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Senin, 24 Februari 2014

IMF's Lagarde confident on 'action-oriented' G-20 plan

An "action-oriented" plan by the G-20 to add an extra two percentage points to global growth over five years has a good chance of succeeding, International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde said on Sunday.
Speaking at a meeting of the Group of 20 world economies in Sydney, Lagarde also praised Australia's presidency of the gathering.

(Read more: Global growth target ambitious but achievable: France)

The G-20 said in a communiqué on Sunday that they would develop policies to lift their collective gross domestic product by an additional 2 percent over the coming five years, generating over $2 trillion in additional output and creating tens of millions of new jobs.

"We believe that if the reforms that have been identified are adhered to and delivered by the various authorities then that is a goal that can be achieved and possibly exceeded," Lagarde told reporters on Sunday.
CNBC
CNBC's Oriel Morrison interviews IMF chief Christine Lagarde
The G-20– which collectively represent 85 percent of the global economy –have until November when the next G-20 summit takes place in Brisbane, Australia, to finalize their own strategies to implement the structural reforms necessary to up growth by 0.5 percent per year, Reuters reported.

(Read more: G20 aspires to faster economic growth, road map sketchy)

"The beauty of the plan is that it's going to rely essentially on domestic measures that will be beneficial for domestic markets," Lagarde told CNBC on the sidelines of the G-20 meeting. "It's not some 'far-fetched plan out in the clouds," she added.

The IMF forecasts 3.7 percent global growth in 2014 and 4 percent in 2015.
Aus Fin Min: G-20 needs to commit to growth targets
Australia's Finance Minister Mathias Cormann, says he hopes the G-20, which meets this weekend, can commit to a plan of action that will strengthen the global economy.
Speaking about the fallout of an unwinding of U.S. monetary stimulus on frail emerging markets, Lagarde said the U.S. Federal Reserve did have an open mind about the implications of its actions for the developing world.

(Read more: Australian Finance Minister: 'We could do better')

"Clearly during the discussions yesterday and today, there was an open mind on the part of the chairman of the Fed to understand the issues and listen to the concerns and what you call the angst of the emerging market economies," she told CNBC.

Lagarde added that it was important to remember that emerging market economies were subject to their own nuances and should not be bundled together.

"You can't just put all emerging market economies into one bucket… and assume that they are all the same. They are all very different. Some of them have taken policy measures in order to resist potential volatility and that has proven efficient," she said.

JPMorgan avoids third showdown over Dimon role

JPMorgan Chasehas avoided a third successive showdown with shareholders at its annual meeting in Florida by convincing activists to forgo a vote on whether the bank should split the roles of chairman and chief executive.
Jamie Dimon holds both positions and last year's meeting in Tampa saw a contentious vote over whether to strip him of one of the roles in the wake of the "London whale" trading fiasco. After lobbying from both sides, the bank ultimately quelled revolt over the issue.
(Read more: Jamie Dimon - the most influential on Wall Street)
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Jamie Dimon
On Thursday it announced that it had managed to remove it from the agenda altogether.
Lee Raymond, lead independent director of JPMorgan's board, said: "Engagement with shareholders is important and facilitates a better understanding of governance practices and communications that promote the best interests of the company and its shareholders."
(Read more: Fined billions, JPMorgan Chase will give Dimon a raise)
The proposal was already a watered-down version of the 2013 proposal. Rather than calling for Mr Dimon to be stripped of one of the roles, it only advocated splitting the positions when he eventually steps down from the helm of JPMorgan.
Private sector key to economic growth: JPMorgan Int'l Chairman
Jacob Frankel, chairman of JPMorgan Chase International, says the private sector must pick up the slack in the global economy and is key to sustaining economic growth.
Timothy Smith of Walden Asset Management, representing the sponsor of the proposal to separate the roles, said: "We are pleased with the positive response from the company and are confident that the goodwill stimulated from both of the agreements announced today will lead to productive ongoing work regarding these important governance matters."

To attempt to assuage shareholders' concern that the dual structure concentrates too much power in the hands of a single person, the board has strengthened the role of Mr Raymond, codifying his responsibilities for holding Mr Dimon to account.
That change follows a similar move at Goldman Sachs, which was also sufficient to neutralise an attempt to split the chairman and chief executive roles held by Lloyd Blankfein.
(Read more: Dimon: Economy's starting to fire on all cylinders)
JPMorgan said it had also managed to satisfy a group of nuns, who agreed to withdraw their proposal that the bank should be forced to produce a report to shareholders into its "multiple scandals", ranging from the London whale to mis-selling of mortgage-backed securities.
The Sisters of Charity of Saint Elizabeth said they were agreeing to withdraw their proposal after JPMorgan had pledged to write a similar report.The thaw in relations between the bank and the nuns comes only weeks after JPMorgan's lawyers told the Securities and Exchange Commission that their proposal was "materially false and misleading".
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Nigeria suspends central bank chief

Nigeria's president on Thursday suspended the governor of the country's central bank for "financial misconduct" and said his tenure was "characterized by various acts of financial recklessness".

"This particular step has been taken to rescue the central bank and re-position it," Reuben Abati, the media adviser to Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, told CNBC Africa.

Governor Lamido Sanusi is widely respected after undertaking reforms to the banking sector since his appointment in 2009 and was named central bank governor of the year for 2010 by Banker magazine.
(Read more: Africa now paying a 'democratic dividend')

He has been a vocal critic of the government's track record in tackling corruption. Recently he alleged that $20 billion in oil revenue had gone missing and wrote to President Jonathan to question the shortcomings.
Jason Alden | Bloomberg via Getty Images
Lamido Sanusi, governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria
Nigeria's state oil firm has denied failing to account for the money, saying the claim was "unsubstantiated".
Sanusi, who was out of the country, said he was unaware of what accusations the president's office was referring to and questioned the legality of his dismissal.
"I don't know what they are talking about. When I come back I will see what those allegations are," he told CNBC Africa.

(Read more: Frail EMs hot topic for G-20 meeting)

"There is also the legal question of (the) president, who does not have the legal authority to remove the central bank governor. Even if I challenged it – I will not go back to the job, but I think it would be in the interest of the institution for the court check if the president has the power," he said.
However, Abati said Sanusi had been under investigation since mid-2013, and that the central banker had been aware of this.
"He was aware of it and he was queried," Abati told CNBC Africa. "What you probably have in this situation, is a case of a man who knows that he has a case to answer and who has taken steps – preemptive steps – to prevent certain outcomes."

He added that "many Nigerians" approved of the suspension.
"I do not believe that anybody should have any anxiety about what happens hereafter. Indeed, what I have seen online is that many Nigerians – if not the majority of them – have been saying that the suspension of Mr Lamido Sanusi has been long overdue," he said.

Meanwhile, Sanusi said he hoped the news would not damage the Nigerian economy, as the bond market closed unexpectedly and the Nigerian naira spiked to 169 to the dollar.
"I also hope the position of the central bank will be protected. I have been fortunate to do some good work on the banks in terms of stability, I would not want to see all of that unravelled," he said.
(Read more: A make or break speech for Zuma?)

Sanusi's deputy, Sarah Alade, will replace him on an acting basis.
Sanusi said: "I think she is a very competent person, I have every confidence in her, I am very happy for her. Like I said I have no regrets, no ill feelings. I am happy and proud of what I have done," he said.
Abati refused to rule out the possibility that the Nigerian government might seek to prosecute Sanusi for his alleged offenses.

"I believe our government will do so if there are any grounds, but it is not for me to determine that," he told CNBC.

Jumat, 21 Februari 2014

Daily Forex Brief

Friday 21st February 2014 9:13:58 am (GMT)
Daily Forex Brief
The Daily Forex Brief is written by FxPro's team in the City of London. Visit fxpro.co.uk for more news, FX commentaries, FxPro TV, real-time feeds, calculators and tools.

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Finance ministers and central bank governors of the G20 nations are meeting in Asia over the weekend at a time when monetary policy is becoming ever more crucial for FX markets. In the early part of the financial crisis, everyone seemed to be moving in the same direction, in other words rates moving down. Now, we're seeing much greater divergence, both in expectations and actual rates, which is causing more trends in currencies. The ECB has been easing and may do more next month. Expectations on the UK have shifted dramatically over the past 6 months towards earlier tightening.
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Flash Markit/HSBC PMI fell to a seven-month low of 48.3
20th February 2014 @ 02:07 GMT
Flash Markit/HSBC PMI fell to a seven-month low of 48.3 in February from January's final reading of 49....
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19th February 2014 @ 19:11 GMT
FOMC minutes show participants waiting updated guidance soon. EURUSD dropped 15 pips and now trading at 1.3740...Upcoming Webinars
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Bank of England keeps digging
12/02/14 @ 12:21 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist
The Bank of England is in a hole and instead of climbing out, it has continued to dig. Recall, when forward guidance was introduced 6 months ago, there were several knock-outs, which allowed the Bank 'wiggle room' around its new 7.0% threshold level on the unemployment rate, above which rates would continue to be kept low. Six months on, with unemployment having moved close to the 7.0% level far faster than anyone anticipated, the Bank has introduced a lot more complexity to the policy outlook.


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Daily Tehnical Analysis

 Pre US Open, Daily Technical Analysis Friday, February 21, 2014

 EUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/JPYAUD/USDGOLDCRUDE OIL

 Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out. 

 
 EUR/USD Intraday: under pressure.
 PrevNext 


  
 Pivot: 1.373Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 1.373 with targets @ 1.369 & 1.367 in extension.Alternative scenario: Above 1.373 look for further upside with 1.3745 & 1.3775 as targets.Comment: The pair stands below its resistance as the RSI is capped by a declining trend line.  
  
 GBP/USD Intraday: key resistance at 1.6695.
 PrevNext 


  
 Pivot: 1.6695Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 1.6695 with targets @ 1.662 & 1.66 in extension.Alternative scenario: Above 1.6695 look for further upside with 1.6735 & 1.676 as targets.Comment: The pair is rebounding and is challenging its resistance.  
  
 USD/JPY Intraday: the upside prevails.
 PrevNext 


  
 Pivot: 102Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 102 with targets @ 102.75 & 103.05 in extension.Alternative scenario: Below 102 look for further downside with 101.65 & 101.35 as targets.Comment: The pair remains on the upside and is approaching its previous high.  
  
 AUD/USD Intraday: caution.
 PrevNext 


  
 Pivot: 0.8955Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 0.8955 with targets @ 0.902 & 0.9045 in extension.Alternative scenario: Below 0.8955 look for further downside with 0.8925 & 0.89 as targets.Comment: the immediate trend remains up but the momentum is weak. Intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution.  
  
 Gold spot Intraday: bounce.
 PrevNext 


  
 Pivot: 1307Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1307 with targets @ 1332 & 1338 in extension.Alternative scenario: Below 1307 look for further downside with 1297 & 1286 as targets.Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.  
  
 Crude Oil (NYMEX) (Apr 14) Intraday: further advance.
 PrevTop 


  
 Pivot: 102Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 102 with targets @ 103.3 & 103.9 in extension.Alternative scenario: Below 102 look for further downside with 101.3 & 100.8 as targets.Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.  
  
 Disclaimer
  
 CopyrightThe information contained herein is produced by 'TRADING Central' and not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial product. Any opinion offered in this material reflects the opinion of 'TRADING Central' and this is subject to change without notice. 'TRADING Central' is an investment research provider (

http://www.tradingcentral.com/start.asp?p=quisommesnous).

  
  
 
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Disclaimer: This material is considered a marketing communication and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice or an investment recommendation or, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee of or prediction of future performance. FxPro does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation. FxPro makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied by an employee of FxPro, a third party or otherwise. This material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements promoting the independence of investment research and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice. Any opinions made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinions of FxPro. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without prior permission.

Risk Warning: CFDs, which are leveraged products, incur a high level of risk and can result in the loss of all your invested capital. Therefore, CFDs may not be suitable for all investors. You should not risk more than you are prepared to lose. Before deciding to trade, please ensure you understand the risks involved and take into account your level of experience. Seek independent advice if necessary.


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US housing starts plunge 16% as cold weather blankets country

U.S. housing starts recorded their biggest drop in almost three years in January, likely weighed down by harsh weather, but the third month of declines in permits pointed to some underlying weakness in the housing market.
The Commerce Department said on Wednesday groundbreaking tumbled 16.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 880,000 units, the lowest level since September. The percentage drop was the largest since February 2011.
Starts for December were revised up to a 1.05 million-unit pace from the previously reported 999,000-unit rate.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected starts to fall to a 950,000-unit rate in January
Starts in the Midwest tumbled a record 67.7 percent, suggesting unseasonably cold weather could have disrupted activity. But at the same time groundbreaking in the Northeast surged to the highest since August 2008.
Frigid temperatures have been blamed for the sharp slowdown in hiring in December and January. They also chilled manufacturing output last month and have been cited for the unexpected drop in retail sales in January.
But not all of the weakness in data can be attributed to the cold weather, amid evidence the economy was already losing momentum towards the end of the fourth quarter.
Groundbreaking for single-family homes, the largest segment of the market, fell 15.9 percent to a 573,000-unit pace in January. That was the lowest level since August 2012. Starts for the volatile multi-family homes segment dropped 16.3 percent to a 307,000-unit rate.
Permits to build homes fell 5.4 percent in January, the largest drop in since June, to a 937,000-unit pace. Permits for single-family homes slipped 1.3 percent. Multifamily sector permits declined 12.1 percent.

Producer prices stay tame

Separately, U.S. producer prices rose for a second straight month in January, pushed up by an increase in the cost of goods, but there was little sign of a broad pick-up in inflation pressures at the factory gate.
The Labor Department said its seasonally adjusted producer price index for final demand increased 0.2 percent last month, the largest increase since October.
Prices received by the nation's farms, factories and refineries had edged up 0.1 percent in December.
The renamed index has been broadened to include services and construction. It was previously known as PPI for finished goods.
PPI now covers about 72 percent of services, which along with other factors will see it likely tracking closely the Consumer Price Index with the passage of time, according to economists.
It expands coverage by including prices for personal consumption, business investment, government spending and exports.
While the revamped series only made its debut on Wednesday, the department's statistics agency, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has been publishing the new series on an experimental basis since December 2009.
Final demand for goods rose 0.4 percent in January after rising by the same margin in December. Final demand for services increased 0.1 percent after slipping 0.1 percent in December.
In the 12 months through January, producer prices increased 1.2 percent, the largest increase since October, after advancing 1.1 percent in December.
Producer prices excluding volatile food and energy costs rose 0.2 percent after being flat the prior month.
But an even broader gauge of core producer prices - final demand less foods, energy, and trade services - nudged up 0.1 percent after rising 0.3 percent in December.
Accounting for about two-thirds of final demand, economists believe that, over time, this could become the preferred core rate measure for producer prices.
In the 12 months through January, the so-called core PPI for final demand rose 1.3 percent after increasing 1.2 percent in December.
Inflation continues to run very low because of labor market slack, which could see the Federal Reserve keeping its benchmark interest rate near zero for a while even as it dials back its monetary stimulus.
--By Reuters

Kamis, 20 Februari 2014

Daily Forex Brief

Wednesday 19th February 2014 11:01:09 am (GMT)
Daily Forex Brief
The Daily Forex Brief is written by FxPro's team in the City of London. Visit fxpro.co.uk for more news, FX commentaries, FxPro TV, real-time feeds, calculators and tools.

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The underlying theme of dollar weakness has continued overnight, with the main dollar index (DXY) hitting a new low for the year below the 80.0 level. The single currency itself managed to stage something of a come-back yesterday above the 1.3750 area. Expectations of more policy action and the passing of year end factors which had boosted the euro at the end of 2013 made for a soft start to the year, but so far in February there have only been 3 down days for EURUSD.
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Sterling wrong-footed by rise in unemployment rate
19th February 2014 @ 09:37 GMT
Sterling dropping below 1.67 after surprise rise in unemployment rate from 7.1% to 7.2%. Earnings rising 1....
Dollar weaker after latest data, EUR at 1.3745
18th February 2014 @ 13:36 GMT
EURUSD moving higher to 1.3740, level last seen 2nd Jan. US Empire manuf data weaker at 4.48 (from 12.51). ...Upcoming Webinars
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Bank of England keeps digging
12/02/14 @ 12:21 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist
The Bank of England is in a hole and instead of climbing out, it has continued to dig. Recall, when forward guidance was introduced 6 months ago, there were several knock-outs, which allowed the Bank 'wiggle room' around its new 7.0% threshold level on the unemployment rate, above which rates would continue to be kept low. Six months on, with unemployment having moved close to the 7.0% level far faster than anyone anticipated, the Bank has introduced a lot more complexity to the policy outlook.


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Help CenterLive ChatLegal InformationFxPro UK Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (previously, Financial Services Authority) (registration no. 509956). FxPro Financial Services Limited and FxPro UK Limited are direct operating subsidiaries of the holding company FxPro Group Limited.Disclaimer: This material is considered a marketing communication and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice or an investment recommendation or, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee of or prediction of future performance. FxPro does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation. FxPro makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied by an employee of FxPro, a third party or otherwise. This material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements promoting the independence of investment research and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice. Any opinions made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinions of FxPro. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without prior permission.Risk Warning: Contracts for Difference ('CFDs') are complex financial products that are traded on margin. Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk since leverage can work both to your advantage and disadvantage. As a result, CFDs may not be suitable for all investors because you may lose all your invested capital. You should not risk more than you are prepared to lose. Before deciding to trade, you need to ensure that you understand the risks involved taking into account your investment objectives and level of experience. Past performance of CFDs is not a reliable indicator of future results. Most CFDs have no set maturity date. Hence, a CFD position matures on the date you choose to close an existing open position. Seek independent advice, if necessary. Please read FxPro's full Risk Disclosure Statement .

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China factory activity slows to 7-month low

China's manufacturing activity slowed to a seven-month low in February, a private survey showed on Thursday, once again stirring concerns over the health of the world's second-largest economy.
The flash Markit/HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 48.3 from a final reading of 49.5 in January.

This is the second straight month the PMI has fallen below 50, which signals contraction.

"Economic activity has slowed in early 2014. Tighter credit in the fourth quarter of 2013 has made inventories more difficult to finance, prompting manufacturers to destock in February," said Bill Adams, senior international economist with financial services firm PNC.

The reaction in markets was swift; the Australia dollar fell half a U.S. cent to $0.8957, from $0.9004 before the data, while Aussie stocks turned negative. Australia is particularly sensitive to data from China, its top export market.

(Read more: China,Japan headed down opposite policy paths)

Chinese stocks also pared gains, with the Shanghai Composite trading up 0.7 percent compared with its earlier rise of over 1 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was down 1 percent.
A breakdown of the PMI showed new orders falling to 48.1 from 50.1 in January, and production dropping to 49.2 from 50.8. New export orders, however, rose to 49.3 from 48.4.
But getting the most attention is the employment sub-index, which Chinese policymakers are particularly attuned to. That came in at 46.9, its lowest reading since February 2009.

According to Zhiwei Zhang of Nomura, the figures back the bank's view that China will struggle to maintain its rebound.
Stringer | AFP | Getty Images
"We reiterate our view that the recovery in China is not sustainable and that GDP (gross domestic product) growth will slow to 7.5 percent year-on-year in the first quarter and 7.1 percent in the second quarter, despite favorable base effects," he said.
"We expect the government to loosen monetary policy in the second quarter to support growth," he added.

(Read more: Is China's love for Treasurys waning?)
Earlier this week, China's central bank unexpectedly drained 48 billion yuan ($7.9 billion) from money markets following a boom in lending at the start of the year, a sign that the tightening bias by the central bank remains in place.
Data confusion
The latest data adds to confusion over the true state of China's economy. While factory activity has been weakening since the start of the year, bank lending and trade data in January painted a rosy picture.
Blurring the picture further is the fact that Chinese data at the start of the year is typically distorted due to the Lunar New Year effect, when many businesses wind down operations.
According to Steve Brice, chief investment strategist at Standard Chartered Wealth Management, the fluctuations in the data won't change the fact that Chinese policymakers want to rebalance the economy and will tolerate slower growth in the forseeable future.
(Read more: The China risk you may have forgotten about)

"The authorities clearly want to support growth at some levels around 7 percent, they don't want to blow up above 8 percent as they manage the credit bubble," he said. "Overall, the picture will not be positive coming out of china for some time."
Swan: Don't panic over weak Chinese PMI
Wayne Swan, former Treasurer of Australia, says he is confident that China will continue to grow above 7 percent annually and explains why there's no need for panic over latest factory data.
Former Treasurer of Australia, Wayne Swan, also weighed in on the China debate.

"China growing at 7 percent plus is still very big and important contribution to global growth, we should never lose sight of that. The Chinese are reorienting their economy from export-led growth to more domestic consumption, so this is not going to be an easy thing for them," he told CNBC on the sidelines of the G20 meeting that will kick off in Sydney this weekend.
"But I believe Chinese government has the will power and the confidence to ensure that their economy continue to grow. I don't think there's a need to panic every time we see a PMI which might be a bit below the average," he added.
— By CNBC

Fed issues stricter capital rule for foreign banks

The U.S. Federal Reserve on Tuesday released the final version of tight new capital rules for foreign banks, giving them a year longer to meet the standard and applying it to fewer banks than in a first draft.
The reform is designed to address concerns that U.S. taxpayers will need to foot the bill if European and Asian regulators treat U.S. subsidiaries with low priority when rescuing one of their banks.
The largest foreign banks, with $50 billion or more in U.S. assets, will need to set up an intermediate holding company and be subject to the same capital, risk-management and liquidity standards as U.S. banks, the Fed staff said.
(Read more: Foreign banks bracing for tough U.S. Fed capital rules)
The Fed estimated that between 15 and 20 foreign banks would fall under the requirement, which was eased from when the rule was first proposed in December 2012, when the cut-off was $10 billion in U.S. assets.
Foreign banks with sizable operations on Wall Street such as Deutsche Bank and Barclays have pushed back hard against the plan because it means they will need to transfer costly capital from Europe.
"The most important contribution we can make to the global financial system is to ensure the stability of the U.S. financial system,'' Fed Governor Dan Tarullo, in charge of financial regulation, said in a speech.
(Read more: U.S. spat looms with foreign regulators over swap rules)
Europe has warned of tit-for-tat action, with European Union financial services commissioner Michel Barnier saying in October the bloc would draw up similar measures if the Fed pushed ahead with its plans.
The Fed also gave foreign banks a year longer to meet the requirement to set up the new structure, with the new deadline being July 1, 2016. Both changes had been widely expected in the market.
(Read more: EU plans for trading rules widen global gap in bank regulations)
The new structure gives banks less flexibility to move money around than under the current rules, which allow banks to use capital legally allocated in their home country. In some cases, the U.S. rules are tougher than elsewhere.
The rule also subjects foreign banks with global assets of $10 billion or more to stress tests that rely on the home-country stress tests standards, the Fed staff said.
—By Reuters

Wall Street fights to keep young, restless analysts

Wall Street's two-year analyst program is the stuff of undergraduate legend. The deal: Give a bank your waking hours for a finite period of time, in which one is guaranteed nearly six figures in compensation and a rigorous boot camp in high finance.
That honest bargain created a decades-old institution that provided many a first job for executives across a wide variety of industries beyond Wall Street.
Getty Images
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
But as regulation mounts, pay stalls, and industries like technology, media and consulting compete for talent, young and restless analysts are throwing in the towel, leaving banks with a new dilemma of how to keep them.

Take Chris Martinez.

A 2010 graduate of Wisconsin, Martinez joined a group working on mergers in the tech, media and telecoms sector. Martinez worked on high-profile deals around the clock, pulling more all-nighters than he could count. Within seven months, Martinez had secured a job at private equity firm Apax Partners and, though interested in the content of the work he did, began counting down days to better hours.
(Read more: Wall Street jobs to increase, but there's a catch)
"It's almost expected that an analyst, especially in their first year, is just going to be miserable," Martinez told CNBC. High achievers hand over the keys to their lives to do "repetitive, simple work" on Excel spreadsheets, he said. He estimated that only 5 percent of his work made it to his group's corporate clients.
"The fundamental nature of the work makes it very difficult for the job to compete with many other jobs out there," Martinez said.
Around the time Martinez was leaving, Goldman executives had realized many like him were taking the bank's training and heading to rivals. To stem the exits, it set up a junior banker task force, responsible for conceiving ideas for how to introduce a semblance of work-life balance for the twentysomethings who had previously checked that "life" part of the equation at the door.

(Read more: From brats to bosses—Gen Y to dominate by 2025)
Goldman has since suggested analysts aim for a 75-hour workweek (not 100). The bank has also eliminated Saturday work, unless the analyst is on a live deal. The most notable outcome: the end of Goldman's two-year trainee program, which has roots in the 1980s. Graduates will now join as full-time employees, instead of as contractors.
"If more banks moved in the direction of breaking down this two-year program, they'd be better off," said Adam Grant, a behavioral expert and professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, noting that employees join with only short-term goals in mind. "If Wall Street doesn't change, it will be the next dinosaur."
Grant has been so vocal on the topics of burnout and employee morale that Goldman sought his counsel when it was looking to implement more changes in 2013. At his suggestion, the firm is now conducting "entry interviews" with new joiners, attempting to curtail unnecessary face time, and eliminating Saturday work (unless the analyst is working on a live deal).
Big banks fight to keep young analyst
CNBC's Kayla Tausche reports on the efforts of big banks to retain young talent on Wall Street.
Grant wanted to go even further, to have the analysts rank their managers and do away with those higher-ups who were especially toxic. However, Goldman rejected the idea, Grant says, because it didn't want to have to ditch managers who were top producers.
It's not just Goldman's problem. All of Wall Street's banks have been grappling with how to stem the flight of analysts as constant industry vilification and regulation have meant there aren't the risks—or, more importantly, rewards—that once existed.
Entry-level analysts who join investment banks following financial crises earn less overall in their careers than those who join in good times, according to 2008 research by Stanford's Paul Oyer. Oyer estimates investment bankers graduating into a bull market earn up to $5 million more over time than those who join during downturns.
(Read more: Gen Y managersperceived as entitled, need polish)
Mark Horney at Columbia Business School says bull markets see more of these "shoppers"—students who choose Wall Street because of its pay or cachet, not because they like the core content of the work. Oyer found that in his research, too.
"When times are lean on Wall Street," Oyer writes, the group of applicants interested in Wall Street as a quick payday "shows less interest in working there."

Between 2012 and 2013, the number of MBA candidates who planned to head to Wall Street fell across the top business schools, by 8 percentage points at Harvard Business School alone. The trend at the undergraduate level is even more drastic: For instance, the percentage of Princeton graduates going into finance fell 14 percentage points between 2006 and 2011.

Kevin Roose, a writer for New York Magazine, explores these issues in his new book "Young Money." Roose followed eight analysts into the two-year trenches and found that, while most went to Wall Street in search of financial security, by the end of their two years "they just want some sleep."

(Read more: What the millennial generation wants from work)
For others, Wall Street is simply intellectually rigorous prep for an unrelated career—one of the main types of flight investment banks are now trying to stem.
Graham Carroll, an MBA student at UNC's Kenan-Flagler business school, spent three years at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in the first analyst class following the firms' hurried merger. In order to keep top talent in the 24-person financial institutions group around for longer, the bank created a rare third-year analyst position, a mezzanine level of sorts.

But Carroll realized that, fundamentally, he wanted to do something entrepreneurial—not something ever more senior within the bank's bureaucratic strata. He and his brother have tiptoed into the business of recycling electronics but are now steering toward something more financial.

"I didn't see the managing director I worked for as an idol of sorts, that I wanted to do what he did in 10, 12, 13 years," Carroll said. While admitting it's not for everyone, Carroll said he would "100 percent recommend" an analyst program to any graduate, as long as they were ready to make the lifestyle sacrifices in the short term. "What gets lost in translation a lot of times is that the job is a great job."

(Read more: The surprising reason college grads can't get a job)
Other analysts with less bullish perspectives preferred to remain anonymous, since they still do business with their former employers, but provided much the same responses. "I figured I could do anything for two years, but only two years," said one former JP Morgan analyst.
Banks are hoping that changes to analyst programs will be viewed as a positive structural change. While their private responses have been mixed—executives at one bank recalled "snickering" while others felt "relief" at Goldman's taking the initiative—the public responses have been unified: Nearly every bulge-bracket firm has taken steps toward, at the very least, reducing weekend work.
Unfortunately, many of the changes seem to be a mile wide and an inch deep. Beyond the internal memos issued within the banks, Bank of America, Credit Suisse, Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase have declined to make executives available to discuss the efforts, or elaborate on them on the record.

"They eat their young," said Brad Hintz, an equity research analyst covering the financials, whose curriculum vitae includes partner at Morgan Stanley and CFO of Lehman Brothers. "They're being nicer about it, but it's still a meritocracy."

(Read more: More confident,people are quitting jobs: Why that may be bad)
Wharton's Grant says the moves are a step in the right direction, but e-mails like one he received over the President's Day holiday still raise eyebrows.
In the e-mail, a first-year analyst at an unnamed bank contacted Grant after reading about his work with Fortune 100 companies. The analyst had been brainstorming ways to improve morale within his own firm—like catered lunches or out-of-office events—but found his ideas dead on arrival when he tried to suggest them to his bosses. Most of the talk about a groundswell of cultural change was simply "PR stunts."

"These banks often recruit top talent, treat them like crap after investing quite a bit of money in training them," the analyst concluded, "and continue to do it year after year."
By CNBC'

Five years already? Stimulus debate still rages

President Barack Obama marked the five-year anniversary of a controversial economic stimulus plan by releasing a report on saying that government spending averted a second Great Depression, setting off a new round of partisan debate about the decision.
Obama had been in office only a month when he signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, a $787 billion stimulus that Democratic majorities in both the Senate and House of Representatives passed over the objections of Republicans.
Many Americans remain doubtful about how helpful the stimulus was for an economy that still struggles to recover from a deep recession that took hold in 2008.
(Read more: What the Fed will tell markets this week)
The White House, eager to lay to rest those doubts, issued a five-year report on Monday that said the stimulus generated an average of 1.6 million jobs a year for four years through the end of 2012.
Nothing wrong with more stimulus in Europe: Pro
Jaco Rouw, Senior Portfolio Manager, Core Fixed Income at ING Investment Management, says that "there's nothing wrong with a further dose of monetary stimulus" in Europe.
The stimulus by itself raised the level of gross domestic product by between 2 percent and 3 percent from late 2009 through mid-2011, said the report, issued by the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

Jason Furman, chairman of the council, said the Recovery Act had a "substantial positive impact on the economy, helped to avert a second Great Depression, and made targeted investments that will pay dividends long after the act has fully phased out."
(Read more: That's patriotic! Paying Uncle Sam extra—voluntarily)
Republicans, who are attempting to oust Democrats from control of the Senate and build on their House majority in November elections, were quick to raise objections to the White House report.
House Speaker John Boehner, the top U.S. Republican, said the stimulus turned out to be a classic case of "big promises and big spending with little results."
"Median household incomes are down. Prices on everything from gas to groceries are higher. A new normal of slow growth has set in, with most now saying the worst is yet to come," Boehner said in a statement.
The battle over the stimulus remains relevant today as Obama seeks congressional approval of infrastructure spending intended to create jobs.
(Read more: Welcome to the good news/bad news economy)
"Five years later, the stimulus is no success to celebrate. It is a tragedy to lament," said Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell in an opinion article for Reuters.
—By Reuters

Selasa, 18 Februari 2014

Yuan takes another step forward as a world currency

Australia's stock exchange operator ASX and Bank of China said on Tuesday that they will provide a yuan settlement service to Australian and Chinese financial markets by mid-year, marking the latest step in the yuan's development as a global currency.

China is Australia's biggest trading partner and Australian firms have increasingly been settling their Chinese trade in yuan rather than U.S. dollars, according to local media reports.

(Read more: China's bank lending party keeps on rolling)

The new yuan settlement service will allow Australian firms to make trade and investments with China through the ASX, which has a "proven market infrastructure," the ASX said in a statement.
"What today is about is a milestone in the journey Australia and China are taking together," Australia's Assistant Treasurer Arthur Sinodinos told CNBC's Asia Squawk Box.
Ian Waldie | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Chinese authorities have been stepping up efforts to improve the use of the yuan, which remains tightly controlled by Beijing.
In October for instance, China launched a currency swap deal with the euro zone.
(Read more: Yuan moves one step closer to global currency status)
The yuan, also known as the renminbi, is now one of the world's ten most frequently traded currencies, the Bank of International Settlements said last September.
Sinodinos told CNBC that Australia was not perturbed by recent signs that China's economy is losing its momentum.

"Australia takes a long-term view of the China relationship. China is going through a transition. Their transition will lead to consumption-led growth, it will lead to increased demand for a diversified group of products and services," Sinodinos said.

(Read more: Yuan now one of world's most tradable currencies)

"Australia's economy is also going through a transition where we've had growth based on record levels of resource investment. We're diversifying our economy as well and we're well placed to service many of these emerging needs from China," he added.
Australia, Japan and the U.S. are the only countries to allow full convertibility of the yuan, according to media reports.
Writing by CNBC

Senin, 17 Februari 2014

Japan's GDP miss – What went wrong?

Japan's economy grew at a much slower pace than expected at the end of 2013, stoking fears that Abenomics' momentum has stalled, but some economists say the dip will prove fleeting.

Japan's economy grew 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of last year from the previous quarter, below analysts' expectations in a Reuters' poll for a 0.7 percent gain, data on Monday showed. On an annualized basis the economy grew 1 percent, below expectations of 2.8 percent.
"Weak Q4 GDP (gross domestic product) figures show that the surge in spending ahead of the consumption tax hike has yet to come," said Marcel Thieliant, Japan economist at Capital Economics.
(Read More: Is the Japan story getting threadbare?)

"Looking ahead, last-minute spending to avoid the higher sales tax will likely lead to a further acceleration in economic growth in the first quarter [of 2014], followed by a slump in the second quarter," he added.

Many economists have been expecting consumers to rush out and stock up on supplies prior to the sales tax hike due in April, which will raise consumption tax to 8 percent from 5 percent, in a move some fear could strangle Japan's economic recovery so far as consumers suffer negative wage growth.
Bloomberg Contributor | Bloomberg | Getty Images
However, as Capital Economics' Thieliant pointed out, the spending surge has not seemed to take hold yet, given the disappointing fourth quarter number.
(Read more: China PMI, Bank of Japan in spotlight this week)

And according to IHS Global Insight's Japan economist Harumi Taguchi, weak growth in wages and rising fuel and food costs could have impinged on Japanese consumers' appetite to go out and spend in preparation for the tax hike.
Now, many economists are now arguing that the weaker-than-expected fourth quarter growth figure could prompt further easing from the Bank of Japan at this week's policy meeting concluded on Tuesday, sooner rather than later, helping boost 2014's growth levels.
"With real exports seriously under-performing and the recent rise in the yen, a further monetary easing step could be in the offing earlier than expected, possibly in a surprise move at the upcoming meeting," said Uwe Parpart, chief strategist at Reorient Group.
Why hasn't Abe fired the third arrow yet?
Binay Chandgothia, Portfolio Manager at Principal Global Investors, lists out factors that are hampering Japan's structural reform process.
IHS's Taguchi added that she saw Japan's real GDP growth turning positive in the third quarter of 2014 as extra stimulus from the BOJ, combined with better external demand boosts the economy.
(Read more: Russia-Japan: Example of peace, commerce in Asia?)
Japan's growth in the fourth quarter was fueled by strong rises in private consumption – which grew 0.5 percent on quarter – and non-residential investment, which ticked up 1.3 percent on quarter.
However, faster private demand was offset by slower public demand, and a sharp decline in net exports, which shaved 0.5 percentage points off headline growth, lowered the overall figure.
And several economists flagged the sharp fall in machinery orders in December as a concern, which Capital Economics said raised the chances of a downward revision in second estimate of Q4 GDP due out on March 10.

(Read more: Nikkei's rout - Is it a signal to buy?)

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ambitious plan to reform Japan's struggling economy has included aggressive monetary easing, fiscal stimulus and structural reform. Since it has been put into action, it has been effective in dragging Japan out of recession and helped stimulate a healthy level of inflation – last recorded at 1.3 percent year on year - but doubts remain over Abe's commitment to structural reform.
"It is now the turn for private sector to drive the economy and the third arrow: the growth strategy, which has not actually had an effect yet, and this is seen as the key for sustainable growth, as well as deregulation, which will be of key importance," said IHS's Taguchi.
In Asia trade on Monday the yen traded down 0.2 percent at 101.37 per dollar, its highest level against the dollar since February 6.

By CNBC's

Do rising Singapore bankruptcies signal trouble ahead?

Concerns over Singapore's rising household debt levels may increase after data showed bankruptcy orders have risen to the highest level since 2009, but it isn't clear whether it signals trouble ahead.

Bankruptcy orders rose nearly 14 percent on year in 2013, and although the actual number was relatively low at 1,992, that is the highest number since 2009, the middle of the global financial crisis.

(Read more: Singapore, the tiny state with military clout)

"We're seeing perhaps rising costs coming from rentals and labor costs having some impact on some businesses in a very competitive landscape," said Song Seng Wun, an economist at CIMB. "It is inevitable that some businesses and individuals who may have overstretched themselves would struggle."
The wealthy Southeast Asian nation has seen soaring household debt levels in recent years as low interest rates have led to a borrowing spree, prompting the government to step in to curb demand amid concerns rates are heading higher.
Singapore's household debt-to-income ratio has risen to 2.1 times in 2012 from a low of around 1.9 times in 2008 during the Lehman crisis, according to data in the annual financial stability review, released by the city-state's central bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, in December.
The MAS estimates about 5-10 percent of borrowers have a total debt-servicing burden of over 60 percent of their income, with that potentially rising to 10-15 percent of households if mortgage rates rise by 300bps.
Song noted that banks' charge-off rate for credit cards at the end of December was at 5 percent, up from 4.8 percent at the end of 2012 and 4.3 percent at the end of 2011.

"It tells a story to a certain extent," he said. "The amount written off by banks is still modest, but nonetheless, the trend is there," Song noted.

(Read more: Higher wealth taxes on the cards for Singapore?)

Changing cultural values may also be driving some of the increase in bankruptcy orders. Traditionally for Asian families, declaring bankruptcy would be considered a "loss of face" and would be avoided.
"It's less taboo nowadays, certainly it's much more the case than say a decade ago," Song said. "With people encouraged to be entrepreneurs, there's less of a stigma to be declared bankrupt."
A stronger entrepreneurial spirit does appear to be driving some of the increase in bankruptcy orders.
While "traditional" problems – such as people living beyond their means and racking up debt on credit cards and auto loans – drive many bankruptcies, entrepreneurship gone wrong is spurring more filings, said R Nandakumar, an attorney who does insolvency work for both companies and individuals.
"The bank will normally require personal guarantees from the director (of a company) for financing," Nandakumar said. "If the company fails, then the directors become liable."
(Read more: Singapore dollar still draws safe haven seekers)
While the percentage increase in the number of bankruptcy orders is shocking, one factor likely to help keep the absolute number low – and debtors negotiating directly with their creditors – is that filing for bankruptcy in Singapore is far from the relatively painless process in many Western countries.
"It's not an easy process. Going through the bankruptcy regime in Singapore is actually difficult," Nandakumar said.
Not only will bankrupts need to transfer assets to an official assignee and make payments for three to five years, but they could be disqualified from being officers at companies and will need to apply for permission for any trips outside the country, Nandakumar noted.
Indeed, with those high hurdles that come with bankruptcy, Nandakumar believes the rise in bankruptcy orders may have less to do with economic travails and more related to the city-state's population increase – around 5.4 million people lived in the city-state at the end of 2013, up from 4.0 million in 2000.
—By CNBC'

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