US mortgage applications near flat in latest week: MBA

Applications for U.S. home mortgages edged slightly lower in the latest week, an industry group said on Wednesday.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, slipped 0.2 percent to 403.4 in the week ended Jan. 24.
(Read more: US home prices dip in November)

The index hit its lowest level since December 2000 at the end of last year, soon after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced it would start pulling back on its $85 billion per month bond-buying program as the economy grows strong enough to stand on its own.
The interest rate on fixed 30-year mortgages averaged 4.52 percent last week, the lowest level since November and down 5 basis points from the previous week.

Mortgages

30 yr fixed 4.33% 4.42% 30 yr fixed jumbo 4.45% 4.49% 15 yr fixed 3.38% 3.55% 15 yr fixed jumbo 3.92% 4.05% 5/1 ARM 3.47% 5.40% 5/1 jumbo ARM 3.05% 4.66%

Find personalized rates: Bankrate.com

The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications slid 2.2 percent. The gauge of loan requests for home purchases, a leading indicator of home sales, rose 1.5 percent.
The survey covers over 75 percent of U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, according to MBA.
(Read more: 10 insane ways to pimp your megamansion)

--By Reuters

Buckle up! 2014 will be a bumpy ride

Get ready for a volatile year. Last week's stock market gyrations and currency swings are a sign of things to come as central banks wean investors off cheap money.

Financial experts at the World Economic Forum in Davos were cautiously optimistic about the outlook for growth in 2014, but the beginning of the end of post-crisis emergency financial support will be bumpy.

The Dow just had its worst week since 2011. And emerging market currencies got hit hard as investors fled riskier assets.
Investors were troubled by signs of weakness in China's huge manufacturing sector and a looming default in the shadow banking system. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to pull back monetary stimulus pushed things along.
"I hear way too much optimism going forward -- we're going to be in a world of much greater volatility," said BlackRock CEO Laurence Fink.
Related: Cry for me Argentina? Peso plunges
Investors had been encouraged by "good, consistent" central bank policy around the world in recent years, he said. But the next impetus for growth would depend on governments in China, Japan, the U.S. and Europe delivering on promised economic reforms.
"That troubles me, because there has been great consistency of governments dragging their feet," Fink said.
Monetary policy is already beginning to change in the U.S. and U.K., in response to stronger growth and falling unemployment.
The Federal Reserve has begun to "taper" its purchases of government bonds, and some analysts predict the Bank of England will raise interest rates as early as the fourth quarter.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said there was "no immediate need" for an increase in the cost of borrowing, and that when it comes, the process will be gradual.
But the return to more normal levels of market volatility would feel worse than it is, coming after an extended period of calm, he said.
Related: India headed for 8% growth

 

Goldman exec: World needs faster growth

The International Monetary Fund upgraded its forecast for world growth on Tuesday. It warned that the outlook would depend on the impact of the withdrawal of central bank support.
"This is clearly a new risk on the horizon, and it needs to be watched," IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said.
The flow of money back to the U.S. and other developed economies would not affect emerging markets uniformly, she added. Investors would differentiate based on political stability, commitment to reform, and signs of financial weakness.
"The risk is there, but well managed emerging markets will be able to cope with it," said Montek Ahluwalia, deputy chairman of India's planning commission.
Fink said too much attention was paid to the actions of the Fed and other central banks, and not enough to the reforms needed to respond to the massive technological changes that are destroying jobs.

Hedge funds get a reminder of how it feels to lose

By the time last Friday afternoon was finally over, managers at even some of the most successful hedge funds felt like crawling into a hole.
While the S&P 500 declined only 2.6 percent last week, the move came as a shock for many on Wall Street, which had not been hit so hard since the summer of 2012.

The pain was far worse for those exposed to emerging markets, where many hedge funds have ventured in search of bigger returns. Stocks in Turkey, for instance, are down 15 percent in U.S. dollar terms so far this year and nearly 50 percent from their peak last May.
Even with markets looking calmer Monday morning, last week's rough ride reminded hedge funds of a challenge they haven't faced in some time: Generating positive returns in a losing market.
With the S&P 500 rising every year since 2009, it has been possible to generate decent returns without keeping up.
Take 2013. The HFRI Equity Hedge Index, which tracks stock-focused funds, rose 14.6 percent while the S&P 500 rose 29.6 percent. Similarly in 2012, the Equity Hedge Index gained 7.4 percent, compared with a 13.4 percent rise in the S&P 500.
Such a performance was probably enough to please many investors who have entrusted their money with hedge funds. The thinking is that hedge funds can deliver stable returns in any market, even if they lag a bit when stocks soar.

(Read more: Is P&G the right gamble in the selloff?

But the real test comes when markets swoon. While it helps to have short positions in place to protect against a broad selloff, funds still need to make some very smart bets to generate gains in a falling market. Just look at 2008, when the Equity Hedge Index fell 27 percent percent versus the 38 percent decline in the S&P 500.
The good news: Any panic selling could throw up opportunities. Indeed, some hedge funds say they would welcome a further selloff so they can buy stocks that have been on their shopping lists but remain too expensive.
But succeeding in a choppy market requires both the ability to pick good ideas and time them right. By the end of 2014, it may be clearer which funds have real talent.
Indeed, that could be a positive for investors who have placed their money with hedge funds and paid them handsome fees in the last few years. While the hedge fund industry slimmed down and fees fell after the financial crisis in 2008, assets under management have returned to record highs. It may not be the worst thing for investors in hedge funds to see managers put to another test.

—By CNBC

CEO of Bitcoin exchange arrested

The CEO of a bitcoin exchange has been arrested on charges of selling bitcoins to be used to buy and sell illegal drugs anonymously.
Charlie Shrem, the 24-year-old CEO of BitInstant, along with Robert M. Faiella, a 52-year-old bitcoin broker and user of Silk Road, were both arrested according to a federal criminal complaint from the Southern District of New York.
According to the complaint, both men are accused of participating in a scheme to sell more than $1 million in Bitcoins to users of "Silk Road," the underground website that allowed people to anonymously buy and sell illegal drugs.
Shrem would change cash to bitcoins for Faiella, who was running an underground bitcoin exchange under the name BTCKing on Silk Road's website, which was shut down about four months ago.
In addition to money laundering, Shrem is also charged with failing to file any suspicious activity regarding Faiella's illegal transactions, which the Department of Justice said is in violation of the Bank Secrecy Act.
It was also noted in the complaint that Shrem used Silk Road himself to purchase drugs, including marijuana brownies.
(Read more: CNBC Explains: How to mine bitcoin on a budget)
"The charges announced today depict law enforcement's commitment to identifying those who promote the sale of illegal drugs throughout the world. Hiding behind their computers, both defendants are charged with knowingly contributing to and facilitating anonymous drug sales, earning substantial profits along the way," said James J. Hunt, the Drug Enforcement Administration acting special agent in charge of the case, in the compaint.
BitInstant's backers include Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, who have a number of investments in bitcoin start-ups.

"When we invested in BitInstant in the fall of 2012, its management made a commitment to us that they would abide by all applicable laws—including money laundering laws—and we expected nothing less," the Winkelvoss twins said in a statement.

"Although BitInstant is not named in today's indictment of Charlie Shrem, we are obviously deeply concerned about his arrest," they said. "We were passive investors in BitInstant and will do everything we can to help law enforcement officials."

Source: Wikipedia

Charlie Shrem

Shrem is listed as a board member of the Bitcoin Foundation, which is an organization that works to standardize and promote the use of bitcoins.
BitInstant's website is currently down.
(Read more: New York state to mull bitcoin licensing proposal)
Shrem was arrested Sunday at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York and Faiella was arrested Monday at his home in Cape Coral, Fla.
CNBC reached out to Shrem's lawyer for comment, but has not yet received a response. And the Manhattan U.S. attorney's office does not yet have the name of Faiella's attorney.

—By CNBC

Are fears of an Australian housing bubble overblown?

Rising property prices in Australia, deemed one of the most expensive property markets in the world, have reignited worries over a bubble, but local residents and strategists remain unconvinced.

Prices in Australia have more than tripled since 1997, as low interest rates, high incomes and growing Asian demand worked to propel prices higher. There was a brief period of respite between 2011 and mid-2013 when prices fell 4 percent, but in recent times they have picked up again, rising at their fastest pace in three years in 2013 at near 10 percent.
This week Sydney and Melbourne were branded the fourth and fifth most unaffordable cities to buy a house out of 360 metropolises profiled in the Demographia International Housing Affordability survey published.
(Read More: Hong Kong's housing market is 'least affordable': survey)
A two bedroom apartment in central Sydney, for example, can fetch AUS$1.25 million ($1.1 million) according to property website Domain.
Rebecca Lipscomb, a 32-year old nurse from Sydney, told CNBC many of her peers are being forced to rent because house prices in the more desirable suburbs of Sydney are beyond what they can afford.
"One or two generations ago the Aussie dream was to have a house, but that's changed now. People have to move to smaller apartments, or away from central Sydney, or even overseas," she said.
"You just don't get a lot for your money. Young people have to turn to their parents for help. Unless you are in a couple, and are both on good salaries, then it is very hard to buy."

(Read more: Where's the next property bubble building?)
According to Nick Maroutsos, founder and managing director at Kapstream Capital, the pace at which Sydney house prices have spiked has been unsettling. As of January 24, house prices in Sydney rose 13.08 percent over the past 12 months, according to the RP Data-Rismark house price report, while Melbourne saw a 10.82 percent rise and Perth, a 7.63 percent jump.

"Is it a bubble? Possibly, which is another reason why the Reserve Bank of Australia will be reluctant to cut interest rates," he said. "First time homeowners are being priced out of the market and prices continue to head north. It is quite unsettling in that after a brief plateau the appreciation continued, but demand is high and supply is low."

Play Video

Australian dollar rises following strong inflation data

CNBC's Matthew Taylor reports on the market reaction following Australia's stronger-than-expected fourth quarter inflation data.

But talk of a bubble in Australia's frothy property market has been around since 2001, and some analysts believe these concerns are cyclical and usually prove unfounded.

This week Fitch Ratings said it expects Australia's house prices to moderate over the next decade, helping cool some of the recent bubble talk. It said affordability will deteriorate in the near term, as house prices continue to rise more than income levels, but longer term it was not feasible for house price growth to excessively disconnect from incomes.

(Read More: Housing market could be facing another bubble: Shiller)
Evan Lucas, strategist at trading firm IG, said many commentators from Europe and the U.S. who have warned a bubble in Australia's housing are simply misinformed.

"If you look at the set-up of the country, 87 percent of the population live in major cities, so there will always be demand and not enough supply. It's different from other economies for that reason, and a lot of international commentators don't factor that in. That's why we have had a lot of calls for a bubble which haven't materialized," he added.

Another concern is that if interest rates rise from their current record low, borrowers could get squeezed and first time buyers could find it even more difficult to get on the property ladder, given that unemployment is expected to rise and many buyers are on low to medium incomes. There has also been some concern over negative gearing, when investors borrow to buy an asset, but the income generated doesn't cover the interest on the loan.

(Read more: 2014 a 'litmus test' for Australia economy: Goldman)

Play Video

The most unaffordable cities to buy property

According to the Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey, Hong Kong was ranked the most unaffordable city to buy property. CNBC's Julia Wood reports.

But Matthew Circosta, economist at Moody's Analytics, said he didn't perceive this to be a problem.

"Even if rates do rise, homeowners aren't going to feel much of a pinch as most are locked into fixed rate mortgages. It's not going to sap new demand. Prices might see a cooling, but they are not going to fall into a hole," he added.

Sam Aftasi, a 33-year-old account service manager, who owns two properties in Melbourne, told CNBC he also had a fixed rate mortgages so was not concerned about rising rates, and also thought bubble fears were overblown.

"I've read a lot about China and how they have all these investors speculating in the market, you don't have that situation here because people actually live in their homes and own them. We also have a large migration into Australia, so there is actually a shortage of homes, so when people say there is a bubble, there actually can't be a bubble because we don't have enough homes," he added.
(Read more: Why the Aussie dollar may spiral to 85 cents)

— By CNBC

China flash HSBC PMI falls to 49.6 in January, first contraction in 6 months

China's manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in six months in January, a private survey by HSBC showed on Thursday.
The flash HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 49.6 in the month, compared with a final reading of 50.5 in December.
Analysts tell CNBC the data, while possibly skewed, raised potential concerns for the world's second biggest economy.
"There are probably some New Year distortions in here as it is right between the holidays, but it does suggest not all is well in China's economy. I wouldn't get my hopes up for a big, strong pick-up right after Chinese New Year," said Frederic Neumann, MD & Co-Head of Asian Economics Research at HSBC.
"Interest rates are rising in China, we know the government is pursuing aggressive reforms; a strong pick-up is not in the cards for China," he added.
The reaction in the markets was swift: the Australian dollar dipped 0.5 percent against the greenback, while the Shanghai Composite widened its losses.

HSBC's Neumann noted with concern that despite improving U.S. and European growth, exports in China just aren't responding like they have in the past.
"We have again, a contraction in new export orders. The trade flow just isn't ramping up as we're used to and that reflects in part a decline of competitiveness of China's economy and that trade is no longer a big driver for the Chinese manufacturing sector. It is increasingly domestic demand and that engine isn't firing either so China is really challenged on both fronts, he said."

Driven Regional Exchange, JCI Up 10 Points

Jakarta - Composite Index ( JCI ) rose 10 points, driven by the strengthening of exchanges in Asia . Selective buying began to appear in the stocks that are already subject to correction yesterday .
While the rupiah against the U.S. dollar ( U.S. ) opened remained at Rp 12,115 per U.S. dollar, the same as the position at the close of trading yesterday .
In preopening trading , stock index rose 10.77 points ( 0.24 %) to 4442.35 . While the LQ45 Index increased 3.15 points to 751.51 .
He began trading on Tuesday ( 21/01/2014 ) , JCI opened up 16.53 points ( 0.37 %) to 4447.12 . LQ45 index opened up 3.21 points at 751.63 .
Bank shares are still subject to correction due to profit taking . But the correction is not too deep so as not to drag JCI into the red zone .
Up at 9:05 Jats time , drove JCI 19.23 points ( 0.44 %) to 4450.89 . While LQ45 Index rose 3.82 points to 752.29 .
Yesterday JCI maintain upward momentum since the morning and managed to get 19 points . Negative sentiment slowing Chinese economy could be pushed well by market participants.

Wall Street stock market in the U.S. closed on Monday to commemorate Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Investors will likely watch on developments in China after the PBOC yesterday poured liquidity facilities to slow rising interest rates.

Asian exchange compact rose this morning, led by the Japanese market. This positive sentiment rose successfully pushed IDX.

Here's the situation in the Asian bourses this morning:

Shanghai Composite Index rose 5.95 points (0.30%) to 1997.20.
The Hang Seng Index rose 150.96 points (0.66%) to 23079.91.
The Nikkei 225 index jumped 188.69 points (1.21%) to 15830.37.
Straits Times Index added 5.52 points (0.18%) to 3134.31.

China’s shadow banking reform faces its first test

China's push to reform its shadow banking sector is about to get its first big test as one of the country's high-yield trust investment products appears set to default for the first time.
Investors in the trust, which has the unwieldy moniker "2010 China Credit / Credit Equals Gold #1 Collective Trust Product," likely won't be paid back at the end of the month after Industrial and Commercial Bank of China said it won't bail out the product it helped to market.
(Read more: Here's how bad China's bad loan problem could get)

Play Video

China's banking ticking time bomb?

CNBC's Sara Eisen reports on new concerns shadowing China's banking system.

The 3 billion yuan, or around $496 million, trust used its funds to make a loan to unlisted coal company Shanxi Zhenfu Energy Group Ltd., which has since collapsed.
While this isn't the first time a trust product has found itself with pockets to let, it could become the first to pass on the pain to investors, who widely perceive these products as having a guarantee from state-owned banks.
"They're treading a fine line," said Richard Jerram, chief economist at the Bank of Singapore.
(Read more: China's debt sentence, the biggest 'known, unknown' in 2014?)
"There's a willingness to educate investors that this is not a risk-free product. It can't be a risk-free product if it's offering premium interest rates," Jerram said. The trust offered a yield of around 10 percent a year, compared with benchmark bank rates of around 3 percent.
"It would be useful if investors sustained some of the losses," he said. But at the same time, "they don't want to frighten people away from these products entirely, or create a run, or make it impossible to sell any future products," he added.
(Read more: China's toxic debt doctors prepare for surgery)
"It's a small number in terms of value," he noted. "In terms of the message, it's a very dangerous game."
The amounts involved with this trust are relatively small. Trusts had around 10.1 trillion yuan under management at the end of the third quarter, according to the China Trustee Association
China's state auditor said in a report last month that local governments owe almost $3 trillion in outstanding debt, much of it raised via trusts. The debt pile is viewed as one of the biggest threats facing the country's economy, with concerns that much of it cannot be repaid as it was used to fund non-profitable projects. The prospect of defaults is stoking concerns over the stability of the financial system.

Play Video

Expect China bad loans to rise in 2014: Andy Xie

Andy Xie, Independent Economist, states that non-performing loans could see double-digit growth this year, with the majority originating in the trust industry.

Others also noted that the specifics of this trust's likely failure are less important than the confidence issue.
These high risk wealth-management products, or WMPs, which offer yields of more than 8 percent are only around 0.4 percent of the total number of bank WMPs issued between 2009 and 2013 and mining-related ones represent only around 1.8 percent of the total, Daiwa said in a note.
(Read more: China's bad-loan skeletons to haunt markets)
The bank also believes risks from WMPs' outstanding balances may not be as high as the amount of new issuance during 2013 would suggest, noting they generally have durations of less than six months, with the balance then rolled over.
Daiwa doesn't see the amounts involved as the true risk. "We believe a downside risk to the banking sector is whether a default in WMPs will trigger wide-spread panic among investors to withdraw their money from WMPs, thus shattering the confidence in trust and other nonbank financing channels," it said.
—By CNBC.Com

Global economy at a turning point: World Bank

Global growth is set to accelerate in 2014 as advanced economies turn a corner five years after the global financial crisis, said the World Bank.
Growth is projected to strengthen to 3.2 percent this year, 3.4 percent in 2015, and 3.6 percent in 2016 - up from 2.4 percent in 2013.
"Most of the acceleration is expected to come from high-income countries, as the drag on growth from fiscal consolidation and policy uncertainty eases and private sector recoveries gain firmer footing," the World Bank wrote in its newly-released Global Economic Prospects report on Wednesday.

Mehmet Kaman | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Stronger growth and increased demand from developed nations will be an important tailwind for developing countries and should help compensate for the impending tightening of financial conditions, the Washington-based development bank said.
(Read more: 'Dr. Doom' Roubini gets bullish on global economy)

Growth in high-income countries is forecast to quicken to 2.2 percent this year from 1.3 percent in 2013. Meanwhile, growth in developing countries is estimated to pick up modestly to 5.3 percent from 4.8 percent.
The bank says the withdrawal of quantitative easing and corresponding increase in global interest rates is expected to weigh only modestly on investment and growth in developing countries as capital costs rise and capital flows moderate in line with a global portfolio rebalancing.

Play Video

World Bank: Positive story for global economy

Andrew Burns, World Bank, provides an outlook on the global economy for 2014. Growth appears to be strengthening in both high-income and developing countries, Burns says.

"When we look at what's happened since December, markets have been broadly calm. And that gives us some confidence that we might see a much more smooth process going forward," Andrew Burns, a top forecaster at the World Bank and chief author of its Global Economic Prospects report, told CNBC Wednesday.

(Read more: After taper talk in 2013, this will dominate 2014)
However, if a tapering of the Federal Reserve's asset purchase program is met with an abrupt market adjustment, capital flows could decline sharply, placing renewed stress on vulnerable developing economies, it warned. "In a scenario where long-term interest rates rise rapidly by 100 basis points, capital inflows could decline by as much as 50 percent for several quarters," it said.
While major tail-risks have subsided, fiscal policy uncertainty in the United States, a protracted recovery in the euro zone, and possible set-backs in China's restructuring continue to pose risks to global outlook.
(Read more: Five things that could go wrong in 2014)
A successful rebalancing of the Chinese economy from investment-led to consumption-driven presents a "formidable challenge."
An involuntary and abrupt decline in investment rates could have a significant impact on growth in the world's number two economy, and knock-on effects in the region and among economies with close trading linkages including commodity producers, the World Bank said.
Nevertheless, it expects growth of 7.7 percent for the mainland economy in 2014, steady from an expected 7.7 percent last year.

—By CNBC's

SBY Said RI 50 Million Middle Class People, Population 10 Times Singapore

Jakarta President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono ( SBY ) said the number of Indonesia's middle class is equivalent to 10 times the population of Singapore , or about 50 million people in 2013.
Even rapid growth is expected to occur within the Indonesian middle class the next 10-15 years . In 2030 the estimated number of middle class Indonesia reached 120 million people .
" Last year the middle class ( the middle class ) reached 50 million people . Was 10 times the population of Singapore . By 2030 , the number of middle class be 120 million , " Yudhoyono said at the occasion of the National Entrepreneurship Movement and Young Entrepreneur award (WMM ) and Mandiri Young Technopreneur ( MYT ) in Senayan Jakarta , Wednesday ( 01/15/2014 ) .
The middle class has the character has a high purchasing power . These capabilities can be glimpsed as a huge potential market for Indonesian entrepreneurs to provide quality products and services .
" They need goods and services of better quality . Economy in Indonesia is presently developing . Nope in Java alone , " he explained .
According to Yudhoyono , the development of new entrepreneurs is growing as the middle class , so that the national economy come terkerek ride . Even the new jobs will also be open or grow .
" Now more and more are willing to venture alone . They rescuer national economy . Question then is whether the country can still developing an independent business . Answer I firmly still . Makin forward to greater opportunities , " he explained

A well-balanced slate for the Federal Reserve

Given Friday's surprising employment report, it is understandable that the other big announcement that day — the one pertaining to governors for the Federal Reserve — attracted a lot less attention. Yet the news is more consequential for the economy and markets. It is also good news.
Last Friday, President Obama announced his intention to nominate three respected and talented individuals for the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve: Jerome Powell (a renomination), Lael Brainard, and Stan Fischer.

Eric Piermont | AFP | Getty Images

The Governor of the Central Bank of Israel, Stanley Fischer to be nominated for Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve.

If approved by the Senate, they would join Janet Yellen's team at the most powerful central bank in the world. (Having been confirmed by Congress last week, Ms. Yellen will succeed Chairman Bernanke at the end of this month.)
Individually, each of the three nominees constitutes a good choice, bringing to the table a different mix of comparative advantages.Together, they form a well-balanced and strong slate at a particularly important time for Fed policy and, therefore, the economic and financial well-being of the country.
(Read more: Poll: Following the December jobs shocker, what should Yellen do?)
Mr. Powell, a lawyer by training, has already served as a Fed Governor for almost two years. He brought to the Fed valuable experience gained at the Treasury under President George W. Bush and in the private sector. He also offers continuity at a potentially fluid time for the economy and markets.
Ms. Brainard was at the Treasury more recently, having served until November of last year as Under Secretary for International Affairs. With an economics Ph.D. from Harvard and time at the Brookings Institution, she brings to the Fed strong international policy and academic expertise.

Play Video

Obama to nominate Stan Fischer for Fed vice chair

CNBC's Steve Liesman reports President Obama will nominate Stan Fischer to be Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell to continue as Fed Governor.

The most inspired choice is that of Stan Fischer, who is also being nominated for vice chair. With Ms. Yellen as chair and Mr. Fischer as vice chair, the country would have a dream team at the head of the Fed.

Mr. Fischer's admirable qualities go beyond his enormous and highly-admired talent, experience, and personal integrity (all of which I observed first hand when we worked together at the IMF back in the 1990s. As I wrote in the Financial Times in June 2011 when Mr. Fischer was a candidate for the head of the IMF, he is also world class economist who uses his brilliance to engage rather than intimidate others.
(Read more: Op-ed: Why Fed's steering of economy is 'hazardous')
We should never underestimate the importance for the country of having the best at the Fed — and especially when political polarization and Congressional dysfunction limit what the administration can implement.

These days, the Fed has little choice but to take a disproportionate leadership role in economic policy making. In doing so, it inevitably has to use experimental and untested policy measures; and does so without the luxury of being able to refer to time-tested analytical models, historical precedents and/or established playbooks.

To succeed, the Fed needs policy makers who are innovative and bold thinkers, who are anchored by a solid foundation, and who are open to new information and can internalize it quickly. They also need to be responsive and cooperative enough to evolve their policy stance as conditions warrant.

(Read more: El-Erian: Bernanke's inaugural gift to Janet Yellen)
In such a context, and given Chairman Bernanke's departure, it is highly promising and encouraging that — following Ms. Yellen's confirmation, in the nominated slate of Governors, and given existing officials at the Fed — the country would have the right mix at the right time at our central bank.

by : CNBC.COM

China's forex reserves of U.S. $ 3.82 trillion, RI If Only U.S. $ 99.4 Billion

Beijing - China's economy is increasingly powerful in the world , no wonder the amount of foreign exchange reserves continued to rise higher . China's foreign exchange reserves well above Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves .
Bank Indonesia ( BI ) release , at the end of 2013 , Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves at the end of December 2013 was U.S. $ 99.4 billion , up $ 2.4 billion compared to the end of November 2013 amounted to U.S. $ 97 billion .
This amount is far less than China's , which until the end of 2013 the amount of foreign exchange reserves reached U.S. $ 3.82 trillion . The foreign exchange reserves rose from the position of the end of September 2013 , which reached U.S. $ 3.66 trillion .
Quoted by AFP on Wednesday ( 01/15/2014 ) , rising foreign exchange reserves is due to the trade surplus reached U.S. $ 259.75 billion last year . An increase of 12.8 % compared to 2012. Bamboo Curtain country is now occupying the second position , the state with the largest economy in the world .
The Chinese government reported that economic growth in 2013 reached 7.6 % , down from 2012 which reached 7.7 % . Economic growth is the worst in 13 years .

By detik.com

Deep freeze puts $5 billion chill on economy

The record cold spell that has half the country in the deep freeze could cost the U.S. economy up to $5 billion.
That's because millions of Americans haven't been able to drive to work, fly or take a train to business meetings or vacations, go to the shopping mall or take the kids out for a movie and a meal. And they may also have to pay more just to keep warm.

Play Video

Polar vortex snarls air travel

The recent deep-freeze grounded flights and caused cancellations and delays across the country costing airlines and passengers about $1.4 billion, reports CNBC's Phil LeBeau.

The huddled masses are huddling at home until an easing of the extreme temperatures that have been colder in some parts of the country than at the South Pole.
"We think that the problem will be short-lived, but we estimate it will cost about $5 billion because of the sheer size of the population affected — about 200 million people in the eastern two-thirds of the country," said Evan Gold, senior vice president at business weather intelligence company Planalytics.

He said the cold's impact would be apparent in lost productivity, lack of consumer spending and higher heating bills. "A similar situation in 2010 lasted a week, with back-to-back storms with snow and ice. We calculated that cost $25 billion to $30 billion.
"But that one lingered. This one is just very cold, so it should be a two- or three-day event," he said.
More from NBC News:
IRS:Identity theft prosecutions doubled in 2013
Cana corporate name-change purge bad vibes?
Arctic travel conditions tie up US planes, trains
Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for IHS Global, said the cold spell would at most reduce GDP growth by 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent in the first quarter, "and it will probably all be gained back in the second quarter.

"There is no question there will be winners and losers," he said, noting companies like airlines and restaurants will be affected by customers staying at home. About 7,000 flights total were canceled Monday and Tuesday. Amtrak operated a restricted service in the Northeast.
Chris Wadaga, co-owner of Wild Blue Frozen Yogurt in Grand Haven, Mich., where it was a brisk 10 degrees Tuesday, mulled closing because the schools were shuttered.

"We decided to just open anyway and I've had maybe three customers today so far," she said. One of those was a woman who had received a Christmas gift card, so she stopped by only because she was due a free yogurt, she said.
"We're a frozen yogurt store and people don't want to go out and have frozen yogurt at this time," said Wadaga, who counted 50 customers on Monday — down from an average of 200.
Goldman Sachs analyst Kris Dawsey said the cold weather could even affect this Friday's jobs report. Construction employment, for example, is hurt by cold weather. December auto sales — which came in weaker than expected — may have been another victim of the temperature, he said.
"We expect that colder-than-normal weather during the survey period for the December payroll report probably pushed employment growth below its recent trend," he wrote, noting his preliminary forecast is for a 175,000 gain in total payrolls to be released this Friday.

It's not all a cold, dark cloud, however. Planalytics' Gold said that, as in many disasters, some businesses benefit from the situation.
"There are some winners, when people are home-bound. Online retailers, for example. There was some $30 million in gift cards sold at Christmas and, if I am stuck at home, I will go online to buy that coat or sweater. And revenue is not recorded for the store until the card is redeemed," he said.
Gold said food delivery companies and on-demand cable services for movies should flourish with a house-bound audience.
Natural gas prices in New York City rose by nearly $60 per million BTUs on Monday as the record cold snap has driven demand for the heating fuel in the northeastern U.S. to an expected 5-year high.
The spike will hit consumers with hefty bills, which likely will put a damper on their discretionary spending for the next month or so — or longer if the bitter weather returns. "There will be a negative impact on spending in February," said Gold.

But for Heli Wiener, a stay-at-home mom of three kids, aged 5, 3 and 1, in Deerfield, Ill., where it was zero degrees Tuesday, it's all about keeping the family warm and fed.

"They've had a couple of play dates, where we've bundled them head to toe just to run them across the street, but that's as far as it's gone." The children go to school and pre-school, but it's been canceled for the past two days.
"It's been stressful – they have cabin fever so I try to keep it exciting with art projects, watching TV, a lot of movie days," said Wiener. "For me, my biggest outlet is exercise so while they've been napping or temporarily busy, I will go down to the basement and run on my treadmill and that gives me a little relief."
--By NBC News

JPMorgan to pay $350 million penalty to regulator in Madoff deal: Source

JPMorgan Chase will pay a $350 million penalty to the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, according to sources, in addition to a $1.7 billion forfeiture to settle charges it failed to flag suspicious activity by convicted Ponzi schemer Bernard Madoff.

Separately, the bank also struck an accord with Irving Picard, the trustee appointed to recover lost money for Madoff's victims, for $543 million. In 2010, Picard had pursued JPMorgan in court for $6 billion, but had a difficult time trying to prove his claims before a judge.
The bank's deal with officials includes a two-year deferred prosecution agreement and settles outstanding probes by two bank regulators into failures in JPMorgan's anti-money laundering policies. The bank agreed to improve its controls.
"We recognize we could have done a better job pulling together various pieces of information and concerns about Madoff from different parts of the bank over time," JPMorgan said in a statement on Tuesday, saying it had raised concerns in the U.K. in late 2008, but not in the U.S.
(Read more: A Rogues Gallery of Financial Crime)
"We do not believe that any JPMorgan Chase employee knowingly assisted Madoff's Ponzi scheme," the bank said, adding that "Madoff's scheme was an unprecedented and widespread fraud that deceived thousands, including us, and caused many people to suffer substantial losses."
All told, Picard has collected $9.5 billion—a bit more than half of the money lost by victims of the Madoff scandal.
Bank regulators were set to appear at a 1:15 p.m. ET press conference that is being held by U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara in New York, according to an announcement Tuesday.
--By Reuters, with CNBC.com

JPMorgan to pay $350 million penalty to regulator in Madoff deal: Source

JPMorgan Chase will pay a $350 million penalty to the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, according to sources, in addition to a $1.7 billion forfeiture to settle charges it failed to flag suspicious activity by convicted Ponzi schemer Bernard Madoff.

Separately, the bank also struck an accord with Irving Picard, the trustee appointed to recover lost money for Madoff's victims, for $543 million. In 2010, Picard had pursued JPMorgan in court for $6 billion, but had a difficult time trying to prove his claims before a judge.
The bank's deal with officials includes a two-year deferred prosecution agreement and settles outstanding probes by two bank regulators into failures in JPMorgan's anti-money laundering policies. The bank agreed to improve its controls.
"We recognize we could have done a better job pulling together various pieces of information and concerns about Madoff from different parts of the bank over time," JPMorgan said in a statement on Tuesday, saying it had raised concerns in the U.K. in late 2008, but not in the U.S.
(Read more: A Rogues Gallery of Financial Crime)
"We do not believe that any JPMorgan Chase employee knowingly assisted Madoff's Ponzi scheme," the bank said, adding that "Madoff's scheme was an unprecedented and widespread fraud that deceived thousands, including us, and caused many people to suffer substantial losses."
All told, Picard has collected $9.5 billion—a bit more than half of the money lost by victims of the Madoff scandal.
Bank regulators were set to appear at a 1:15 p.m. ET press conference that is being held by U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara in New York, according to an announcement Tuesday.
--By Reuters, with CNBC.com

JPMorgan to pay $350 million penalty to regulator in Madoff deal: Source

JPMorgan Chase will pay a $350 million penalty to the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, according to sources, in addition to a $1.7 billion forfeiture to settle charges it failed to flag suspicious activity by convicted Ponzi schemer Bernard Madoff.

Separately, the bank also struck an accord with Irving Picard, the trustee appointed to recover lost money for Madoff's victims, for $543 million. In 2010, Picard had pursued JPMorgan in court for $6 billion, but had a difficult time trying to prove his claims before a judge.
The bank's deal with officials includes a two-year deferred prosecution agreement and settles outstanding probes by two bank regulators into failures in JPMorgan's anti-money laundering policies. The bank agreed to improve its controls.
"We recognize we could have done a better job pulling together various pieces of information and concerns about Madoff from different parts of the bank over time," JPMorgan said in a statement on Tuesday, saying it had raised concerns in the U.K. in late 2008, but not in the U.S.
(Read more: A Rogues Gallery of Financial Crime)
"We do not believe that any JPMorgan Chase employee knowingly assisted Madoff's Ponzi scheme," the bank said, adding that "Madoff's scheme was an unprecedented and widespread fraud that deceived thousands, including us, and caused many people to suffer substantial losses."
All told, Picard has collected $9.5 billion—a bit more than half of the money lost by victims of the Madoff scandal.
Bank regulators were set to appear at a 1:15 p.m. ET press conference that is being held by U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara in New York, according to an announcement Tuesday.
--By Reuters, with CNBC.com

Apakah China yang terbaik dari pekerjaan yang buruk?

Dengan para analis dan investor mengambil pandangan yang semakin bearish pada pasar negara berkembang , Cina mungkin menawarkan yang terbaik dari pekerjaan yang buruk , menurut Jefferies , kelompok perbankan investasi global.
" Kami mengharapkan China untuk sekali lagi mengacaukan kritikus menghasilkan outperformance relatif kuat dibandingkan pasar negara berkembang , " kata Jefferies dalam sebuah catatan . Kelompok ini menambahkan bahwa hal itu mendukung pandangan konsensus yang diharapkan ekuitas di pasar negara maju akan mengungguli pasar negara berkembang tahun ini .
( Baca lebih lanjut : Beberapa fund manager berubah positif pada pasar negara berkembang )Putar VideoMuncul pertumbuhan pasar ' mengecewakan ' : HSBCMurat Ulgen , kepala ekonom untuk Eropa Tengah dan Timur dan Sub - Sahara Afrika di HSBC , mengatakan pasar negara berkembang telah tumbuh namun pertumbuhan telah " mengecewakan " .
Jefferies telah mengambil " sederhana bearish " panggilan pada China , tetapi mengharapkan peningkatan perdagangan global , tekanan inflasi yang terjaga dan reformasi finansial yang sedang berlangsung akan memastikan pasar ekuitas daratan keluar ke depan dari rekan-rekan emerging market .
" Ekspektasi pengetatan kebijakan moneter AS , dolar AS menguat dan penurunan harga batubara umumnya menjadi positif untuk pasar saham China , " katanya .
( Baca selengkapnya : Bursa saham China mungkin murah , tapi mereka bisa mendapatkan lebih murah )
Jefferies mengharapkan dolar AS akan menguat karena pasar mulai mengharapkan kenaikan suku bunga pada tahun 2015 . Hal ini , pada gilirannya , akan melemahkan nilai tukar Asia bahkan sebagai mata uang China cenderung menguat.
Harapan dari pengetatan moneter di AS telah menekan pasar negara berkembang selama tahun lalu . Dari bulan Mei sampai September, ekspektasi bahwa Federal Reserve akan mulai meruncing pembelian aset memacu penurunan tajam di pasar Asia . Pasar China secara umum terisolasi karena mata uangnya tidak mengambang bebas .
Tapi Jefferies mencatat bahwa perekonomian China masih menghadapi headwinds . " Banyak reformasi bahwa China harus melakukan yang ideologis dan karena itu mungkin memakan waktu lebih lama untuk menghasilkan perbaikan ekonomi yang mendasari untuk standar hidup dan pendapatan , " katanya .Putar VideoMacquarie : Banyak peluang China pada tahun 2014Sam Le Cornu , Senior Portfolio Manager , Asia Equities Tercatat di Macquarie menjelaskan mengapa dia bullish di pasar Cina.
Yang pasti , tidak semua orang suam-suam kuku di China .
Deutsche Bank memperkirakan saham China rally 20 persen pada tahun 2014 .
" Prospek pasar kami didasarkan pada harapan kami dari pertumbuhan pendapatan yang lebih kuat dari perkiraan serta indeks rating kembali pada pemulihan pertumbuhan siklus dan dampak positif dari reformasi , " kata Deutsche Bank dalam sebuah catatan . " Kami percaya bahwa reformasi kemungkinan akan meningkatkan konsensus pasar pada potensi pertumbuhan China dan membantu mengurangi kekhawatiran tentang risiko makro dan ( EPS ) volatilitas laba - per - saham. "
( Baca lebih lanjut : kerangka buruk - pinjaman China menghantui pasar )
Ini mencatat perdagangan indeks MSCI China hanya 9,1 kali perkiraan konsensus pendapatan untuk 2014. " Ini berarti bahwa pasar mengharapkan beberapa perlambatan signifikan dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pertumbuhan EPS pada tahun 2014 , yang kita anggap tidak mungkin , " katanya , mencatat mereka mengharapkan pertumbuhan ekonomi untuk mempercepat menjadi 8,6 persen pada tahun 2014 dan EPS meningkat sebesar 13 persen .

By CNBC

China’s Credit Hole Seen Limiting 2014 Growth Prospects

China’s new credit probably fell by a record in the second half amid a crackdown on speculative lending, limiting prospects for economic expansion this year as policy makers focus on controlling financial risks.
The broadest measure, aggregate financing, was 7.1 trillion yuan ($1.2 trillion) based on published figures plus economists’ median estimate for December data due in coming days. That would be about 931 billion yuan less than in July-to-December 2012, the largest drop in figures going back to 2002.
China’s leaders are set to be tested in their willingness to sacrifice economic growth to tame a record debt buildup that’s evoked comparisons to Japan before its lost decade. Money-market cash crunches in June and December highlighted President Xi Jinping’s efforts to rein in borrowing after a $1.7 trillion first-half increase in aggregate financing.
“Their focus is more about containing debt growth,” said Yao Wei, China economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. “Sometime over the course of 2014 they will realize the slowdown, the deceleration, is worse than expected and they will loosen their stance a little bit.”
China’s economy probably grew 7.6 percent in 2013, the State Council said last month. That would tie 1999’s pace as the lowest since 1990 and be just above the 7.5 percent growth goal for the year. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News last month see a 7.4 percent expansion in 2014.
“For the sake of long-term sustainability, China should endure further growth deceleration than we are seeing now,” Yao said.

Credit Estimates

Estimates for December’s aggregate financing from 13 economists range from 1.04 trillion yuan to 1.5 trillion yuan, with a median of 1.15 trillion yuan, and compare with 1.63 trillion yuan a year earlier.
China’s cabinet, led by Premier Li Keqiang, has imposed new controls on the multi-trillion-dollar shadow-banking industry with an order that targets off-the-books loans and shores up enforcement of current rules, three people familiar with the matter said this week. Last week, the National Audit Office reported that local-government debt including contingent liabilities swelled to a record 17.9 trillion yuan as of June.
Shadow financing poses risks both to the system as a whole and to individual lenders and borrowers. In the city of Tangshan in northern Hebei province last week, Zhao Ge said he’s concerned he may lose part of the 1 million yuan he loaned to a steel plant has been idle for more than a year. The government dismantled its furnace in a capacity-reduction campaign in late November.

Principal Risk

“When I loaned the plant money, I didn’t think too much about the risks -- I thought about the 2 percent monthly interest,” said Zhao, who gave his age as “almost 50.” “So far about a third of my principal has been paid back, but the remaining two-thirds is in danger.
The People’s Bank of China may report that new local-currency loans were 575 billion yuan in December, based on analysts’ median estimate, up from 454 billion yuan a year earlier.
The broader decline in second-half new credit was the result of having fewer projects to support, said Jimmy Zhu, an economist at FXPrimus Ltd. in Singapore. ‘‘In August and September of 2012, there was nearly a hard landing,” Zhu said. The policies to aid the economy in the second half of 2013 weren’t as significant, he said.
System-wide credit growth, as measured by the outstanding level of aggregate financing, may slow to 16.5 percent at the end of 2014 from 18.8 percent in 2013, Bank of America Corp. said in a Jan. 6 report.

Default Chances

“Though we don’t expect a nationwide debt and banking crisis, we believe the chance of some bond and trust loan defaults will rise significantly in 2014,” economists led by Lu Ting in Hong Kong wrote. “The government may also need some defaults to develop a more disciplined financial market.”
Record debt threatens to trigger a financial crisis in China, as liabilities at non-financial companies may rise to more than 150 percent of gross domestic product in 2014, according to Haitong Securities Co.
China will probably see a relatively lengthy cash squeeze in 2014, on local governments’ needs and increasing demand for housing credit, Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the government’s Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote in an article published in yesterday’s Securities Daily.
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Xiaoqing Pi in Beijing at xpi1@bloomberg.net; Scott Lanman in Beijing at slanman@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net

US still faces 'too big to fail’: Fed's Gary Stern

The United States and global markets alike are still plagued by the threat of financial institutions that are "too big to fail," Gary Stern, former president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, told CNBC on Monday.
"We still have a 'too big to fail' problem," he said, referring to the theory that some financial institutions are so large that their collapse could send shock waves through the economy.

But Stern told "Closing Bell" that some of the steps taken by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Federal Reserve have resulted in progress. For example, he said, the implementation of the so-called living will, or recovery and resolution plan, is a move toward increased transparency.

(Read more: Bank crackdown actually ups risk: Bove)
"I think if that is done well ... if the regulators insist that it be done well and they get bank board of directors involved, we can rein in—not eliminate—but rein in too big to fail, diminish the scale of the problem, reduce the probability of severe financial crises," Stern said.

Economist Simon Johnson, speaking at the American Economic Association's annual meeting in Philadelphia this weekend, countered that the living will does not provide enough transparency, for instance, about which pension funds or global money market funds are exposed to a troubled bank.
Stern agreed with that assertion but said it's a good start.

"We've got to pay attention to who the counterparties are, who has the exposure, which markets do these institutions rely on for funding and so forth," he said. "Those are issues that require a fair amount of resources to really get your arms around. But it's not impossible, and I think good process is being made."

—By CNBC's Drew Sandholm

Oil prices could 'crater' in 2014, Bremmer says: But 'dream' scenario could become a nightmare

It what sounds like a dream scenario for U.S. consumers, Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, says oil prices could "crater" in 2014 and OPEC could "fall apart."

But a serious decline in energy prices could lead to a nightmare for U.S. policymakers as "expanding unrest" in the Middle East is one of Bremmer's 'top risks' of 2014.

First, the good news: If a comprehensive deal over Iran's nuclear program is reached -- and Bremmer sees a-better-than 50% chance it will -- "then oil prices are cratering through $80" (the presumptive floor currently set by the Saudis), he says. "OPEC falls apart in that environment."

Again, this sounds like great news for American businesses and consumers, as well as emerging marketeconomies. 

Related: “A Real American Story”: Why the Fracking Revolution Happened Here

But despite increased domestic production America is not "energy independent" -- nor likely to get there anytime soon. The U.S. cannot ignore developments in the Middle East, even if we want to. And that's the bad news.

"The Middle East as a whole becomes more fragmented [and] more violent" if the scenario described above comes to pass, Bremmer predicts. The region "becomes less of an investment destination and starts to affect even those countries we thought of as relatively stable, like Saudi Arabia."

A 'more fragmented, more violent' Middle East is not a future forecast but current reality based on recent developments, including the expansion of Syria's civil war into neighboring Lebanon and the resurgence of anti-U.S. forces in Iraq's Anbar province.

Related: Decline of U.S. foreign policy biggest risk of 2014, not economics: Ian Bremmer

"If current trends of regime reconsolidation in Syria continue, which looks increasingly likely, the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), Al Qaeda’s fast-growing franchise operating in Syria and neighboring countries, will shift its resources this spring toward weakening the Shia-dominated government in Baghdad," Bremmer writes. "ISIS will reinforce the myriad local Sunni groups marginalized by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki’s authoritarian policies, who are more willing to join forces and take up arms against the central government in Baghdad."

The situation in Iraq is so dire, in fact, that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry felt compelled to affirm U.S. support for Baghdad on Monday -- with a major caveat.

"We’re going to help them in their fight,” Kerry said. But “we are not, obviously, contemplating returning. We are not contemplating putting boots on the ground."

Advances by ISIS are effectively reversing the gains made during the U.S. "surge" in 2007. "It's not 'Mission Accomplished'," Bremmer quips, suggesting the overall trend of increased Middle East violence and fragmentation "creates more risk of terrorism."

For the time being, Bremmer sees this terrorism as more of a local, regional story with the greatest pressure on Middle East "petrostates" and their patrons in Egypt and Tunisia, as well as on energy producers like Venezuela, Nigeria and Russia.  

It's "not clear how it's bad for the average American," he says.

But recent history paints a frightening picture of what happens when radical Islamists have opportunities to recruit and plot terrorist acts. For America to ignore these developments or disengage from the region would truly represent the failure of foreign policy Bremmer cited in part one of this interview.

by : Yahoo Finance

In the world's most populous nation, the business of burying the dead is booming.

In the world's most populous nation, the business of burying the dead is booming.

China's aging population and elaborate burial rituals are fueling rapid growth in demand for death care services.

The country of 1.4 billion people has the most deaths in the world each year: 9.7 million in 2012. That figure is expected to hit 10.4 million by 2017.
Providing services from burial plot landscaping to funeral catering is a lucrative business. The industry was worth 93.5 billion yuan ($15.4 billion) last year, and is forecast to rise 10% annually for the next five years, according to Euromonitor.
Investors have already spotted the potential. Shares in Shanghai-based Fu Shou Yuan, China's largest death care provider, soared by as much as 66% when they began trading in Hong Kong late December.
Related story: The high cost of saying goodbye
The Chinese take the dead and dying very seriously -- improper rites are thought to bring bad luck to the living. Their customs are elaborate, and traditional beliefs dictate how everything should be done, from tomb location and body handling to the funeral procession.
Ceremonies, which can last for days, include burning offerings to ensure loved ones are comfortable in the afterlife. Sticks of incense, food and drink, fake money, iPads, Chanel handbags and even mansions go up in smoke.
And in a culture where social dignity is strongly valued, nobody wants to be perceived as cutting corners when paying their respects. In fact, some families even hire people to express grief around-the-clock -- the louder and longer the cries, the stronger the demonstration of filial piety.
Demand for burial plots is overwhelming some of China's cities. Cemetery prices per square meter can exceed the cost of premium apartments, according to Euromonitor. Tombs in Beijing can easily cost 75,000 yuan, or $12,000 -- three times the price per meter for housing in China's capital city.
In Hong Kong, it's hard enough to find space for cremated ashes, let alone a permanent burial plot, forcing residents to opt for temporary rentals where remains are exhumed after six years. Even then, there's a waiting list.
Related story: Europe's golden visas lure rich Chinese
So while the prospects for funeral directors look good, government curbs may take the edge off the industry's profits.
As part of a major crackdown on corruption, the Chinese government told officials in recent weeks to avoid lavishly spending on the deceased.
Beijing said government officials should instead set an example with "simple and civilized funerals," according to state media, rather than use them "to show off wealth and connections."
Under pressure over hazardous smog, the government is also pushing for more eco-friendly burials, requiring crematoriums to upgrade incinerators to control smoke pollution.

Daily Technical Analysis - Pre EU Open - 3rd January 2014

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Pre European Open, Daily Technical Analysis Friday, January 03, 2014

EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD Gold Crude Oil

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

EUR/USD intraday: the downside prevails. Prev Next Pivot: 1.371 Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 1.371 with targets @ 1.362 & 1.36 in extension. Alternative scenario: Above 1.371 look for further upside with 1.374 & 1.377 as targets. Comment: the pair stands below its resistance and remains under pressure. GBP/USD intraday: under pressure. Prev Next Pivot: 1.6495 Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 1.6495 with targets @ 1.64 & 1.6365 in extension. Alternative scenario: Above 1.6495 look for further upside with 1.655 & 1.6605 as targets. Comment: the pair remains under pressure as the RSI is badly directed. USD/JPY intraday: the downside prevails. Prev Next Pivot: 104.5 Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 104.5 with targets @ 104 & 103.8 in extension. Alternative scenario: Above 104.5 look for further upside with 104.85 & 105.15 as targets. Comment: the pair remains under pressure as the RSI is badly directed. AUD/USD intraday: bounce. Prev Next Pivot: 0.888 Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 0.888 with targets @ 0.9 & 0.904 in extension. Alternative scenario: Below 0.888 look for further downside with 0.883 & 0.878 as targets. Comment: the pair has broken above its resistance and remains on the upside. Gold spot intraday: the bias remains bullish. Prev Next Pivot: 1213.00 Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 1213 with 1238 & 1244 as next targets. Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 1213 will open the way to 1204 & 1194. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish. Crude Oil (Feb 14) intraday: rebound. Prev Top Pivot: 94.50 Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 94.5 with targets @ 96.5 & 97.45. Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 94.5 will call for a slide towards 93 & 92.1. Comment: the RSI is posting a bullish divergence (not confirmed yet). Disclaimer Copyright The information contained herein is produced by ‘TRADING Central’ and not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial product. Any opinion offered in this material reflects the opinion of ‘TRADING Central’ and this is subject to change without notice. ‘TRADING Central’ is an investment research provider (http://www.tradingcentral.com/start.asp?p=quisommesnous).

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