080351/1044376/6/rupiah-mulai-tenang
Analysa tehnikal by AN 28 Nov 2008
Sell : 95.65
Stop : 96.10
Intraday : 95.10 – 94.90
Daily : 94.80 – 94.30
GBP Buy : 1.5330
Sell :
Stop : 1.5265
Intraday : 1.5435 – 1.5490
Daily : 1.5545 – 1.5590
XAU Buy : 802.00
Sell :
Stop : 796.00
Intraday : 813.25 – 818.95
Daily : 821.80 – 824.70
CHF Buy : 1.1990
Sell :
Stop : 1.1930
Intraday : 1.2070 – 1.2155
Daily : 1.2245 – 1.2290
AUD Buy : 0.6475
Sell :
Stop : 0.6415
Intraday : 0.6515 – 0.6570
Daily : 0.6630 – 0.6685
EUR JPY Buy :
Sell : 124.00
Stop : 124.50
Intraday : 122.85 – 122.05
Daily : 121.10 – 120.00
EUR Buy :
Sell : 1.2910
Stop : 1.2970
Intraday : 1.2820 – 1.2780
Daily : 1.2730 – 1.2680
Kamis, 27 November 2008
RI Dapat Utangan Rp 3,4 Triliun dari ADB
Pinjaman ini akan digunakan untuk membiayai 3 subprogram dalam program Infrastructure Reform Sector Development Program yang disetujui pada 2006.
Seperti dilansir siaran pers dari ADB, Kamis (27/11/2008), bantuan ADB ini berasal dari sumber pendanaan internal ADB dan memiliki jangka waktu selama 15 tahun termasuk 3 tahun masa tenggang.
Dengan proyek ini diharapkan bisa merayu partisipasi sektor swasta untuk ikut berpartisipasi dalam pembiayaan infrastruktur.
Dengan adanya partisipasi swasta diharapkan bisa meningkatkan iklim investasi dan meningkatkan akses terhadap pelayanan.
"Permintaan domestik dan investasi swasta telah menjadi pemicu utama dari pertumbuhan ekonomi saat ini. Kemajuan negara Indonesia lebih signifikan meski banyak bencana termasuk tsunami di tahun 2004," ujar Rehan Kausar, Infrastructure Specialist dari Departemen Asia Selatan ADB.
ADB memprediksi pemerintah Indonesia masih membutuhkan sekitar US$ 65 miliar untuk membangun infrastruktur baru pada tahun 2005-2009. Sekitar US$ 25 miliar akan dibiayai dari anggaran pemerintah, US$ 14 miliar dari perbankan domestik, dana pensiun dan asuransi, US$ 10 miliar dari mitra bilateral dan multilateral dan sisanya harus diambil dari sektor swasta.
ADB mencatat pertumbuhan investasi di bidang infrastruktur di Indonesia sudah meningkat menjadi 3,3 persen PDB pada tahun 2006 dibanding 2,9 persen pada 2005.
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2008/11/27/183832/1044213/4/ri-dapat-utangan-rp-34-triliun-dari-adb
UPDATE 4-UBS says finds some US tax fraud cases
LUCERNE, Switzerland, Nov 27 (Reuters) - UBS said on Thursday it has discovered a few cases of tax fraud as part of a U.S. inquiry into whether it helped wealthy Americans dodge taxes through accounts in Switzerland.
'Our investigations have uncovered a limited number of cases of tax fraud under both U.S. and Swiss law,' Chairman Peter Kurer told 2,400 shareholders gathered to vote on the bank raising 6 billion Swiss francs ($5 billion) with a convertible bond issue to the Swiss state.
Kurer, who took over in April, also said current and former top executives would give up 70 million francs in bonuses they received after coming under fire for accepting fat salaries despite steering Switzerland's flagship bank into heavy losses.
He reiterated that UBS, one of the hardest-hit banks in the subprime turmoil, still aimed to make a profit in 2009, but stressed market conditions remained difficult. UBS made a small third-quarter profit, mainly thanks to tax gains and accounting factors, but analysts expect it to take a new hit this quarter.
UBS is also under pressure from the U.S. tax investigation launched earlier this year, which led to the indictment of the bank's head of global wealth management this month and threatens to weaken Switzerland's precious banking secrecy laws.
But bank-client confidentiality, a pillar of Swiss banking, 'is not there to protect cases of tax fraud,' Kurer said, suggesting UBS could be ready to hand over some client details to U.S. authorities as part of a possible settlement.
The U.S. authorities are seeking the names of about 17,000 U.S. clients of UBS who have Swiss-based bank accounts. Swiss lawyers representing U.S. clients of UBS have said Switzerland is considering disclosing information on only a few hundred.
HUMBLE APPROACH
Kurer, who is trying to rebuild the bank's reputation after it was forced to write down about $49 billion on risky subprime assets, said UBS had taken broad measures to address its shortcomings, including aggressively reducing its balance sheet and overhauling its pay structure.
The chairman said he was personally replying to the many angry shareholders who had written to express their discontent with UBS, formerly an icon of Swiss banking whose stock used to be popular among Swiss retail investors.
Under the new pay system, the chairman will not get bonuses. Ex-Chairman Marcel Ospel, whose drive into investment banking many analysts blame for UBS's present woes, has also returned some of his pay, along with other executives.
'UBS is a leader in this regard,' Kurer said, adding he was working on getting more bonuses waived or returned.
'Those who are responsible must be brought to court,' said a 68-year-old UBS investor who lost much of his pension savings.
'I have lost nearly all what I and my wife had saved up for later years. What am I going to do now.?'
Kurer gave no details on to what extent UBS was stemming client money withdrawals, which totalled a record $49 billion in the third quarter in its core wealth management business.
UBS said earlier this month the pace of client outflows had started to ease after the Swiss government announced its rescue package. The deal also allows UBS to hive off up to $60 billion of illiquid assets in a special central bank-controlled fund.
He said the Swiss government intervention -- including the 6 billion francs of new capital the shareholders approved on Thursday, 'has helped bolster confidence in UBS and the Swiss banking and financial services industry as a whole.'
UBS shares, which have lost more than two thirds of their market value this year, rallied 4 percent earlier on Thursday, but later trimmed gains. They were up 2.4 percent at 15.16 Swiss francs at 1307 GMT, when the DJ Stoxx European banking sector index was up 2.5 percent.
'Kurer's forecast that 2009 will be profitable may help. But he has also warned that the situation could get worse,' said a trader.
($1=1.199 Swiss francs)
(Editing by Greg Mahlich) Keywords: UBS/
(elisabetta.jucca@thomsonreuters.co m; +41 58 306 7354; Reuters Messaging: elisabetta.jucca.reuters.com@reuter s.net)
COPYRIGHT
Copyright Thomson Reuters 2008. All rights reserved.
Analisa Tehnikal by AN 27 Nov 2008
Sell : 96.00
Stop : 96.50
Intraday : 95.10 – 94.50
Daily : 94.10 – 93.30
GBP Buy :
Sell : 1.5395
Stop : 1.5460
Intraday : 1.5285 – 1.5205
Daily : 1.5155 – 1.5075
XAU Buy : 802.00
Sell :
Stop : 796.00
Intraday : 813.25 – 818.95
Daily : 821.80 – 824.70
CHF Buy : 1.1990
Sell :
Stop : 1.1930
Intraday : 1.2070 – 1.2155
Daily : 1.2245 – 1.2290
AUD Buy : 0.6475
Sell :
Stop : 0.6415
Intraday : 0.6515 – 0.6570
Daily : 0.6630 – 0.6685
EUR JPY Buy :
Sell : 124.00
Stop : 124.50
Intraday : 122.85 – 122.05
Daily : 121.10 – 120.00
EUR Buy :
Sell : 1.2910
Stop : 1.2970
Intraday : 1.2820 – 1.2780
Daily : 1.2730 – 1.2680
Rabu, 26 November 2008
Analysa tehnikal by AN 26 Nov 2008
Sell : 96.00
Stop : 96.60
Intraday : 95.00 – 94.50
Daily : 94.00 – 93.50
GBP Buy : 1.5400
Sell :
Stop : 1.5340
Intraday : 1.5505 – 1.5560
Daily : 1.5640 – 1.5720
XAU Buy : 806.00
Sell :
Stop : 800.00
Intraday : 814.60 – 823.25
Daily : 832.00 – 840.90
CHF Buy :
Sell : 1.1910
Stop : 1.1975
Intraday : 1.1825 – 1.1745
Daily : 1.1665 – 1.1585
AUD Buy : 0.6450
Sell :
Stop : 0.6390
Intraday : 0.6515 – 0.6570
Daily : 0.6630 – 0.6685
EUR JPY Buy : 123.60
Sell :
Stop : 122.90
Intraday : 124.90 – 126.00
Daily : 126.90 – 127.80
EUR Buy : 1.2980
Sell :
Stop : 1.2930
Intraday : 1.3090 – 1.3185
Daily : 1.3230 – 1.3280
Potential Cost of US Financial Bailout: Over $8 Trillion
CNBC.com
Following is a rundown of the total amount of known US public funds that could be put at risk—either spent, allocated or pledged—in Fed liquidity, loan and purchase actions, Treasury Department financial rescue efforts, housing support legislation and actions by other federal agencies:
* Up to about $1.8 trillion in Fed purchases of top-rated US dollar commercial paper under a facility launched in October. The Fed said it does not intend to buy anywhere near this amount, which represents what eligible issuers could sell—up to $1 billion per issuer. As of Nov. 19, the Fed's holdings in this facility were $270.88 billion.
* Up to about $1.9 trillion in new Federal Deposit Insurance Corp guarantees for banks, including $1.4 trillion in new senior unsecured debt issued by banks, and $500 billion in transaction deposit accounts typically used by businesses to pay employees and vendors.
* Up to $800 billion in Fed support for mortgage and consumer credit markets, including purchases of up to $600 billion in debt and mortgage-backed securities issued by government-sponsored enterprises. The Fed is also launching, with Treasury backing, a $200 billion loan facility to support consumer credit, such as student auto and credit card loans.
* Up to $600 billion in Fed purchases of US dollar commercial paper and certificates of deposit under a Money Market Investor Funding Facility announced Oct. 21.
* Up to $900 billion in Fed Term Auction Facility loans was offered to meet financial institutions' cash needs over the year-end period, including $600 billion in normal auction facilities and two $150 billion "forward" TAF auctions conducted this month. As of Nov. 19, $415.3 billion in TAF credit was extended.
WALL STREET IN CRISIS - A CNBC SPECIAL REPORT
* Unlimited commitments to lend through discount window to banks and broker dealers. Credit extended under these facilities totaled $296.82 billion as of Nov. 19.
* $700 billion for the Treasury to buy equity stakes in financial institutions. The Treasury allocated $250 billion of this amount to banks and thrifts and granted another $40 billion to insurer American International Group [AIG 1.77 --- UNCH (0) ] and $20 billion to Citigroup [C 6.08 0.13 (+2.18%) ] under special rescue programs. The ultimate cost of these programs is uncertain and the government could profit if the shares rise in value.
* The Treasury, the FDIC and the Fed have agreed to shoulder up to $249.3 billion in losses from a Citigroup portfolio of $306 billion in risky assets.
* Unlimited temporary Fed currency swap lines with the European Central Bank, and central banks in England, Japan and Switzerland. The Fed maintains $165 billion in swap lines with other central banks to address elevated pressures in US dollar short-term funding markets.
* Up to $50 billion from the Great Depression-era Exchange Stabilization Fund to guarantee principal in money market mutual funds to provide the same confidence that consumers have in federally insured bank deposits.
* At least $26.57 billion in Treasury direct purchases of mortgage-backed securities since September. The Treasury has said it will continue to make purchases in the months ahead.
* $200 billion to backstop Fannie Mae [FNM 0.47 0.13 (+38.24%) ] and Freddie Mac [FRE 0.53 0.08 (+17.78%) ]. The Treasury will inject up to $100 billion into each institution by purchasing preferred stock to shore up their capital as needed.
* Up to $144 billion in additional MBS purchases by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac since their portfolio limits were expanded when the government took them over in September.
* AIG will get up to $152.5 billion in support from Treasury equity purchases and loans from the Fed.
* $300 billion for the Federal Housing Administration to refinance failing mortgages into new, reduced-principal loans with a federal guarantee, passed as part of a broad housing rescue bill.
* $4 billion in grants to local communities to help them buy and repair homes abandoned due to mortgage foreclosures.
* $29 billion in financing for JPMorgan Chase's [JPM 29.77 2.19 (+7.94%) ] government-brokered buyout of Bear Stearns in March. The Fed agreed to take $30 billion in questionable Bear assets as collateral, making JPMorgan liable for the first $1 billion in losses, while agreeing to shoulder any further losses.
Chinese Economy Unlikely to See Deflation
China's economy is unlikely to experience deflation, while GDP growth is expected to stay above 8 percent in 2009, a researcher from a key government think-tank said in remarks published on Wednesday.
China, Chinese Flag
CNBC.com
China is not displaying the economic symptoms of inflation, Fan Jianping, the chief economist of the State Information Centre, told the official China Securities Journal.
Fan said an outright decline in consumer prices was unlikely in 2009, but the producer price index may fall in a few months of the year.
Higher grain purchase prices and a possible overhaul of pricing mechanisms for natural resources would prevent consumer price deflation, but tumbling global oil costs and weaker economic growth would weigh on wholesale prices, he said.
China's economic growth slowed to 9.0 percent in the third quarter from 10.1 percent in the second, hurt by the global credit crisis and a weak property sector, leaving the economy on course for its first year of single-digit expansion since 2002.
The slowdown was likely to come to an end in the second half of 2009 so long as the stimulus policies recently announced by the government are put into effect, Fan told the newspaper.
Wu Xiaoling, a former deputy governor of the central bank who is now a senior lawmaker, expected China would grow 8-9 percent next year, the official Financial News reported.
It quoted Wu as telling financial executives that the most important thing for China was to adopt a flexible and prudent macroeconomic policy stance.
The World Bank on Tuesday lowered its forecast of Chinese growth in 2009 to 7.5 percent from 9.2 percent and said it expected consumer inflation to slow to 2.0 percent from 6.5 percent on average this year.
But Louis Kuijs, the senior economist in the bank's Beijing office, played down the threat of deflation. Falling raw material prices were unambiguously good news for China, a big net importer of commodities, and the government could easily respond, for example, by raising minimum wages, if deflation loomed, he said.
"I would not be worried about deflation. Let's be glad we don't have to worry about inflation," Kuijs told reporters.
Selasa, 25 November 2008
BCA Dapat Tambahan Likuiditas Rp 36 Triliun
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BCA Dapat Tambahan Likuiditas Rp 36 Triliun
Jakarta - Di tengah kondisi likuiditas yang ketat, Bank Central Asia (BCA) masih memiliki cadangan likuiditas yang aman, bahkan sampai akhir tahun ini BCA akan mendapatkan tambahan likuiditas sekitar Rp 36 triliun.
Hal ini dikatakan oleh Wakil Presiden Direktur BCA Jahja Setiaadmaja dalam public expose di acara "Investor Summit & Capital Market Expo 2008" di Hotel Ritz Charlton, Pacific Place, SCBD, Jakarta, Selasa (25/11/2008).
"Untuk likuiditas kita tidak khawatir, dari SBI kita ada Rp 30 triliun dan dari pencairan SUN yang jatuh tempo pada 25 Desember 2008 ada tambahan Rp 6,3 triliun. Jadi ada tambahan sekitar Rp 36 triliun," tuturnya.
Jahja mengatakan untuk tahun depan, perseroan juga akan mendapatkan tambahan likuiditas dari pencairan SUN yang jatuh tempo sebesar Rp 11,5 triliun.
DPK Tembus Rp 200 Triliun
Sementara itu untuk Dana Pihak Ketiga (DPK), BCA mengumpulkan sebesar Rp 200 triliun lebih, jumlah ini meningkat dari besaran DPK perseroan sampai September 2008 yang sebesar Rp 192,89 triliun.
"Sekitar 3 hari yang lalu, DPK kita pecah Rp 200 triliun, ini pertama kalinya. Pertumbuhan paling banyak adalah dari tabungan," jelasnya.
Jahja mengatakan pada akhir September 2008 pertumbuhan DPK perseroan memang lebih kecil yaitu 14%, dibandingkan pertumbuhan kredit perseroan yang sebesar 53,3%. Sedangkan untuk DPK valas, saat ini Jahja mengatakan besarannya adalah US$ 1,7 miliar.
"Karena memang secara nasional seperti itu. Untuk kredit memang besar pertumbuhannya karena kita mengambil kesempatan di saat bank-bank luar negeri tidak lagi memberikan pinjaman kepada perusahaan-perusahaan bagus di Indonesia," jelasnya.
Dilanjutkannya karena berhentinya kucuran pinjaman dari bank di luar negeri kepada perusahaan di dalam negeri, perseroan mengambil kesempatan tersebut.
"Karena itu dari pertumbuhan kredit 53,3%, sebanyak 70%-nya adalah korporasi. Jadi itu kesempatan yang tidak kita sia-siakan, karena kita punya modal atau CAR yang bagus," katanya.
Untuk KPR, pertumbuhan sampai September 2008 adalah 41,8%, kredit kendaraan bermotor 94%.
Akan tetapi untuk tahun 2009 di saat kondisi ekonomi tidak kondusif, Jahja mengatakan perseroan tidak akan terlalu agresif, oleh karena itu pertumbuhan kredit hanya ditargetkan 10-15%.
Google to cut contract workers: report
Internet search giant Google Inc said it is "significantly" reducing the number of contract workers it uses, but has no plans at this time to lay off employees, the Wall Street Journal said.
"We have been thinking for some time, before the acute phase of the economic crisis, about significantly reducing the number of contract workers," spokeswoman Jane Penner told the paper.
Google declined to specify how many contract workers might be cut, nor would Penner discuss the pace at which the company would terminate contractors, the paper said.
Google ended the third quarter with 20,123 company employees and about 10,000 contractors, according to the paper.
Sumber: www.reuters.com
China Growth Seen Slowing; Citi Boosts Stocks
What started more than a year ago as a meltdown in the U.S. market for high-risk mortgages has engulfed the world, freezing access to credit, sparking bank collapses and requiring the financial bailout of entire countries.
Qantas Airways, motorcycle maker Honda Motor and camera company Canon added their voices to a chorus of firms warning of the effects of the slowdown.
But the U.S. government's weekend rescue of No.2 bank Citigroup [C 5.95 2.18 (+57.82%)
]provided some temporary respite for battered equity markets, sending Asian shares up 3 percent on Tuesday.
A 20 billion pound plan to kickstart the British economy announced on Monday and hopes for an aggressive stimulus package from the incoming administration in Washington also provided some relief.
U.S. President-elect Barack Obama said his newly appointed economic team would act "swiftly and boldly" to fight the downturn that has sent the world's largest economy into its worst tailspin in decades.
"These extraordinary stresses on our financial system require extraordinary policy responses," Obama said.
China this month unveiled a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) spending package to help prop up its economy, but growth would still likely slow to around 7.5 percent in 2009, from 9.4 percent this year, the World Bank said in a report.
That would be China's slowest growth since 1990 and below a pace of 8 percent that conventional wisdom suggests is needed to absorb newcomers to the workforce.
But World Bank country director David Dollar said at the forecast rate of growth, China would continue to create enough jobs and the labor market would remain "pretty tight".
More than half the forecast growth next year would come from Beijing's stimulus package, while net exports, by contrast, would lop 1 percentage point off growth as overseas demand for Chinese goods slows, the bank said.
Damage Control
Evidence continued to mount about the parlous state of the global economy elsewhere too.
In Japan, which suffered years of economically damaging deflation, the cost of business services fell the most in five years in October.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development is expected to report recession in the United States, Japan and the euro zone would drag emerging economies into a punishing slowdown as access to credit remains tight and consumer confidence evaporates.
U.S. gross domestic product data is likely to show economic activity shrank by 0.5 percent in the third-quarter, more than initially estimated.
A further deterioration is expected this quarter, putting the world's largest economy in recession.
"Economic conditions are rapidly changing in the current quarter, largely as a result of the financial market dislocations and faltering confidence among both businesses and consumers," said Joseph Lavorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York.
Demand Slows
Companies have also been feeling the pinch.
Australia's Qantas said demand had slowed, forcing it to cut its 2009 profit forecast and further reduce capacity.
"We are in unpredictable times and the international business market, in particular, has slowed," Chief Executive Geoff Dixon said in a statement.
The president of Japan's Canon warned in an interview with Reuters that the global market for digital cameras may contract next year as consumer demand shrinks.
And Honda, the world's top motorcycle maker, said sales could stop growing in 2009 as the credit crisis catches up with emerging markets.
But relief that Citigroup would not be allowed to go the same way as Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns encouraged investors to buy shares beaten to multi-year lows last week.
Shares in Citigroup surged almost 60 percent on Monday after the U.S. government moved to rescue it with a $20 billion capital injection and a promise to shoulder hundreds of billions in risky assets.
The U.S. S&P 500 jumped 6.5 percent, taking its gains since Friday to 13.2 percent -- its biggest two-day rally since the days following the 1987 stock market crash.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 Average [JP;N225 8323.93 413.1397 (+5.22%)
] closed over 5 percent higher, while MSCI's index of other Asia-Pacific stocks added 3 percent, having sunk to a five-year low last week.
"Expectations for the new U.S. administration were a major factor while the Citi bailout news also helped. Gestures shown by Obama and his team this week were aggressive and gave assurance to investors," said Kim June-kie, a market analyst at SK Securities in Seoul.
Transaksi Pemegang Saham Pengendali Bank Century Distop
Hal tersebut disampaikan Menkeu Sri Mulyani di sela-sela Investor Summit dan Capital Market Expo di Hotel Ritz Carlton, Pacific Place, SCBD, Jakarta, Selasa (25/11/2008).
"Kita monitor transaksi yang berhubungan dengan pemegang saham pengendali tidak boleh dilakukan atau distop supaya tidak menimbulkan kecurigaan," ujarnya.
Menkeu meminta masyarakat untuk tidak melakukan spekulasi atau rumor. "Insya Allah akan diatasi dengan baik," ujarnya.
Bank Century kini sudah diambil alih oleh pemerintah melalui Lembaga Penjamin Simpanan (LPS).
Untuk mencegah terjadinya kasus serupa di bank lain, pemerintah dan Bank Indonesia (BI) akan memantau seluruh neraca bank secara intensif.
"BI melakukan dan kita juga akan meminta melalui KSSK, monitoring sistemik krisis secara intensif. Seluruh bank akan dilihat secara intensif masing-masing neracanya dan bahkan akan dilihat dari komitmen pemilik saham pengendalinya," ujarnya.
Tambah Likuiditas, Pemerintah Siap Belanja Rp 100 Triliun Lebih
Hal tersebut disampaikan Menkeu Sri Mulyani dalam sambutannya di investor summit, di Hotel Ritz Carlton, Pacific Place, SCBD, Jakarta, Selasa (25/11/2008).
"Saya masih punya Rp 120 triliun di BI, saya harus spend one month kalau saya bayar DIPA (Daftar Isian Pelaksana Anggaran) ini maka dalam waktu 1 kali 30 hari ke depan, seluruh pencairan anggaran akan terjadi," ujarnya
Menkeu mengatakan dirinya sudah berkoordinasi dengan BI (Bank Indonesia) dan perbankan supaya likuiditas bisa berputar. "Jadi jangan dipakai untuk membeli dolar, malah bikin runyam," ujarnya.
Dengan demikian pemerintah mengharap, pencairan anggaran ini jangan dipakai untuk spekulasi.
"Karena ini digubakan untuk likuiditas untuk aktifitas ekonomi bukan untuk spekulasi, jadi pemerintah akan terus menerus mencairkan anggaran, bahkan lebih sampai Rp 100 triliun," ujarnya.
Tawarkan SUN ke Pemda
Sementara itu, pemerintah akan menawarkan SUN kepada pemerintah yang memiliki surplus kas hingga Rp 38-40 triliun.
"Ya saya bilang kepada mereka daripada punya cash mendingan saya tukar dengan SUN, agar cash-nya bisa kita pakai, kan 38049 triliun itu unused money," ujarnya.
Dow Rallies Nearly 400 as Citigroup Soars
It was the market's best two-day run since after the crash of 1987 but proved to be a nail-biter at the end, with stocks yo-yo'ing a couple hundred points in the final 10 minutes of trading, after being up more than 550 points.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 396.97, or 4.9 percent, at 8443.39, adding to Friday's nearly 500-point gain.
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 index advanced more than 6 percent each.
For the Investor |
In economic news, existing-home sales fell 3.1 percent to an annual rate of 4.98 million units in October from a downwardly revised 5.14 million pace in September. That was roughly in-line with the 5.05 million rate economists had expected.
Housing stocks soared, with Centex [CTX 7.00 1.49 (+27.04%)
] ending up 27 percent and Lennar [LEN 4.58
0.94 (+25.82%)
] gaining 26 percent. Home-improvement retailers also rallied, with Home Depot [HD 21.42
2.13 (+11.04%)
] up 11 percent and Lowe's [LOW 19.46
2.31 (+13.46%)
] up 14 percent.
Oil stocks advanced as oil rose more than $4.50, settling at $54.50 a barrel. Dow components Chevron [CVX 74.30 3.81 (+5.41%)
] and ExxonMobil [XOM 78.80
2.99 (+3.94%)
] rose 5.4 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively.
Tech stocks posted some sharp gains, with Apple [AAPL 92.95 10.37 (+12.56%)
] up 13 percent and Amazon [AMZN 42.50
4.63 (+12.23%)
] up 12 percent. Google [GOOG 257.44
-4.99 (-1.9%)
], however, fell 1.9 percent.
Retailers also rose sharply, with upscale department store Neiman Marcus [JWN 9.76 1.95 (+24.97%)
] up 25 percent and teen chain Abercrombie & Fitch [ANF 17.45
2.81 (+19.19%)
] up 19 percent.
Wal-Mart [WMT 52.77 -0.15 (-0.28%)
], the stallion of the shopping season, was the only decliner on the Dow, falling 0.3 percent.
Stocks briefly pared gains earlier after President-elect Barack Obama named his economic team, as expected. New York Federal Reserve President Timothy Geithner was named Treasury secretary, while former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers tapped to direct the National Economic Council and Christina Romer, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, was named head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
News of Obama's team helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average close above the psychologically important 8,000 level on Friday.
On the earnings front, Campbell Soup [ Loading... () ] beat expectations amid strong sales of condensed soups, which are more profitable for the company than ready-to-eat soups. But Campbell shares declined 7.9 percent as the company delivered a disappointing full-year outlook.
Xerox shares [XRX 6.19 0.94 (+17.89%)
] jumped 18 percent after the company issued an outlook in-line with forecasts.
The world's biggest brewer, Anheuser-Busch Inbev launched a deeply discounted rights issue to help fund the purchase of the Bud beer maker by the Belgian company.
Obama Urges Quick Action On Economic Stimulus
"Most experts now believe that we could lose millions of jobs next year," he said, urging the newly elected Congress to act quickly on his plans after opening its session on Jan. 6.
At a news conference, Obama was critical of the Big Three automakers, saying he was surprised they did not have a better-thought-out plan for their future before asking Congress to approve $25 billion in emergency loans.
He said once he sees a plan, he expects "we're going to be able to shape a rescue."
Obama declined to say how large a stimulus package he wants from Congress.
Democratic lawmakers speculated over the weekend that the price tag could reach $700 billion over two years as the nation struggles to emerge from a recession compounded by a credit crunch.
"It's going to be costly," the president-elect said.
Obama made his comments as he unveiled the top members of his economic team, beginning with New York Federal Reserve President Tim Geithner to be his treasury secretary.
Geithner, 47, is a veteran of financial crises at home and overseas and has worked closely with the Bush administration in recent months.
Obama chose Lawrence Summers as director of his National Economic Council. Summers was treasury secretary under former President Bill Clinton.
Obama said his newly minted economic team offered "sound judgment and fresh thinking" at a time of economic peril.
He expressed confidence the nation would weather the crisis "because we've done it before." Obama also announced two other members of his economic team in the making.
He named Christina Romer as chair of his Council of Economic Advisers, and Melody Barnes as director of his White House Domestic Policy Council.
Obama's principal theme was urgency.
"We do not have a minute to waste," he said, citing the turmoil in the financial markets as well as the deterioration of the broader economy.
He also said he would "honor the commitments made by the current administration" to deal with the problems, signaling approval of the Bush administration's latest effort to rescue Citigroup as well as the broader $700 billion bailout designed to shore up the financial markets.
Bush said earlier in the day that the government's dramatic rescue of Citigroup was necessary to "safeguard the financial system" and help the economy recover, and he said there could be more such moves if other institutions need help.
"We have made these kind of decisions in the past. We made one last night. And if need be we will make these kind of decisions to safeguard our financial system in the future," Bush said.
As a candidate, Obama was a supporter of the $700 billion bailout measure. Any stimulus plan would greatly exceed the $175 billion price tag Obama had suggested as a candidate.
At the news conference, he said he wanted to create 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010. He also said he wants the legislation to incorporate his campaign ideas for new jobs in environmentally friendly technologies—the "green economy."
As a candidate, Obama also said he wanted to eliminate Bush-era tax cuts on the wealthy.
Many economists caution that raising taxes can make a recession worse, and the president-elect said he would await a recommendation from his advisers on whether to follow through on his earlier pledge.
His call for quick congressional action was welcomed by Senate Majority leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.
"With the cooperation of our Republican colleagues, we intend to send a plan to the White House as soon as possible following President-elect Obama's inauguration," Reid said.
Obama spoke one day after a senior adviser, David Axelrod said, "We want to hit the ground running on Jan. 20."
Echoing that, the second-ranking House Democrat, Rep. Steny Hoyer of Maryland, said, "We expect to have during the first couple of weeks of January a package for the president's consideration when he takes office."
While Obama and his team are focused on the work of the new Congress, they also weighed in on work pending before the current one.
Axelrod warned automakers seeking billions in government help to devise a plan to retool and restructure that they can present to Congress next month. Otherwise, he said, "there is very little taxpayers can do to help them."
The emphasis on the economy began Saturday when Obama outlined the framework to save or create 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010.
But there were no plans to balance the tax cuts with an immediate tax increase on the wealthy. During the campaign, Obama said he would pay for increased tax relief by raising taxes on people making more than $250,000.
"There won't be any tax increases in the January package," said one Obama aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the details of the Obama package have not been fleshed out.
Obama could delay any tax increase to 2011, when current Bush administration tax cuts expire.
Sumber: www.cnbc.com
Asian Markets Surge on Citigroup Bailout
Japan's Nikkei 225 Average [JP;N225 8246.08 335.29 (+4.24%)
] jumped 4.5 percent as a surge in U.S. shares on Washington's decision to rescue Citigroup [C 5.95
2.18 (+57.82%)
] encouraged investors to buy equities, with a weaker yen sparking buying of exporters such as Kyocera. Honda Motor rose 5 percent, even after it announced a plan on Friday to build fewer cars in Japan, Europe and North America to reflect an increasingly bleak outlook for sales as the global economic crisis discourages big-ticket purchases.
Analisa Tehnikal by AN 25 Nov 2008
Sell :
Stop : 96.00
Intraday : 97.20 – 97 .75
Daily : 98.00 – 98.50
GBP Buy : 1.5100
Sell :
Stop : 1.5040
Intraday : 1.5205 – 1.5260
Daily : 1.5340 – 1.5420
XAU Buy : 816.00
Sell :
Stop : 810.00
Intraday : 824.35 – 833.00
Daily : 841.50 – 850.50
CHF Buy :
Sell : 1.2260
Stop : 1.2320
Intraday : 1.2175 – 1.2090
Daily :1.2030 – 1.1997
AUD Buy : 0.6555
Sell :
Stop : 0.6490
Intraday : 0.6600 – 0.6660
Daily : 0.6710 – 0.6780
EUR JPY Buy :124.20
Sell :
Stop : 123.90
Intraday : 125.90 – 126.90
Daily : 127.85 – 128.75
EUR Buy : 1.2840
Sell :
Stop : 1.2780
Intraday : 1.2935 – 1.3015
Daily : 1.3105 – 1.3190
IHSG Bisa Merayap ke Jalur Positif
Penguatan sejumlah bursa saham Asia pada Selasa pagi ini (25/11/2008) diharapkan bisa menular sedikit ke IHSG. Indeks Korea pagi ini dibuka menguat 4,7% atau 45,95 poin menjadi 1.016,09. Indeks Nikkei naik 1,46% atau 115,27 poin menjadi 8.026,06. Indeks Australia S&P/ASX200 juga naik 4,7% atau 160,1 poin menjadi 3.585,2.
Positifnya bursa Asia Pasifik ini mengikuti penguatan saham-saham di Wall Street yang menguat tajam setelah pemerintah AS mengumumkan bailout untuk Citigroup. Saham bank terbesar kedua AS itu langsung melesat dan menginspirasi kenaikan harga saham lainnya.
Pada penutupan perdagangan Senin waktu AS (24/11/2008), indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ditutup menguat hingga 396,97 poin (4,93%) ke level 8.443,39. Indeks Standard & Poor's 500 melonjak 51,78 poin (6,47%) ke level 851,81 dan Nasdaq menguat 87,67 poin (6,33%) ke level 1.472,02.
Optimisme pasar di AS juga bertambah setelah presiden terpilih Barack Obama telah menunjuk pada penasihat ekonominya, yang dianggap sesuai dengan harapan pasar. Obama memilik Presiden Bank Sentral New York Tomothy Geithner sebagai Menkeu, sementara Lawrence Summers menjadi Direktur Dewan Ekonomi Nasional.
Pelaku pasar dalam negeri juga akan mulai memilih saham-saham yang harganya sudah di bawah dengan cara melakukan pembelian selektif. Hal yang bisa mengganggu pergerakan IHSG adalah masalah pelemahan rupiah.
Sementara pada penutupan perdagangan saham Senin kemarin (24/11/2008) IHSG hanya melemah 4,875 poin (0,43%) menjadi 1.141,401.
Berikut rekomendasi saham dari perusahaan sekuritas.
Panin Sekuritas
IHSG kemarin mengalami penurunan tipis -0.43%. Meski sepanjang hari berada dalam area negatif, akan tetapi terlihat beberapa saham mulai bergerak menguat (rebound). Sementara hari ini kami perkirakan IHSG masih akan bergerak mixed dengan kecenderungan melemah. Minimnya sentimen positif, disamping bursa regional yang masih tertekan oleh dampak resesi global akan menyebabkan momentum naik cenderung cepat tertahan (terbatas). Investor juga cenderung untuk lebih cepat merealisasikan keuntungan jika harga naik.Secara teknikal, IHSG terlihat berada dalam pola sideways dengan pergerakan terbatas. Kisaran support-resistance 1.118-1.170.
Optima Securities
Momentum penguatan indeks pada awal pekan terhalang pelemahan bursa saham Asia seperti Hang Seng -1,59% sehingga terkoreksi tipis 4 poin keposisi 1.141. Pelemahan indeks diperkirakan mulai terbatas dengan support kuat di 1.100 karena sudah masuk area oversold. Potensi rebound terbuka dikisaran 1.110-1.160 dengan pilihan saham: PGAS, SMGR, BBCA, BDMN, dan INTP.
eTrading Securities
Bursa Indonesia kemarin bergerak melemah tipis seiring dengan pergerakan bursa regional yang cenderung flat. Indeks ditutup melemah tipis 0,4% di level 1141,4 dengan transaksi yang masih cenderung tipis, hanya sekitar Rp1,58 triliun. BUMI menjadi Top Value pada perdagangan kemarin seiring mulai munculnya bargain buying pada saham yang telah berada di bawah book valuenya ini. Pada akhir sesi, kabar pengucuran bail-out untuk menyelamatkan Citigroup memberi sentimen positif bagi bursa.
Bursa US pada perdangangan semalam kembali menguat dan membukukan rally terbesar selama 2 hari berturut-turut sejak tahun 1987, setelah keputusan pemerintah US untuk menyelamatkan Citigroup dengan menyuntikkan cash $20 miliar dan menjamin aset-aset bermasalahnya senilai $306 miliar. Testimoni dari Obama yang menyatakan akan menyelamatkan 3 emiten otomotif terbesar di US juga berperan mengangkat kepercayaan diri investor. Dow naik +4,9%, S&P500 +6.4%, Nasdaq +6,3%.
Bursa Asia sendiri dibuka naik tajam pada perdagangan pagi ini seiring sentimen positif dari bursa US dan kembali reboundnya harga minyak dunia ke level $54,5 atau naik 9% dari penutupan kemarin. Nikkei +5%, KOSPI +5,5%, STI +3,2% dan AORD +3,8%.
Bursa Indonesia pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan akan rebound setelah selama 6 hari berturut-turut bergerak melemah. Positifnya sentimen dari bursa global dan reboundnya harga minyak dunia akan menjadi katalis penguatan indeks hari ini. Sektor komoditas, energy related dan Banking diperkirakan akan bergerak menguat pada hari ini, sementara sektor consumer dan infrastruktur akan terkena aksi profit taking seiring pengalihan portfolio investor dari sektor defensif ke saham-saham dengan sensitifitas tinggi. Rentang pergerakan indeks akan berada pada kisaran 1130 – 1187.(ir/ir)
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2008/11/25/073502/1042330/6/ihsg-bisa-merayap-ke-jalur-positif
Rupiah Masih Dibayangi Sentimen Negatif Irna Gustia - detikFinance
Pada perdagangan valas pukul 07.45 WIB, Selasa (25/11/2008) rupiah ada di posisi 12.350 per dolar AS dan ditransaksikan di kisaran 12.275-12.425 per dolar AS. Posisi rupiah ini kembali melemah dibanding penutupan Senin kemarin di level 12.320 per dolar AS.
Belum adanya kebijakan yang kuat terhadap penataan dolar AS milik eskportir membuat pasokan dolar AS di pasar menipis. Eksportir diduga masih banyak yang memarkir dananya di luar negeri. Kondisi pasar global yang tidak stabil justru membuat pelaku pasar mengamankan investasinya di dolar AS.
Sementara pada penutupan perdagangan valas Senin waktu AS (24/11/2008) euro menguat ke 1,2928 dolar As dibanding Jumat pekan lalu di posisi 1,2587 dolar AS. Sedangkan terhadap yen, mata uang dolar AS menguat ke 97,23 yen dari sebelumnya 95,89 yen.
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2008/11/25/075729/1042335/6/rupiah-masih-dibayangi-sentimen-negatif
Pencarian Investor Strategis Bank Kesawan Tertunda
Proses pencarian investor strategis telah dilakukan Bank Kesawan sejak setahun terakhir. Pemegang saham perseroan juga telah melakukan penjajakan atau pembicaraan bahkan melakukan due diligence awal dengan beberapa investor strategis.
"Namun hingga saat ini belum pernah ada pertemuan formal antara manajemen dengan investor strategis manapun. Dengan adanya situasi krisis finansial global pada awal Oktober 2008 menyebabkan beberapa investor strategis menunda proses tersebut," kata Dirut Bank Kesawan Dinno Indiano dalam keterbukaan informasi ke Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), Selasa (25/11/2008).
Manajemen berjanji jika keputusan final mengenai investor strategis sudah ada akan segera melaporka ke otoritas bursa. Harga saham Bank Kesawan pada penutupan Senin kemarin (24/11/2008) ada di level 660 per saham.
Bank Kesawan adalah salah satu bank tertua di Indonesia yang pertama kali didirikan di Medan pada 28 April 1913 dengan nama yang pertama kali digunakan adalah NV. Chunghwa Shangyeh Maatschappij (Chinese Trading Company Ltd). Kemudian pada 31 Maret 1962 perusahaan berganti nama menjadi PT. Bank Chunghwa Shangyeh dan baru pada Maret 1965 memakai nama Bank Kesawan.
Total aset Bank Kesawan per 30 September 2008 mencapai Rp 2,02 triliun dengan kapitalisasi market saat ini Rp 330,8 miliar.
Pemegang saham Bank Kesawan per 30 September 2008 adalah, PT Adhi Tirta Mustika 64,03%, PT Kapita Sekurindo 27,70% dan sisanya dimiliki publik.
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2008/11/25/084301/1042372/5/pencarian-investor-strategis-bank-kesawan-tertunda
Senin, 24 November 2008
US to Guarantee Over $300 Billion in Citigroup Assets
"With these transactions, the U.S. government is taking the actions necessary to strengthen the financial system and protect U.S. taxpayers and the U.S. economy", the Treasury, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said in a joint statement.
No Plans For Federal Takeover Of Citi
The government officials decided against taking over Citigroup in the way it took control of AIG by lending the firm massive amounts of money and in return assuming a huge equity position.
Government officials fear taking over Citigroup would create a precedent: Unlike AIG, Citigroup's balance sheet is relatively healthy, with relatively strong levels of capital particularly compared to most of its competitors.
Still, officials from the Treasury and Citigroup are unsure what it would take to restore confidence in the company, including a possible smaller capital injection or some sort of statement that Citigroup is financially sound.
For that reason, Citigroup officials are continuing to explore possible merger possibilities and a spin off of some of Citigroup's businesses, even as CEO Vikram Pandit publicly stated the sale of the firm's massive and coveted broker business, Smith Barney is off the table, these people say.
Both officials at Citigroup and in the government concede the situation facing Citigroup is daunting. Because of Citigroup's size and scope—it operates in just about every country and competes in just about every financial business, the company's survival is a national concern.
Citigroup has spent the past week telling investors that its capital position is strong, but investors have lost confidence in the current management led by CEO Vikram Pandit who has been in the job less than a year, and the firm's board, which appeared to ignore widespread calls by analysts to integrate the firms operations and slash its massive workforce until recently.
Meanwhile, various merger possibilities seem slim. A deal with investment banks Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs would create massive overlap and would lead to huge layoffs. There aren't many banks with a strong deposit base that Citigroup can buy with its depressed stock price.
(Watch the full Charlie Gasparino Citigroup report on the left)
Pandit, for his part, has cut the workforce to 350,000 from 375,000 and just announced another 50,000-job cut by early 2009. But for investors, those moves were too little too late. Just a year ago, Citigroup's share traded at around $50.
Citigroup's shares fell 60 percent last week to $3.77 amid concerns about the bank's loan exposure amid a recession hurting many economies globally. Citi shares failed to rebound on Friday, even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average of large company stocks spiked nearly 500 points on the news that President-elect Barack Obama will name NY Fed President Tim Geithner as his new Treasury Secretary.
Because Citigroup is a bank it has access the the Federal Reserves discount window, and because of its size, there is virtually no possibility of the bank failing and filing for bankruptcy as investment bank Lehman Brothers did. "Citigroup is too big to fail; the government wont allow that because the firm is involves in so many business both institutional and consumer around the world," said one bond trader with detailed knowledge of Citigroup's operations.
Sumber : www.cnbc.com
BEI: Saham Publik di Bank Century Tidak Hangus
"Nggak hangus, mana bisa hangus. Nanti kita tunggu laporan dari LPS, kan tidak mungkin LPS ambil alih 100%. Saham publik kan tidak bisa dihilangkan," kata Direktur Perdagangan dan Litbang BEI MS Sembiring di gedung BEI, Jakarta, Senin (24/11/2008).
Sembiring menilai adanya kecemasan saham publik di Bank Century akan hangus karena munculnya informasi yang tidak benar. "Saya kira ini cuma persepsi saja yang menyebabkan munculnya informasi saham publik akan hilang," tukasnya.
Jika pemegang saham lama akan ikut menambah modal, menurut Sembiring, maka itu dilakukan oleh pemegang saham utama melalui penyertaan modal sementara maksimal 25% dari dana modal untuk penyelamatan.
"Pemegang saham lama bisa ikut melakukan normalisasi Bank Century, tidak mungkin pemegang saham publik yang dikorbankan. Saham publik pasti akan diproteksi," jelas Sembiring.
Saat ini investor publik tidak bisa melakukan transaksi saham Bank Century karena sahamnya disuspensi sejak Jumat 21 November 2008. Harga terakhir saham Bank Century ada di level Rp 50 per saham.
Pemegang saham Bank Century per 30 September 2008 adalah:
Clearstream Banking S.A Luxembourg 11,5%
First Gulf Asia Holdings Limited (d/h Chinkara Capital Limited) 9,55%
PT Century Mega Investindo 9%
PT Antaboga Delta Sekuritas 7,44%
PT Century Super Investindo 5,64%
Lain-lain kurang dari 5% sebesar 57,21%.