Apakah China yang terbaik dari pekerjaan yang buruk?

Dengan para analis dan investor mengambil pandangan yang semakin bearish pada pasar negara berkembang , Cina mungkin menawarkan yang terbaik dari pekerjaan yang buruk , menurut Jefferies , kelompok perbankan investasi global.
" Kami mengharapkan China untuk sekali lagi mengacaukan kritikus menghasilkan outperformance relatif kuat dibandingkan pasar negara berkembang , " kata Jefferies dalam sebuah catatan . Kelompok ini menambahkan bahwa hal itu mendukung pandangan konsensus yang diharapkan ekuitas di pasar negara maju akan mengungguli pasar negara berkembang tahun ini .
( Baca lebih lanjut : Beberapa fund manager berubah positif pada pasar negara berkembang )Putar VideoMuncul pertumbuhan pasar ' mengecewakan ' : HSBCMurat Ulgen , kepala ekonom untuk Eropa Tengah dan Timur dan Sub - Sahara Afrika di HSBC , mengatakan pasar negara berkembang telah tumbuh namun pertumbuhan telah " mengecewakan " .
Jefferies telah mengambil " sederhana bearish " panggilan pada China , tetapi mengharapkan peningkatan perdagangan global , tekanan inflasi yang terjaga dan reformasi finansial yang sedang berlangsung akan memastikan pasar ekuitas daratan keluar ke depan dari rekan-rekan emerging market .
" Ekspektasi pengetatan kebijakan moneter AS , dolar AS menguat dan penurunan harga batubara umumnya menjadi positif untuk pasar saham China , " katanya .
( Baca selengkapnya : Bursa saham China mungkin murah , tapi mereka bisa mendapatkan lebih murah )
Jefferies mengharapkan dolar AS akan menguat karena pasar mulai mengharapkan kenaikan suku bunga pada tahun 2015 . Hal ini , pada gilirannya , akan melemahkan nilai tukar Asia bahkan sebagai mata uang China cenderung menguat.
Harapan dari pengetatan moneter di AS telah menekan pasar negara berkembang selama tahun lalu . Dari bulan Mei sampai September, ekspektasi bahwa Federal Reserve akan mulai meruncing pembelian aset memacu penurunan tajam di pasar Asia . Pasar China secara umum terisolasi karena mata uangnya tidak mengambang bebas .
Tapi Jefferies mencatat bahwa perekonomian China masih menghadapi headwinds . " Banyak reformasi bahwa China harus melakukan yang ideologis dan karena itu mungkin memakan waktu lebih lama untuk menghasilkan perbaikan ekonomi yang mendasari untuk standar hidup dan pendapatan , " katanya .Putar VideoMacquarie : Banyak peluang China pada tahun 2014Sam Le Cornu , Senior Portfolio Manager , Asia Equities Tercatat di Macquarie menjelaskan mengapa dia bullish di pasar Cina.
Yang pasti , tidak semua orang suam-suam kuku di China .
Deutsche Bank memperkirakan saham China rally 20 persen pada tahun 2014 .
" Prospek pasar kami didasarkan pada harapan kami dari pertumbuhan pendapatan yang lebih kuat dari perkiraan serta indeks rating kembali pada pemulihan pertumbuhan siklus dan dampak positif dari reformasi , " kata Deutsche Bank dalam sebuah catatan . " Kami percaya bahwa reformasi kemungkinan akan meningkatkan konsensus pasar pada potensi pertumbuhan China dan membantu mengurangi kekhawatiran tentang risiko makro dan ( EPS ) volatilitas laba - per - saham. "
( Baca lebih lanjut : kerangka buruk - pinjaman China menghantui pasar )
Ini mencatat perdagangan indeks MSCI China hanya 9,1 kali perkiraan konsensus pendapatan untuk 2014. " Ini berarti bahwa pasar mengharapkan beberapa perlambatan signifikan dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pertumbuhan EPS pada tahun 2014 , yang kita anggap tidak mungkin , " katanya , mencatat mereka mengharapkan pertumbuhan ekonomi untuk mempercepat menjadi 8,6 persen pada tahun 2014 dan EPS meningkat sebesar 13 persen .

By CNBC

China’s Credit Hole Seen Limiting 2014 Growth Prospects

China’s new credit probably fell by a record in the second half amid a crackdown on speculative lending, limiting prospects for economic expansion this year as policy makers focus on controlling financial risks.
The broadest measure, aggregate financing, was 7.1 trillion yuan ($1.2 trillion) based on published figures plus economists’ median estimate for December data due in coming days. That would be about 931 billion yuan less than in July-to-December 2012, the largest drop in figures going back to 2002.
China’s leaders are set to be tested in their willingness to sacrifice economic growth to tame a record debt buildup that’s evoked comparisons to Japan before its lost decade. Money-market cash crunches in June and December highlighted President Xi Jinping’s efforts to rein in borrowing after a $1.7 trillion first-half increase in aggregate financing.
“Their focus is more about containing debt growth,” said Yao Wei, China economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. “Sometime over the course of 2014 they will realize the slowdown, the deceleration, is worse than expected and they will loosen their stance a little bit.”
China’s economy probably grew 7.6 percent in 2013, the State Council said last month. That would tie 1999’s pace as the lowest since 1990 and be just above the 7.5 percent growth goal for the year. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News last month see a 7.4 percent expansion in 2014.
“For the sake of long-term sustainability, China should endure further growth deceleration than we are seeing now,” Yao said.

Credit Estimates

Estimates for December’s aggregate financing from 13 economists range from 1.04 trillion yuan to 1.5 trillion yuan, with a median of 1.15 trillion yuan, and compare with 1.63 trillion yuan a year earlier.
China’s cabinet, led by Premier Li Keqiang, has imposed new controls on the multi-trillion-dollar shadow-banking industry with an order that targets off-the-books loans and shores up enforcement of current rules, three people familiar with the matter said this week. Last week, the National Audit Office reported that local-government debt including contingent liabilities swelled to a record 17.9 trillion yuan as of June.
Shadow financing poses risks both to the system as a whole and to individual lenders and borrowers. In the city of Tangshan in northern Hebei province last week, Zhao Ge said he’s concerned he may lose part of the 1 million yuan he loaned to a steel plant has been idle for more than a year. The government dismantled its furnace in a capacity-reduction campaign in late November.

Principal Risk

“When I loaned the plant money, I didn’t think too much about the risks -- I thought about the 2 percent monthly interest,” said Zhao, who gave his age as “almost 50.” “So far about a third of my principal has been paid back, but the remaining two-thirds is in danger.
The People’s Bank of China may report that new local-currency loans were 575 billion yuan in December, based on analysts’ median estimate, up from 454 billion yuan a year earlier.
The broader decline in second-half new credit was the result of having fewer projects to support, said Jimmy Zhu, an economist at FXPrimus Ltd. in Singapore. ‘‘In August and September of 2012, there was nearly a hard landing,” Zhu said. The policies to aid the economy in the second half of 2013 weren’t as significant, he said.
System-wide credit growth, as measured by the outstanding level of aggregate financing, may slow to 16.5 percent at the end of 2014 from 18.8 percent in 2013, Bank of America Corp. said in a Jan. 6 report.

Default Chances

“Though we don’t expect a nationwide debt and banking crisis, we believe the chance of some bond and trust loan defaults will rise significantly in 2014,” economists led by Lu Ting in Hong Kong wrote. “The government may also need some defaults to develop a more disciplined financial market.”
Record debt threatens to trigger a financial crisis in China, as liabilities at non-financial companies may rise to more than 150 percent of gross domestic product in 2014, according to Haitong Securities Co.
China will probably see a relatively lengthy cash squeeze in 2014, on local governments’ needs and increasing demand for housing credit, Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the government’s Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote in an article published in yesterday’s Securities Daily.
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Xiaoqing Pi in Beijing at xpi1@bloomberg.net; Scott Lanman in Beijing at slanman@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net

US still faces 'too big to fail’: Fed's Gary Stern

The United States and global markets alike are still plagued by the threat of financial institutions that are "too big to fail," Gary Stern, former president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, told CNBC on Monday.
"We still have a 'too big to fail' problem," he said, referring to the theory that some financial institutions are so large that their collapse could send shock waves through the economy.

But Stern told "Closing Bell" that some of the steps taken by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Federal Reserve have resulted in progress. For example, he said, the implementation of the so-called living will, or recovery and resolution plan, is a move toward increased transparency.

(Read more: Bank crackdown actually ups risk: Bove)
"I think if that is done well ... if the regulators insist that it be done well and they get bank board of directors involved, we can rein in—not eliminate—but rein in too big to fail, diminish the scale of the problem, reduce the probability of severe financial crises," Stern said.

Economist Simon Johnson, speaking at the American Economic Association's annual meeting in Philadelphia this weekend, countered that the living will does not provide enough transparency, for instance, about which pension funds or global money market funds are exposed to a troubled bank.
Stern agreed with that assertion but said it's a good start.

"We've got to pay attention to who the counterparties are, who has the exposure, which markets do these institutions rely on for funding and so forth," he said. "Those are issues that require a fair amount of resources to really get your arms around. But it's not impossible, and I think good process is being made."

—By CNBC's Drew Sandholm

Oil prices could 'crater' in 2014, Bremmer says: But 'dream' scenario could become a nightmare

It what sounds like a dream scenario for U.S. consumers, Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, says oil prices could "crater" in 2014 and OPEC could "fall apart."

But a serious decline in energy prices could lead to a nightmare for U.S. policymakers as "expanding unrest" in the Middle East is one of Bremmer's 'top risks' of 2014.

First, the good news: If a comprehensive deal over Iran's nuclear program is reached -- and Bremmer sees a-better-than 50% chance it will -- "then oil prices are cratering through $80" (the presumptive floor currently set by the Saudis), he says. "OPEC falls apart in that environment."

Again, this sounds like great news for American businesses and consumers, as well as emerging marketeconomies. 

Related: “A Real American Story”: Why the Fracking Revolution Happened Here

But despite increased domestic production America is not "energy independent" -- nor likely to get there anytime soon. The U.S. cannot ignore developments in the Middle East, even if we want to. And that's the bad news.

"The Middle East as a whole becomes more fragmented [and] more violent" if the scenario described above comes to pass, Bremmer predicts. The region "becomes less of an investment destination and starts to affect even those countries we thought of as relatively stable, like Saudi Arabia."

A 'more fragmented, more violent' Middle East is not a future forecast but current reality based on recent developments, including the expansion of Syria's civil war into neighboring Lebanon and the resurgence of anti-U.S. forces in Iraq's Anbar province.

Related: Decline of U.S. foreign policy biggest risk of 2014, not economics: Ian Bremmer

"If current trends of regime reconsolidation in Syria continue, which looks increasingly likely, the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), Al Qaeda’s fast-growing franchise operating in Syria and neighboring countries, will shift its resources this spring toward weakening the Shia-dominated government in Baghdad," Bremmer writes. "ISIS will reinforce the myriad local Sunni groups marginalized by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki’s authoritarian policies, who are more willing to join forces and take up arms against the central government in Baghdad."

The situation in Iraq is so dire, in fact, that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry felt compelled to affirm U.S. support for Baghdad on Monday -- with a major caveat.

"We’re going to help them in their fight,” Kerry said. But “we are not, obviously, contemplating returning. We are not contemplating putting boots on the ground."

Advances by ISIS are effectively reversing the gains made during the U.S. "surge" in 2007. "It's not 'Mission Accomplished'," Bremmer quips, suggesting the overall trend of increased Middle East violence and fragmentation "creates more risk of terrorism."

For the time being, Bremmer sees this terrorism as more of a local, regional story with the greatest pressure on Middle East "petrostates" and their patrons in Egypt and Tunisia, as well as on energy producers like Venezuela, Nigeria and Russia.  

It's "not clear how it's bad for the average American," he says.

But recent history paints a frightening picture of what happens when radical Islamists have opportunities to recruit and plot terrorist acts. For America to ignore these developments or disengage from the region would truly represent the failure of foreign policy Bremmer cited in part one of this interview.

by : Yahoo Finance