Japan Joins Europe in Recession, G20 Fails to Cheer

Sectors:Banks
Reuters | 16 Nov 2008 | 07:08 PM ET
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Japan sank into recession in the third quarter, even before it felt the full force of the financial crisis, and world leaders at a weekend summit gave investors little hope they could rescue the global economy.

Global Markets

With the euro zone also in recession, the U.S. economy shrinking in the third quarter and China slowing sharply, markets shrugged off pledges to stimulate growth from leaders of the Group of 20 nations.

The yen and U.S. dollar pressed higher as investors pulled cash away from emerging markets and riskier assets. Oil
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[US@CL.1 56.34 -0.70 (-1.23%) ] fell more than $1 to below $56 a barrel and stock markets slid in early Asian trading.

While the Japanese economy was weakening, the pace of the decline was unexpected. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted the economy would expand 0.1 percent. Instead it shrank by 0.1 percent as exports crumbled faster than they had thought.

The third-quarter data did not capture the full impact of the crisis that exploded in September, destroying Wall Street banks and threatening to rupture the global financial system.

Japan had largely escaped the first shockwaves of the crisis triggered last year by U.S. mortgage defaults. It felt the first major tremors in October when the Tokyo stock market crashed forcing banks to try to replenish capital and the yen surged, sideswiping exporters facing their toughest markets in decades.

"I think that it is possible for the negative growth to continue in the second half of the fiscal year," said Tatsushi Shikano, a senior economist at Tokyo's Mitsubishi UFJ Securities. "The economy abroad, especially the United States, is slowing down and it is likely that exports will remain weak," he said.

Fiscal And Monetary Steps

The euro zone is in its first recession and the U.S. economy only avoided one earlier this year because of a stimulus plan. Most economists say the United States is probably already in recession, although official data confirming that will not come until January.

Leaders of the world's 20 largest economies, meeting in Washington over the weekend to address the worst financial crisis in 80 years, agreed on a host of fiscal and monetary steps to rescue the global economy.

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But they left it to individual governments to tailor their response to their own circumstances and troubled industries.

"Taken as a whole, it does not appear that the outcome of the summit will be sufficient to stem the financial crisis. This was a high bar from the start," said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy with Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

Made Things Worse

The post-meeting statement from the group of major industrialized and developing countries contained a laundry list of reform pledges aimed at soothing volatile markets and calming consumers' worries.

"This weekend's G20 summit failed to deliver any new stimulus measures to rescue the world economy from the current recession, but at least it avoided the knee-jerk responses (such as rushed regulation) that would have made things worse," Julian Jessop at London-based Capital Economics said in a report.

"The real purpose of this summit was to agree a work program for reform of the global financial system. In that respect we would suggest that it has been a success."

The G20 statement said that all financial markets, products and participants would be subject to supervision, vowed tougher accounting rules, a review of compensation practices and greater cooperation between national regulators. Even the long-running Doha round of free-trade talks was given a new lease on life.

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* Asia Wavers, G20 Fails to Instill Confidence
* Crisis Sends Japan into Recession, Outlook Is Bleak
* Downturn Drags More Consumers Into Bankruptcy
* Tough for China to Avert Sharp Slowdown
* More Asia Pacific News

Finance ministers were told to develop specific plans for implementing the recommendations.

The first set of actions is to be completed by the end of March, and a follow-up meeting will be held by the end of April.

U.S. President-elect Barack Obama sent emissaries to the event, and issued a statement in support of a coordinated response to the global financial crisis.

With a $700 billion fund promised to stabilize the battered U.S. financial system, the outgoing Bush administration and its successor must tackle the urgent question of how, or whether, to rescue the nation's "big three" automakers.

The Senate is due on Monday to begin debating emergency legislation to provide $25 billion in aid to General Motors
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[F 1.80 -0.10 (-5.26%) ] and Chrysler LLC.

As well, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is due to speak on the economy and markets later on Monday.
Copyright 2008 Reuters.

Ekonomi RI Tumbuh 6,11%

Ekonomi RI Tumbuh 6,11%
Wahyu Daniel - detikFinance



Jakarta - Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada kuartal III-2008 tercatat sebesar 6,11% secara year on year (yoy). Sementara untuk PDB triwulan III secara q to q tumbuh 3,5%. Pertumbuhan tertinggi tercatat disektor pertanian sebesar 6,7%.

Demikian disampaikan Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Rusman Heriawan dalam konferensi pers dikantornya, Jalan DR Sutomo, Jakarta, Senin (17/11/2008).

"Pertumbuhan ekonomi kita masih menunjukkan angka yang bagus, tapi dalam proses perlambatan," jelas Ruman. Untuk pertumbuhan ekonomi secara kumulatif dari kuartal I-III 2008 tercatat sebesar 6,3%, dengan jumlah PDB Rp 3.705,3 triliun.

Pertumbuhan ekonomi RI menghadapi sejumlah tantangan seperti melemahnya pertumbuhan ekonomi adalah pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia yang melambat di kuartal III. Disamping itu, turunnya harga komoditas andalan Indonesia seperti tembakau, aluminium dan CPO ini berpengaruh pada ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi.

"Yang jadi pertimbangan antara lain lain adalah ekspor yang melambat, walau masih tumbuh positif. Ekspor melambat sampai triwulan III terhadap triwulan II atau q to q hanya tumbuh 0,03%," jelas Rusman.

"Pengeluaran rumah tangga masih positif 1,89% karena pengaruh puasa dan lebaran, tapi secara year on year melambat walaupun positif," jelas Rusman.

Analisa Tehnik By AN

Jpy Buy :
Sell : 97.90
Stop : 98.50
Intraday : 96.80 – 96.10
Daily : 95.45 – 94.75
GBP Buy :
Sell : 1.4780
Stop : 1.4860
Intraday : 1.4675 – 1.4620
Daily : 1.4520 – 1.4470
XAU Buy : 737.00
Sell :
Stop : 731.00
Intraday : 744.65 – 754.00
Daily : 754.95 – 760.00
CHF Buy : 1.1925
Sell :
Stop : 1.1865
Intraday : 1.2005 – 1.2050
Daily : 1.2090 – 1.2135
AUD Buy :
Sell : 0.6540
Stop : 0.6600
Intraday : 0.6490 – 0.6450
Daily : 0.6390 – 0.6345

Harga emas diperkirakan melonjak

Harga emas diperkirakan melonjak

SINGAPURA: Harga emas diproyeksikan menembus level US$1.000 per ounce pada 2011 akibat turunnya produksi tambang dunia, naiknya biaya penambangan, dan meningkatnya permintaan.

"Produksi tambang dunia sebenarnya mencapai puncak pada 2001 dan sejak itu pun penurunan sudah berlangsung," kata Hussein Allidina, analis komoditas Morgan Stanley, kemarin.

Harga emas naik hampir dua kali lipat dalam enam tahun terakhir dan akhirnya sempat mencapai rekor US$1.032 per ounce pada 17 Maret.

Kenaikan harga logam mulia itu dipicu pelemahan dolar AS terhadap euro dan peningkatan minyak mentah. Hal itu mendorong emas dijadikan alternatif investasi.

Pada perdagangan kemarin, harga emas untuk pengiriman segera diperdagangkan pada US$714,45 per ounce

Analisa Tehnika by MB

Support Resistance

USD/ JPY


L1. 89.30 100.75
L2. 84.20 103.10
L3. 81.10 106.00

USD/ CHF

L1. 1.1335 1.1895
L2. 1.1080 1.2425
L3. 1.0875 1.3285

USD/ CAD

L1. 1.2375 1.3460
L2. 1.2100 1.3980
L3. 1.1655 1.4505
EUR/ JPY

L1. 110.20 119.90
L2. 108.05 121.90
L3. 102.95 129.15

EUR/ CHF

L1. 1.3750 1.4655
L2. 1.3210 1.5060
L3. 1.2940 1.5560
CHF/ JPY

L1. 76.50 84.80
L2. 69.75 87.40
L3. 58.85 91.70

Analisa tehnikal by MB

Support Resistance

EUR/ USD


L1. 1.2130 1.2925
L2. 1.1590 1.3205
L3. 1.1210 1.3595

GBP/ USD

L1. 1.5065 1.6435
L2. 1.4580 1.7150
L3. 1.4155 1.7725

AUD/ USD

L1. 0.5535 0.6380
L2. 0.5380 0.6620
L3. 0.4775 0.6980

NZD/ USD

L1. 0.5120 0.5875
L2. 0.4915 0.6055
L3. 0.4650 0.6340

EUR/ GBP

L1. 0.7565 0.8195
L2. 0.7365 0.8400
L3. 0.7170 0.8840

GBP/ JPY

L1. 138.60 156.95
L2. 124.20 168.25
L3. 103.90 177.35

EUR

The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the single currency tested bids around the $1.2385 level and was capped around the $1.2925 level. The pair lost about 115 pips last week. The U.S. Treasury announced plans to abandon its US$ 700 billion purchase of toxic assets and will instead seek to capitalize banks. Fed boss Bernanke said central bankers “stand ready to take additional steps should conditions warrant.”


Germany ’s “Wise Men” are gloomy on their 2009 economic forecast and foresee a recession. The ECB’s monthly bulletin reported heightened economic uncertainty. Germany entered a technical recession and the government pledged €50 billion in new spending. France has likely averted a technical recession so far. ECB’s Ordonez, Bini Smaghi, Orphanides, and Stark said rates could come down further.



Data released in the U.S. last week saw pending home sales off 4.6%; weekly initial jobless claims were up 32,000 to 516,000; continuing jobless claims reached 3.9 million; imports fell by a record 5.6% in September; October retail sales were off 2.8%; and the mid-November University of Michigan consumer sentiment improved to 57.9.



Data released in the eurozone last week saw French October CPI off 0.1% m/m; German Q3 GDP fell 0.5% q/q; the November ZEW economic sentiment indicator rose to -53; the November ZEW economic sentiment indicator rose to -53; French September industrial output was off 0.5% m/m; and German October CPI was off 0.2% m/m and up 2.4% y/y.





YEN

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the greenback tested bids around the ¥94.45 level and was capped around the ¥99.45 level. The pair lost about 115 pips last week. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 2.72% on Friday to close at ¥8,462.39. Finance chief Nakagawa verbally intervened against the yen and BoJ’s Nakamura doesn’t see the need to cut rates again now. Aso proposed some initiatives ahead of the G20 including IMF funding. Finance chief Nakagawa verbally intervened against the yen’s strength.



Data released in Japan last week saw September industrial orders up +1.1% m/m; October wholesale prices were up 4.8% y/y; October consumer confidence weakened to 29.4; October service sector sentiment fell to 22.6; October outstanding bank loans were up 2.2% y/y; the October M3 money supply was up 0.6% y/y; the September current account surplus was off 48.8% y/y; October bankruptcies were up 13.4% y/y; October service sector printed at 22.6; October outstanding bank loans were up 2.2% y/y; the September current account surplus was off 48.8% y/y; core private sector machinery orders were off 10.4% q/q; September industrial orders were up 1.1% m/m; and October wholesale prices were up 4.8% y/y.



In Chinese news, PBoC boss Zhou said the central bank’s monetary policy has shifted to “moderately easy” from “prudent and flexible.” China announced a major US$ 586 billion economic stimulus package.



Data released in China saw October factory output growth decelerate to +8.2%; the October trade surplus reached a record US$ 35.24 billion; October CPI fell to +4.0% y/y; October retail sales were up 22.0% y/y; October PPI was up 6.6% y/y; and October fixed asset investment was up 27.2% y/y.



GBP

The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar last week as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.4560 level and was capped around the $1.5880 figure. The pair lost about 900 pips last week. BoE boss King said the central bank is prepared to cut rates again if necessary. The BoE’s quarterly inflation forecast contained the largest-ever cut in inflation forecasts, now eyeing inflation “well below” 2% by 2010. Chancellor Darling justified higher borrowing on account of the recession. Sentance said recent rate cuts will take time to reach the real economy. PM Brown suggested taxes may be reduced to help stimulate the economy.



Data released in the U.K. last week saw BRC October retail sales off 0.1% y/y; the September global goods trade deficit narrowed to ₤7.5 billion; October home sales reached a 30-year low; and October factory orders were off a record 5.6%.





CHF

The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.2000 figure and was supported around the CHF 1.1710 level. The pair gained about 165 pips last week. The Swiss government announced an CHF 890 million economic stimulus.



Data released in Switzerland last week saw the November ZEW expectations index improve to -88.5; October producer and import prices were off 0.6% m/m and up 2.9% y/y; and October consumer confidence declined to -27.





AUD

The Australian dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the Aussie tested bids around the US$ 0.6340 level and was capped around the US$ 0.6980 level. The pair lost about 260 pips last week. RBA slashed its GDP growth forecasts through 2010.




Data released in Australia last week saw November consumer confidence improve marginally; Q3 wages were up 0.9% q/q; and October business conditions worsened to -11.

Gold, Silver Rally on Inflation Expectations; Platinum Advances

Gold, Silver Rally on Inflation Expectations; Platinum Advances

By Pham-Duy Nguyen
Last Updated: November 14, 2008 14:20 EST

Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose the most in eight weeks on speculation that central banks will add more liquidity to unfreeze credit markets, spurring inflation and boosting the appeal of the precious metal. Silver and platinum also gained.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. and other countries are ready to take more action to boost lending. The dollar declined against a basket of six major currencies after dropping 0.6 percent yesterday. More liquidity will devalue currencies and stoke inflation, said Frank McGhee, the head dealer of Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago .

``Basically, the government needs and wants an inflationary spurt to turn this economy around,'' McGhee said. ``Gold is probably $100 to $150 too cheap, based on the amount of liquidity that's already been pumped into the system.''

Gold futures for December delivery rose $37.50, or 5.3 percent, to $742.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since Sept. 18. The metal is up 1.1 percent this week.

Silver futures for December delivery jumped 69 cents, or 7.8 percent, to $9.49 an ounce. The metal is down 4.7 percent this week.

Platinum futures for January delivery rose $32.10, or 3.9 percent, to $845.10 an ounce on the Nymex. Palladium for December delivery gained $2.70, or 1.3 percent, to $216.65 an ounce.

The Fed has cut its benchmark interest rate to 1 percent from 5.25 percent in September 2007 and provided more than $1 trillion in loans to financial institutions to help ease the worst credit crisis in seven decades.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. on Sept. 15 helped trigger passage of a $700 billion bailout plan by the U.S. Since then, gold traded as high as $936.30 on Oct. 10 and as low as $681 on Oct. 24.

`Awash With Dollars'

Gold may rise as the dollar begins to slide, said Walter Otstott, a senior broker at Dallas Commodity Co. in Dallas .

``Bargain hunters and investors are starting to appreciate gold for its diversification attributes,' ' Otstott said. ``Fundamentally, the world is awash with dollars, and we should see the greenback resume its long-term downward trend.''

The metal reached a record $1,033.90 in March as the decline in borrowing costs sent the dollar to an all-time low against the euro in July

Rupiah Masih di Teritori Negatif

Rupiah Masih di Teritori Negatif
Irna Gustia - detikFinance



(Foto: dok detikFinance)
Jakarta - Rupiah masih saja betah di teritori negatif yang membuat pelemahan mata uang lokal ini terhadap dolar AS terus berlanjut. Rupiah tidak bisa menghalau tekanan eksternal atas kekhatiwaran pelemahan pasar finansial global.

Pada perdagangan valas pukul 08.00 WIB, Senin (17/11/2008) rupiah ada di posisi 11.525 per dolar AS. Namun rupiah sudah mulai ditransaksikan di kisaran lebar 11.750-11.850 per dolar AS.

Hampir semua mata uang Asia bergerak variatif terhadap dolar AS sejak beberapa pekan terakhir. Pasokan dolar AS yang sedang mengering di seluruh dunia membuat kebutuhan dolar AS tetap tinggi.

Keringnya pasokan dolar AS ini membuat pelaku pasar dalam negeri terutama dari golongan importir dan korporasi harus melakukan persiapan untuk pembayaran transaksi dan utang yang jatuh tempo menjelang akhir tahun ini.

Kesepakatan dari pemimpin negara G20 yang akan membuat terobosan mengatasi krisis finansial juga belum begitu banyak direspons pasar.(ir/ir)

Ada Rp 600 Triliun Dana Deposan yang Butuh Blanket Guarantee

Ada Rp 600 Triliun Dana Deposan yang Butuh Blanket Guarantee
Wahyu Daniel - detikFinance



(Foto: dok detikcom)
Jakarta - Jumlah dana masyarakat di bank 98% memang sudah mendapat jaminan Lembaga Penjaminan Simpanan (LPS). Namun ada 2% jumlah nasabah kaya perbankan yang memiliki dana besar hingga ratusan triliun yang dananya tidak mendapat jaminan maksimal Rp 2 miliar.

Dana masyarakat kaya di bank ini yang rawan melakukan capital outflow dengan mencari bank-bank di negara yang melakukan penjaminan penuh. Maka itu Ketua Komite Tetap Fiskal dan Moneter Kadin Indonesia Bambang Soesatyo menilai sudah saatnya Indonesia melakukan penjaminan penuh dana nasabah atau blanket guarantee.

Total dana pihak ketiga (DPK) pada sistem perbankan hingga pekan kedua Oktober 2008 tercatat Rp 1.605,3 triliun. Jumlah ini memang mencerminkan adanya penambahan sebesar Rp 73,3 triliun terhitung sejak Lembaga Penjaminan Simpanan (LPS) menaikkan jumlah penjaminan menjadi Rp 2 miliar. Saat itu, total DPK sekitar Rp 1.532 triliun. Namun tetap saja mengkhawatirkan.

"Sebab dari total DPK itu, hampir Rp 600 triliun (39 persen) yang tidak dijamin. Jumlah ini representasi 2% dari total nasabah bank. Artinya, sekitar Rp 1.000 triliun DPK milik 98% nasabah. Dari jumlah Rp 600 triliun itu, lebih dari 50% atau di atas Rp 300 triliun milik individu. Mereka inilah yang diduga mulai memindahkan uangnya ke luar negeri, sehingga pekan lalu berhembus wacana tentang blanket guarantee," papar Bambang dalam pesan singkatnya kepada detikFinance, Senin (16/11/2008).

Dari komposisi DPK per Oktober 2008 itu, lanjut Bambang, terlihat urgensi blanket guarantee. Sebab meski Rp 300 triliun itu milik sekelompok kecil individu. Namun mereka dapat mendorong nasabah Rp 300 triliun lainnya milik lembaga, baik pemerintah maupun swasta ikut terbang keluar mencari posisi aman.

Kadin juga mengimbau pemerintah tidak menutup mata jika akhir-akhir ini telah terjadi pelarian dana (capital flight), baik dari pasar modal dengan pelepasan saham dan surat-surat berharga lainnya seperti Surat Utang Negara (SUN) maupun obligasi konvensional. Serta pelarian dana yang bersumber dari perbankan.

"Pemerintah harus melakukan penjaminan penuh terhadap dana nasabah bank agar tidak terjadi pelarian dana dari Indonesia ke negara-negara lain yang sudah menaikkan jaminannya. Seperti Singapura, Hong Kong, Australia, Thailand dan Vietnam," ujarnya.

Dikatakannya dalam kondisi keuangan global yang tidak menentu, pemerintah jangan lamban dalam menerapkan kebijakan penjaminan penuh. Sebab potensi larinya dana-dana pihak ketiga (DPK) perbankan ke luar negeri sangat mungkin terjadi, sehingga perlu langkah pencegahan.

"Tidak ada gunanya mempertahankan suku bunga tinggi atau BI rate 9,5% tanpa penjaminan penuh. Jadi ada baiknya segera menerbitkan Perppu atau peraturan pemerintah pengganti UU untuk menjamin dana nasabah hingga di atas Rp 2 miliar. Sebelum segala sesuatunya terlambat. Gejala kearah itu sudah terasa dengan terus tertekannya nilai rupiah terhadap dolar AS," tuturnya.(dnl/ir)