Monday, 10 November 2008 15:13 Written by John Jagerson Forex Intermarket Analysis
I suppose it is a little anti-climactic to propose that the dramatic $586 billion Chinese stimulus package announced today is not likely to have an impact on the Aussie. The Australian currency has been hit by deleveraging carry traders, falling commodity prices and plummeting demand for goods and materials from Asia this year and that situation is not likely to change despite the measures taken by Beijing.China Stimulus
Trying to buy your way out of a recession or economic collapse does not typically work and the traditionally slow moving and centralized infrastructure in China is further disadvantaged in dealing with its own economic problems. With declining demand in the US and Western Europe manufacturers and exporters in China are still likely to see cutbacks in the long term, which means reduced demand from Australia.
The stimulus may help to slow that decline but ultimately the global economy is likely to impact the Australians more than anything else. Traders are making their bets today on what they think the stimulus is likely to do for demand from Australia and the news doesn't look good. The AUD is losing ground to most of the majors after an initial rally at the beginning of the week. At this point it looks like the bears are still in control of the AUD, which should help AUD/JPY and AUD/USD shorts in the near term.
ANM World Wide
Earth
Minggu, 16 November 2008
ketua Fed Bernanke masih memberi peluang untuk memangkas suku bunga lebih lanjut
Warning that financial markets remain under "severe strain," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pledged Friday to work closely with other central banks to fix global financial problems and left open the door to a fresh interest rate cut to help brace the sinking U.S. economy.
Ben Bernanke
Ted S. Warren / AP
Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke.
"The continuing volatility of markets and recent indicators of economic performance confirm that challenges remain," Bernanke said in remarks prepared for a central banking conference in Frankfurt, Germany. "For this reason, policymakers will remain in close contact, monitor developments closely and stand ready to take additional steps should conditions warrant."
* Click here for full text of his speech.
The Fed chief's remarks appeared to reinforce the view of Wall Street investors and economists that the Fed probably will lower interest rates again on Dec. 16, its last regularly scheduled meeting this year.
The Fed's key rate is now at 1 percent.
Although the Fed has ratcheted down rates and taken a flurry of unprecedented actions to arrest the worst financial since the Great Depression, deep problems remain.
Credit is still not flowing normally in the U.S. and overseas, hobbling not only the domestic economy but also the global economy, which many believe is edging toward recession.
Bernanke's remarks come as President Bush and other world leaders descend on Washington for an extraordinary summit to explore options for economic relief and develop plans to prevent a repeat of the type of housing, credit and financial crises now endangering the world economy.
American consumers are reeling under all the economy's problems, a government report out Friday showed. Rising unemployment, shrinking nest eggs and falling home values have made consumers less inclined to spend.
* Slideshow: Jobs Most At Risk
The Commerce Department reported that retail sales dropped by 2.8 percent in October, the largest amount on record. That broke the old record—a 2.65 percent decline—in November 2001, following the terrorist attacks.
The retail sales report was just the latest piece of news showing the economy got off to a dismal start in the final quarter of this year. The nation's unemployment rate zoomed to 6.5 percent in October, a 14-year high, the government reported last week.
All that is reinforcing analysts' predictions that the economy is continuing to shrink in the current October-December quarter.
The economy contracted in the third quarter as consumers sharply cut back on their spending.
If economic activity in the fourth quarter declines, it would satisfy one classic definition of a recession. That is, two straight quarters of shrinking economic activity.
RELATED LINKS
Current DateTime: 05:03:29 16 Nov 2008
LinksList Documentid: 27716666
* Full Text of Bernanke's Remarks
* Paulson Urges (non-TARP) Aid
* Slideshow: Budget Busted States
The epic proportions of the current financial crisis along with the global economic slowdown have been an occasion for unprecedented international policy coordination, Bernanke said. Most notably, the Fed and other major central banks on Oct. 8 joined together to slash interest rates, the first coordinated action of this type in the Fed's history.
"The coordinated rate cut was intended to send a strong signal to the public and to markets of our resolve to act together to address global economic challenges," Bernanke said.
The Fed also has set up new programs to supply billions of dollars to other central banks—in exchange for those countries' currencies—to help ease heavy demand for dollars in many countries.
"The recent sharp deterioration in conditions in funding markets left some participants outside the U.S. without adequate access to short-term dollar financing," Bernanke explained.
In mid-October, the Fed eliminated limits on the sizes of these so-called "swap" arrangements with the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and Switzerland's central bank.
Although these and the central banks' other actions have helped ease some stresses, financial markets remain under "severe strain," Bernanke said.
Copyright 2008 Reuters. Click for restrictions.
Ben Bernanke
Ted S. Warren / AP
Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke.
"The continuing volatility of markets and recent indicators of economic performance confirm that challenges remain," Bernanke said in remarks prepared for a central banking conference in Frankfurt, Germany. "For this reason, policymakers will remain in close contact, monitor developments closely and stand ready to take additional steps should conditions warrant."
* Click here for full text of his speech.
The Fed chief's remarks appeared to reinforce the view of Wall Street investors and economists that the Fed probably will lower interest rates again on Dec. 16, its last regularly scheduled meeting this year.
The Fed's key rate is now at 1 percent.
Although the Fed has ratcheted down rates and taken a flurry of unprecedented actions to arrest the worst financial since the Great Depression, deep problems remain.
Credit is still not flowing normally in the U.S. and overseas, hobbling not only the domestic economy but also the global economy, which many believe is edging toward recession.
Bernanke's remarks come as President Bush and other world leaders descend on Washington for an extraordinary summit to explore options for economic relief and develop plans to prevent a repeat of the type of housing, credit and financial crises now endangering the world economy.
American consumers are reeling under all the economy's problems, a government report out Friday showed. Rising unemployment, shrinking nest eggs and falling home values have made consumers less inclined to spend.
* Slideshow: Jobs Most At Risk
The Commerce Department reported that retail sales dropped by 2.8 percent in October, the largest amount on record. That broke the old record—a 2.65 percent decline—in November 2001, following the terrorist attacks.
The retail sales report was just the latest piece of news showing the economy got off to a dismal start in the final quarter of this year. The nation's unemployment rate zoomed to 6.5 percent in October, a 14-year high, the government reported last week.
All that is reinforcing analysts' predictions that the economy is continuing to shrink in the current October-December quarter.
The economy contracted in the third quarter as consumers sharply cut back on their spending.
If economic activity in the fourth quarter declines, it would satisfy one classic definition of a recession. That is, two straight quarters of shrinking economic activity.
RELATED LINKS
Current DateTime: 05:03:29 16 Nov 2008
LinksList Documentid: 27716666
* Full Text of Bernanke's Remarks
* Paulson Urges (non-TARP) Aid
* Slideshow: Budget Busted States
The epic proportions of the current financial crisis along with the global economic slowdown have been an occasion for unprecedented international policy coordination, Bernanke said. Most notably, the Fed and other major central banks on Oct. 8 joined together to slash interest rates, the first coordinated action of this type in the Fed's history.
"The coordinated rate cut was intended to send a strong signal to the public and to markets of our resolve to act together to address global economic challenges," Bernanke said.
The Fed also has set up new programs to supply billions of dollars to other central banks—in exchange for those countries' currencies—to help ease heavy demand for dollars in many countries.
"The recent sharp deterioration in conditions in funding markets left some participants outside the U.S. without adequate access to short-term dollar financing," Bernanke explained.
In mid-October, the Fed eliminated limits on the sizes of these so-called "swap" arrangements with the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and Switzerland's central bank.
Although these and the central banks' other actions have helped ease some stresses, financial markets remain under "severe strain," Bernanke said.
Copyright 2008 Reuters. Click for restrictions.
Citygroup berencana memangkas 10% karyawannya diseluruh dunia
Salah satu dunia perbankan yaitu citigroup berencana akan melakukan pemangkasan karyawan berita ini dapat dilihat di http://www.cnbc.com/id/27737329
Citigroup plans to shed about 10 percent of its global workforce, a person familiar with the matter said Friday, as it tries to restore profit and quiet mounting criticism of Chief Executive Vikram Pandit.
Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit plans to make a dramatic statement Monday morning about major cut backs in the struggling firm's workforce aimed at calming market fears that the troubled financial services giant isn't taking the steps necessary to address its many ills, which include a bloated cost structured that has sent shares of its stock reeling, people close to the company said.
These people say that as of Saturday afternoon the exact size of the cuts is not known, but it's expected to be higher than the 23,000 cuts the firm made as of end of the third quarter to its workforce of approximately 350,000 worldwide. These people say the overall size of the cuts that Pandit will announce during a highly anticipated town hall meeting could add up to close to 40,000 depending on the number of asset sales, such as spinning off businesses the firm could pull off in addition to additional planned layoffs.
Citigroup plans to shed about 10 percent of its global workforce, a person familiar with the matter said Friday, as it tries to restore profit and quiet mounting criticism of Chief Executive Vikram Pandit.
Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit plans to make a dramatic statement Monday morning about major cut backs in the struggling firm's workforce aimed at calming market fears that the troubled financial services giant isn't taking the steps necessary to address its many ills, which include a bloated cost structured that has sent shares of its stock reeling, people close to the company said.
These people say that as of Saturday afternoon the exact size of the cuts is not known, but it's expected to be higher than the 23,000 cuts the firm made as of end of the third quarter to its workforce of approximately 350,000 worldwide. These people say the overall size of the cuts that Pandit will announce during a highly anticipated town hall meeting could add up to close to 40,000 depending on the number of asset sales, such as spinning off businesses the firm could pull off in addition to additional planned layoffs.
Indonesia Perlu Debt Resolution untuk Atasi Krisis
Jakarta - Indonesia perlu melakukan debt resolution (resolusi utang) terutama utang luar
negeri dalam rangka mengantisipasi krisis ekonomi yang masih akan melanda Indonesia
di tahun 2009.
Hal tersebut dikemukakan oleh Ekonom Kepala The Indonesia Economic Intelligence
Sunarsip di sela-sela acara diskusi Economic & Banking Outlook 2009, Jakarta, Minggu
(16/11/2008).
"Saya mengusulkan pemerintah bisa membuat resolusi terhadap utang luar negeri untuk
mengantisipasi krisis ekonomi," katanya.
Ia mengatakan, hingga triwulan III 2008 utang pokok dan bunga utang luar negeri
pemerintah dan swasta sudah mencapai US$ 147,4 triliun. Tingginya pembayaran
pinjaman luar negeri tersebut menjadi salah satu penyebab tingginya permintaan valas
sehingga menekan kurs rupiah.
Resolusi utang tersebut juga dimaksudkan untuk mengurangi dampak terhadap cicilan
pokok dan bunga pinjaman luar negeri. "Caranya bisa dengan me-reschedule kembali
jadwal pembayaran utang. Dari sekarang lakukan negosiasi antara debitur lokal
bersama kreditur asing," ucapnya.
Menurutnya, hal tersebut perlu segera dilakukan ketika posisi Indonesia sekarang ini
masih relatif aman, sehingga tidak terlambat seperti ketika krisis tahun 1998.
"Mumpung sekarang krisis masih under control, debt resolution harus dilakukan
segera," ungkapnya. Terutama untuk pinjaman dari swasta.
Menurutnya, jika sebuah perusahaan swasta memiliki pinjaman yang cukup tinggi maka
mempengaruhi pengurangan kemampuan cash flow-nya sehingga perusahaan tersebut
membutuhkan insentif. "Akhirnya bisa menunda pembayaran pajak kepada negara,"
imbuhnya।
सुम्बेर : http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2008/11/16/164504/1037745/4/indonesia-perlu-debt-resolution-untuk-atasi-krisis
negeri dalam rangka mengantisipasi krisis ekonomi yang masih akan melanda Indonesia
di tahun 2009.
Hal tersebut dikemukakan oleh Ekonom Kepala The Indonesia Economic Intelligence
Sunarsip di sela-sela acara diskusi Economic & Banking Outlook 2009, Jakarta, Minggu
(16/11/2008).
"Saya mengusulkan pemerintah bisa membuat resolusi terhadap utang luar negeri untuk
mengantisipasi krisis ekonomi," katanya.
Ia mengatakan, hingga triwulan III 2008 utang pokok dan bunga utang luar negeri
pemerintah dan swasta sudah mencapai US$ 147,4 triliun. Tingginya pembayaran
pinjaman luar negeri tersebut menjadi salah satu penyebab tingginya permintaan valas
sehingga menekan kurs rupiah.
Resolusi utang tersebut juga dimaksudkan untuk mengurangi dampak terhadap cicilan
pokok dan bunga pinjaman luar negeri. "Caranya bisa dengan me-reschedule kembali
jadwal pembayaran utang. Dari sekarang lakukan negosiasi antara debitur lokal
bersama kreditur asing," ucapnya.
Menurutnya, hal tersebut perlu segera dilakukan ketika posisi Indonesia sekarang ini
masih relatif aman, sehingga tidak terlambat seperti ketika krisis tahun 1998.
"Mumpung sekarang krisis masih under control, debt resolution harus dilakukan
segera," ungkapnya. Terutama untuk pinjaman dari swasta.
Menurutnya, jika sebuah perusahaan swasta memiliki pinjaman yang cukup tinggi maka
mempengaruhi pengurangan kemampuan cash flow-nya sehingga perusahaan tersebut
membutuhkan insentif. "Akhirnya bisa menunda pembayaran pajak kepada negara,"
imbuhnya।
सुम्बेर : http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2008/11/16/164504/1037745/4/indonesia-perlu-debt-resolution-untuk-atasi-krisis
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