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Kamis, 29 Januari 2009
Cadangan Minyak Bumi di Indonesia Menipis
Untk mengatasi hal itu, masyarakat Indonesia alangkah baiknya mulai berhemat dan mengurangi ketergantungan pada penggunaan minyak bumi.
Setiap tahunnya, penggunaan minyak di Indonesia semakin meningkat sebanyak 6 persen. Jika tidak bisa direm, maka minyak bumi Indonesia akan terkikis.
"Minyak bumi kita semakin menipis. Kalau sumber daya seperti gas masih banyak tersisa," kata Staf Ahli BP Migas Trijana Kartoadmojo kepada wartawan di sela-sela sosialisasi Kegiatan Hulu Migas di Hotel Singgasana Jalan Gunungsari, Surabaya, Kamis (29/1/2009).
Kondisi ini menurut Trijana Kartoadmojo yang juga pengajar di Universitas Trisakti Jakarta sangat mengkhawatirkan. Untuk itu sudah saatnya masyarakat Indonesia mengganti penggunaan minyak ke fosil ataupun gas. Karena kandungan gas sebanyak 165 MBTU (Million British Thermal Unit), atau tersedia untuk lebih 50 tahun ke depan.
"Harus berhemat dengan menggunakan tenaga yang lebih murah. Perusahaan listrik berganti menggunakan gas atau juga batu bara itu jauh lebih baik lagi," tuturnya.
Trijana menambahkan, ke depan Indonesia harus menggunakan geothermal atau panas bumi sebagai sumber energi. Ada 52 titik geothernal seperti di kawasan Dieng dan Kamojang. Untuk investasi menurutnya mahal, tapi tidak pernah akan habis.
"Geothermal itu harus dipakai. Sayang kalau tidak digunakan," ungkapnya.(bdh/bdh)
Kamis, 22 Januari 2009
Korea's Economy Shrinks 5.6%, Biggest in 11 Years
South Korea's economy shrank a seasonally adjusted 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, far more than expected and the biggest fall in nearly 11 years, the central bank said on Thursday.
The quarterly decline was the sharpest since a 7.8 percent contraction in the first quarter of 1998, when the nation was hit by the Asian financial crisis, reflecting the local impact of a deepening global recession.
A Reuters poll of 12 economists had forecast gross domestic would contract 2.7 percent during the October-December period from the previous quarter.
The fall compared with a 0.5 percent rise in the third quarter and 0.8 percent growth in the second quarter.
From a year earlier, Asia's fourth-largest economy shrank 3.4 percent, more than the 0.7 percent slump forecast in the poll.
That compared with a 3.8 percent annual rise in the previous quarter and 4.8 percent expansion in the second quarter.
For the full year of 2008, the economy grew 2.5 percent, compared with the central bank's projection in December of 3.7 percent.
Reuters poll showed annual growth is expected to slide rapidly to 1.2 percent this year, which would be the worst annual performance since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.
Korea's Economy Shrinks 5.6%, Biggest in 11 Years
South Korea's economy shrank a seasonally adjusted 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, far more than expected and the biggest fall in nearly 11 years, the central bank said on Thursday.
The quarterly decline was the sharpest since a 7.8 percent contraction in the first quarter of 1998, when the nation was hit by the Asian financial crisis, reflecting the local impact of a deepening global recession.
A Reuters poll of 12 economists had forecast gross domestic would contract 2.7 percent during the October-December period from the previous quarter.
The fall compared with a 0.5 percent rise in the third quarter and 0.8 percent growth in the second quarter.
From a year earlier, Asia's fourth-largest economy shrank 3.4 percent, more than the 0.7 percent slump forecast in the poll.
That compared with a 3.8 percent annual rise in the previous quarter and 4.8 percent expansion in the second quarter.
For the full year of 2008, the economy grew 2.5 percent, compared with the central bank's projection in December of 3.7 percent.
Reuters poll showed annual growth is expected to slide rapidly to 1.2 percent this year, which would be the worst annual performance since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.
Record Japan Export Plunge Adds to Recession Gloom
Japanese exports plunged a record 35 percent in December from a year earlier and business sentiment hit a new low, highlighting the severity of the global financial crisis and reinforcing expectations that Japan faces a long and deep recession.
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Katsumi Kasahara / AP |
As gloom over the outlook persists, the Bank of Japan is expected to emerge from a two-day policy meeting on Thursday with more details of how it will seek to unglue financial markets through buying commercial paper and maybe even other corporate debt, as companies struggle to raise cash.
"With growth in Asia and other emerging economies slowing, there is nothing to support Japanese exports. We'll likely see external demand push down October-December GDP growth quite a bit," said Yoshiki Shinke, senior economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. "The yen's sharp rise is also very damaging and will delay a recovery in Japan's economy."
Rising risk aversion in the face of renewed jitters over the U.S. and European banking sector woes pushed the yen [JPY-TN 88.99 -0.47 (-0.53%)
] to a 13-year high against the dollar near 87 yen on Wednesday, before regaining some ground.
Boding ill for the economy, Japanese manufacturers' business mood hit a new record low and service sector sentiment worsened to a level not seen in seven years, the Reuters Tankan showed.
To deal with the downturn, many companies are cutting jobs, raising more concerns over domestic consumption.
Sales Slide to Asia, U.S.
The slide in exports has left Japan with a trade deficit for three months in a row, despite recent falls in oil and other commodity prices.
The record 35.0 fall in exports from a year earlier was bigger than an already gloomy median forecast from economists for a 30.1 percent fall.
Shipments to recession-hit United States plunged 36.9 percent on sharp declines in automobile shipments, marking the 16th straight month of decreases.
Exports to Asia tumbled 36.4 percent with those to China down 35.5 percent, as the trade within East Asia collapsed in the wake of the plunge in the global demand for cars and electronics.
Plummeting exports has prompted leading Japanese manufacturers, particularly car makers such as Toyota Motors [TM 67.52 1.64 (+2.49%)
], to slash production at an unprecedented pace.
The trade data showed imports tumbled 21.5 percent, also more than a 16.5 percent fall economists had forecast, a sign domestic demand may be weakening.
Gummed Up Markets
Worries over the deepening recession and ongoing problems in global financial markets in the past several months have made it more difficult for companies to raise funds.
Though the strain has shown some sign of easing, worries persist about renewed market tensions ahead of the March end of the fiscal year, when fund demand tends to rise as many companies close their books in Japan.
The BOJ last month cut interest rates to 0.10 percent from 0.30 percent as the global downturn sent exports and industrial production into cliff-diving.
At its policy meeting ending on Thursday, the central bank is expected to follow up on the pledge it made last month that it will buy commercial paper outright to help companies' financing.
Also likely to be debated is whether the BOJ should buy not just short-term corporate debt such as commercial paper but longer-term corporate debt such as bonds, although many analysts do not expect the central bank to buy corporate bonds at this stage.
China's Economy Slows Sharply as Crisis Bites
China's economic growth slumped to 6.8 percent last quarter, dragging down the pace of expansion for all of 2008 to a seven-year low of 9.0 percent as the full force of the global financial crisis struck home.
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Fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth, measured from a year earlier, dropped from the 9.0 percent clip of the July-September quarter and undershot market expectations of a 7.0 percent reading.
The slowdown snapped a five-year streak of double-digit growth that has turned China into the third-largest economy in the world after the United States and Japan.
"The international financial crisis is deepening and spreading with continuing negative impacts on the domestic economy," the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement on Thursday accompanying the release of the figures.
Many economists believe the economy will expand by no more than 5-6 percent this year, which would be the weakest performance since 1990.
Others expect the government to hit its target of 8 percent growth as a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package and much easier monetary policy kick in.
The figures were consistent with recent data showing falling power consumption and back-to-back declines in both exports and imports as the bottom fell out of the world economy.
An estimated 10 million migrant workers have already lost their jobs in export industries battered by a collapse in demand in the United States and Europe and the evaporation of trade finance as hard-hit global banks cut off credit lines.
Beijing has made no secret of its concern that rising unemployment poses a threat to social stability and the legitimacy of the ruling Communist Party and has vowed to do whatever it takes to crank up growth and jobs.
The statistics office stressed the need to promote steady and rapid economic growth in order to maintain a "harmonious and stable social climate".
Sony Warns of $2.9 Billion Loss, Steps Up Restructuring
Sony warned it would post a record $2.9 billion annual operating loss due to sliding demand and a stronger yen, and unveiled fresh restructuring steps to revive its ailing electronics operations.
The operating loss will be Sony's first in 14 years, underscoring deepening troubles for a company that has fallen behind Apple's [AAPL 82.83 4.63 (+5.92%)
] iPod in portable music,Nintendo in videogames, and is losing money on flat TVs.
"Sony needs further restructuring, not just cost-cutting but a revamping of its business operations," said Naoki Fujiwara, a fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management.
Sony [SNE 22.58 1.05 (+4.88%)
] said it now expects an operating loss of 260 billion yen ($2.9 billion) for the year to March, down from an earlier projection for a 200 billion yen profit and far worse than earlier media estimates of a loss of 100 billion yen.
The maker of Bravia LCD TVs and PlayStation game consoles said it would respond by accelerating restructuring, more than doubling a cost-cutting target for the year to March 2010 to 250 billion yen.
Sony said it would end TV production and design operations at one plant in Japan and consolidate those operations into another factory in the country.
It plans to cut headcount by 30 percent in operations related to TV design worldwide.
Other measures include consolidation of resources for batteries and small and mid-size liquid crystal display (LCD) panels, and pay cuts for directors and managers.
It expects restructuring charges to total 170 billion yen through the year to March 2010.
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Sony 46" BRAVIA® XBR® series LCD Flat Panel HDTV |
Last month Sony outlined a restructuring plan that included curbing investment, closing five to six plants and cutting a total of 16,000 regular and contract jobs globally to save 100 billion yen a year in costs.
But Sony's management, led by Chief Executive Howard Stringer, faced criticism from analysts and investors who said more drastic measures were needed to streamline a sprawling empire that includes semiconductors, movies and insurance.
"Sony has to consider ways to lower fixed costs not only for its TV business but for the whole company. It will have to start cutting development costs in addition to production costs," said Nomura Securities senior analyst Eiichi Katayama.
Sony attributed 340 billion yen of the 460 billion yen swing in its operating forecast to its core electronics division, as the slowing global economy depresses demand for its digital cameras, video recorders and flat TVs.
But it has also been hurt by the slide in the Japanese stock market, which sliced into the value of securities held by its financial unit.
Slower sales in its game and movie divisions have also hit its results.
Illustrating the problems Sony faces, Japanese exports plunged 35 percent in December from a year earlier, with electronics sales to China and other parts of Asia among the worst affected as Western orders to Asian assembly plants dry up.
More From CNBC
Jakarta - Memilih perusahaan sekuritas atau perusahaan perantara perdagangan efek alias broker bukan perkara mudah. Apalagi, belakangan ini muncul ket
"Sebetulnya investor maupun calon investor tidak perlu takut. Kasus 2-3 broker jangan digeneralisir bahwa semua broker berpotensi bermasalah," ujar Direktur Perdagagan Fix Income dan Derivatif, Keanggotaan dan Partisipan Bursa Efek Indonesia, Guntur Pasaribu saat dihubungi detikFinance, Selasa (20/1/2009).
Menurut Guntur, masalah beberapa broker tersebut saat ini sedang ditangani intensif oleh BEI maupun Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal & Lembaga Keuangan (Bapepam-LK). BEI bersama Bapepam sedang berupaya mengentaskan masalah ini secepatnya.
"Jadi investor tidak perlu khawatir. Industri ini masih bagus kok. Hanya 2-3 broker saja yang bermasalah. Sisanya yang 100 lebih itu masih bagus kok," ujar Guntur.
Namun bagi investor maupun calon investor yang masih ragu, Guntur memberikan beberapa tips-tips dalam memilih broker untuk berinvestasi di pasar modal.
"Hal yang perlu diperhatikan dalam memilih broker terutama adalah struktur permodalan broker tersebut. Kedua, manajemen broker. Ketiga, divisi-divisi yang ada di broker tersebut seperti riset dan sebagainya. Terakhir, nilai MKBD broker juga bisa dijadikan acuan memilih broker," papar Guntur.
Kendati demikian, Guntur mengembalikan pada masing-masing investor untuk memilih broker sesuai keinginannya. "Tips-tips tadi bisa digunakan untuk memilih broker. Tapi tentunya, pilihan tetap di tangan investor untuk memilih broker mana yang nyaman bagi mereka," ujar Guntur.
Pengamat pasar modal Dandossi Matram ketika dihubungi detikFinance juga mengungkapkan hal senada dengan Guntur. Dandossi dengan tegas mengatakan bahwa kasus beberapa broker jangan dijadikan acuan untuk menilai broker secara keseluruhan.
"Jangan digeneralisir dong. Broker-broker lainnya masih bagus kok," ujar Dandossi.
Senada dengan Guntur, Dandossi juga menekankan, bahwa struktur permodalan broker
merupakan faktor yag paling harus diperhatikan dalam memiih broker. Kendati tidak secara tersurat, Dandossi mengatakan bahwa di tengah kondisi pasar modal dan krisis keuangan global seperti ini, broker-broker pelat merah boleh dikatakan termasuk dalam kategori broker yang aman secara permodalan.
"Saat ini, mungkin broker-broker pelat merah bisa dikatakan termasuk yang paling aman untuk investasi, karena permodalan mereka kuat karena didukung pemerintah," ujarnya.
Jika mengacu pada nilai MKBD, maka urut-urutannya adalah PT Bahana Securities Rp 387,248 miliar, PT Mandiri Sekuritas Rp 106,439 miliar, PT Danareksa Sekuritas Rp 70,681 miliar dan PT BNI Securities Rp 34,332 miliar.
Tiga perusahaan yang disebut pertama di atas juga menduduki peringkat 5 besar sebagai penjamin emisi obligasi di tahun 2008. Mandiri Sekuritas menduduki peringkat teratas dengan nilai emisi sebesar Rp 7,133 triliun, dilanjutkan oleh Danareksa Sekuritas dengan nilai emisi Rp 1,792 triliun.
PT Indo Premier Securities menduduki peringkat ketiga dengan nilai emisi Rp 1,217 triliun, kemudian dilanjutkan PT CIMB-GK Securities Indonesia dengan nilai emisi Rp 1,050 triliun. Sementara Bahana menduduki peringkat kelima dengan nilai emisi Rp 892 miliar.
Rabu, 21 Januari 2009
Sweden's Ericsson posts 31 percent drop in 4th quarter profit, to slash 5,000 jobs
Sweden's Ericsson posts 31 percent drop in 4th quarter profit, to slash 5,000 jobs
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Net profit in the quarter fell to 3.9 billion kronor ($465 million) from 5.6 billion a year earlier.
Ericsson said the results included about 3 billion kronor in restructuring charges and "a dramatic drop" in the contribution from its handset unit, Sony Ericsson. The joint venture with Japan's Sony last week said it had swung to a fourth-quarter loss of euro187 million ($243 million).
Sales received a boost from a weaker krona, rising 23 percent to 67 billion kronor, from 54.5 billion kronor a year earlier. SEB Enskilda analyst Mats Nystrom said the strong sales were the biggest surprise in what he called a "really good quarter" for Ericsson.
The world's leading maker of mobile broadband infrastructure said it released the fourth-quarter report a week ahead of schedule because it exceeded market expectations.
Chief Executive Carl-Henric Svanberg said the economic recession spreading around the world had not yet hit the network industry. Telecom operators, who build their networks with equipment from Ericsson and its competitors, still have healthy finances, he said.
"It remains, however, difficult to more precisely predict to what extent consumer telecom spending will be affected and how operators will act," Svanberg added. "To date, our infrastructure business is hardly impacted at all, but it would be unreasonable to think that this would be the case also throughout 2009."
Nortel Networks Corp., once one of Ericsson's biggest competitors, last week filed for bankruptcy protection in Canada and the U.S., becoming the first major technology company to take that step in the economic downturn.
Ericsson said it needs to widen its savings program to stay competitive. That would mean cutting 5,000 jobs, or more than 6 percent of its 79,000-strong work force, Ericsson said.
The Stockholm-based company said it expected restructuring charges of 6 billion-7 billion kronor, yielding annual savings of around 10 billion kronor by the second half of the year.
In a webcast news conference with analysts and journalists, Svanberg said "we're doing this of course because of the uncertainty in the market."
Ericsson said full-year profits fell 48 percent to 11.3 billion kronor in 2008, from 21.8 billion kronor in the previous year. Sales grew 11 percent to 209 billion kronor.
Where the $825 billion will -- and won't -- show up in your life.
Where the $825 billion will -- and won't -- show up in your life.
With our first glimpse into how the government wants to use $825 billion to juice the economy, it's clear that some of the money will quickly and directly affect most Americans lives, while other spending is intended to produce either longer-term, less tangible benefits or is targeted at narrow segments of the population -- like the unemployed.
Although the sum is huge, the money isn't intended to turn the economy around, but to keep it from falling even further into decay.
Detractors say spending on stimulus will do little more than drive the country deeper into debt. Many Republicans are arguing for a plan heavier on tax cuts and lighter on government spending.
But supporters -- including most Democrats and the president -- say it would ultimately cost the U.S. more -- in the form of lost jobs, economic output, and lost tax revenues - to drag our feet. They want the plan enacted quickly.
Here's how some of the billions in the House stimulus bill could change your life.
This is not a complete list of the spending, and the numbers are approximate and will likely change before any bill is enacted.
Your Paycheck
What You'll See:
$145 billion in tax cuts for working individuals.
The tax cut would be $500 per person ($1,000 for a couple) and would phase out for people making over $75,000 a year ($150,000 for couples). You can get the money either by claiming it on your tax return, or through a reduction in the taxes that are taken out of your weekly paycheck.
This is the largest single measure in a tax package that includes additional cuts for businesses large and small, as well as expanded credits for low income individuals.
For the Unemployed:
$43 billion for increased unemployment benefits.
$39 billion for expanded healthcare benefits for the unemployed.
$20 billion to increase food stamp benefits.
Education
What You'll See:
$41 billion for school improvements, including better buildings, computer upgrades and teacher training.
$15 billion to increase the maximum Pell grant by $500 in 2009-10; plus, increases to the annual unsubsidized Stafford Loan limits.
$14 billion in tax credits of up to $2,500 a year for college students with an annual income below $80,000.
$6 billion for college building improvements.
Behind the Scenes:
$79 billion to help states offset education costs. While people won't see this directly, it will likely mean that services won't have to be cut or taxes won't have to be raised.
Health Care
What You'll See:
$4 billion for more preventative care programs.
$1.5 billion for improvements at community health centers.
Behind the Scenes:
$20 billion to computerize health care records. This is intended primarily for doctors, although there's some debate as to whether patients will have access to this database as well. Ultimately, it's supposed to make the healthcare system more efficient and cheaper for everyone.
$87 billion for states to help pay Medicaid costs. Again, while not directly visible to most people, state taxes would likely rise, or services cut, absent this measure.
Housing
What You'll See:
$6 billion to weatherize moderate income homes, making them more energy efficient.
$4 billion for homeowners to take up to 30% of the cost of conservation measures as a tax credit, up to $1,500 per person.
$300 million for consumers to replace old appliances.
$500 million to help rural families secure mortgages.
For Those Living in Public Housing:
$16 billion in energy retrofits and improvements.
Transportation
What You'll See:
$30 billion for highway and bridge construction projects.
$10 billion for mass transit, including new lines, buses, trains and stations.
$3 billion to expand congested airports.
$1.15 billion for better land and sea ports.
$4 billion for more police officers and equipment - best watch the speeding!
$500 million for better airport screening detectors.
Other Infrastructure Improvements
What You'll See:
$31 billion to modernize public buildings, making them more energy efficient.
$3.1 billion for improvements on public lands, including new roads, trails and facilities at national parks.
$6 billion for broadband Internet access in rural areas.
$400 million for flood control efforts, which include buying and preserving open land around the country.
$6 billion for communities to replace aging sewer lines.
$4.2 billion for towns to purchase and rehabilitate foreclosed, vacant homes.
$32 billion for a "smart" utility grid and renewable energy production, although in the long run this could change the way you use appliances at home and clean the air.
$10 billion for science research facilities.
Wall Street points toward higher opening
AP
Wall Street points toward higher opening
Wednesday January 21, 7:14 am ET
By Stephen Bernard, AP Business Writer
IBM also said its fourth-quarter profit jumped 12 percent, easily topping analysts' estimates.
Swedish wireless equipment maker LM Ericsson also reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter profit, although earnings fell. It shares were trading higher in trading in Stockholm Wednesday.
Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 91, or 1.15 percent, to 8,036. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures gained 9, or 1.12 percent, to 815, while Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 7.25, or 0.63 percent, to 1,154.75.
The Dow tumbled 332.13, or 4 percent, to 7949.09 on Tuesday. It was the first time the Dow closed below 8,000 since November.
Markets were battered Tuesday by fresh concerns about the global banking sector, and financial stocks led the selling.
The Royal Bank of Scotland said its 2008 loss might top $41 billion, which spurred the British government to announce a fresh banking bailout. In the U.S., State Street Corp. -- seen as one of the safer financial firms during the current turmoil because it is a custodial bank -- lost more than half its value after reporting plunging profit and a bleak outlook for 2009.
Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp., which both last week reported multibillion dollar fourth-quarter losses, each plunged by more than 20 percent.
Later Wednesday, investors will also get a reading on the beleaguered housing market. The National Association of Home Builders is scheduled to report its January housing index at 1 p.m. EST.
Oil prices rose 34 cents to $41.18 a barrel in premarket trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Bond prices fell. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 2.43 percent from 2.37 percent late Tuesday. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, rose to 0.12 percent from 0.10 percent late Tuesday.
The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices rose.
Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 2 percent. In afternoon trading, Britain's FTSE 100 declined 1.1 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 0.6 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 1.4 percent.
New York Stock Exchange: http://www.nyse.com
Nasdaq Stock Market: http://www.nasdaq.com
Market watch 1
IHSG
HEADLINE NEWS
Inggris perketat pengawasan bank
Dana talangan diprediksi naik US$147 miliar
LONDON : Pemerintah Inggris memperkuat campur tangan dalam sistem keuangan dengan menjamin aset bermasalah dan memberikan kewenangan kepada Bank of England untuk membeli surat berharga saat kondisi tidak terduga.
Menurut pernyataan Departemen Keuangan Inggris kemarin, rencana itu akan meningkatkan biaya jaminan perbankan nasional setidaknya hingga US$147 miliar (100 miliar pound).
Pemerintah juga menambah saham di Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc menjadi 70%, serta menggunakan Northern Rock Plc meningkatkan pinjaman hipotik.
"Kebijakan ini mencoba menopang kepercayaan di sistem perbankan dengan melanggar semua konvensi. Persediaan kredit turun dan proyeksi ekonomi memburuk, jadi pemerintah harus mengucurkan dana lebih banyak lagi," ujar Alan Clarke, ekonom BNP Paribas SA London.
Dia menilai kebijakan baru itu merupakan langkah besar PM Gordon Brown untuk menggerakkan kembali pinjaman perbankan karena Inggris semakin jatuh ke resesi ekonomi terburuk sejak akhir Perang Dunia II.
Sebelum mendapatkan jaminan, pemerintah mewajibkan penerima bantuan menandatangani persetujuan spesifikasi dan kualifikasi pinjaman. Perjanjian ini menggambarkan kekecewaan Brown pada paket penyelamatan pasar gagal yang diluncurkan pada Oktober 2008.
Menteri Keuangan Inggris Alistair Darling kepada Sky News mengatakan inti kebijakan pemerintah yang dikeluarkan kemarin adalah menempatkan aturan yang dirancang untuk menggerakkan kembali pasar kredit pada tempatnya.
Ernst & Young Item Club menyebutkan perekonomian Inggris kemungkinan mengalami kontraksi 2,7% pada tahun ini, angka terendah sejak 1946. Harga rumah kemungkinan turun 22% pada satu setengah tahun mendatang.
Imbal hasil obligasi Pemerintah Inggris berdurasi 10 tahun naik 9 basis poin menjadi 3,38%. Nilai tukar Pound mengalami sedikit perubahan menjadi US$1,47 pada sesi pagi di London.
Melalui rencana jaminan tidak terduga yang dikeluarkan Darling, pemerintah akan membayar biaya jaminan sekitar 90% dari potensi kerugian perbankan atas aset yang dapat merusak modal perbankan. (esu)
Bloomberg
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Saham HSBC turun terus
LONDON: Nilai saham HSBC Holdings Plc turun selama 6 hari berturut-turut di bursa Hong Kong, setelah pemegang saham Knight Vinke Asset Management LLC mengatakan bank terbesar di Eropa itu kemungkinan perlu menjual saham guna mengatasi kekurangan modal.
Nilai saham HSBC yang berbasis di London itu turun 3,9% menjadi US$62,30 pada perdagangan kemarin. Angka terendah selama satu dekade itu memperpanjang kerugian tercepat sejak September 2008.
Saham perusahaan itu telah merugi 15% dalam tahun ini sehingga HSBC menjadi perusahaan berkinerja terburuk di Hang Seng Index. (Bloomberg/esu)
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Sisa bailout perbankan AS buat konsumen
WASHINGTON: Presiden Amerika Serikat terpilih Barack Obama akan lebih fokus membantu konsumen, pemerintah lokal, dan pelaku usaha dibandingkan dengan perbankan atas penggunaan sisa dana penyelamatan (bailout) sektor keuangan (Troubled Asset Relief Program/ TARP) sebesar US$350 miliar.
"Fokus penggunaan dana itu tidak untuk kebutuhan perbankan, tetapi ditujukan bagi keperluan kredit untuk ekonomi. Tim Obama akan mengelola TARP dengan cara yang sangat berbeda," ujar Lawrence Summers, penasihat ekonomi tertinggi Obama pada acara Face the Nation di CBS, kemarin.
Pernyataan Summers ini mengindikasikan para bank dan eksekutifnya akan menghadapi kriteria lebih ketat untuk mendapatkan dana bailout itu setelah pemerintahan Obama mengambil alih Kantor Presiden AS pada 20 Januari 2009.
Dia mengatakan TARP kemungkinan diarahkan bagi sektor perumahan untuk mencegah terjadinya penyitaan yang lebih besar. Paket itu juga ditujukan bagi kredit mobil, kredit konsumen, usaha kecil dan pemerintah lokal.
Sementara itu, Menteri Keuangan AS Henry Paulson telah berkomitmen sebagian besar dari US$350 miliar dalam TARP akan digunakan menjadi suntikan modal, dan ditukarkan dengan surat utang jenis warrant dan ekuitas tertentu. Sebaliknya Summers mengatakan subjek pengawasan penggunaan dana itu lebih banyak ditujukan bagi perbankan.
"Akan ada perbedaan sangat besar dalam evaluasi lembaga. Lembaga sehat yang dapat bertahan tanpa dana itu diharapkan dapat mengalokasikan pinjaman di atas standar mereka sebagai bagian dari program ini," jelas Summers.
Lebih jauh, dia menjelaskan calon Menteri Keuangan Timothy Geithner dan sejumlah penasihat Obama akan lebih hati-hati mengawasi bonus bagi perbankan di Wall Street yang ikut dalam TARP.
Summers menambahkan pihaknya yakin Konges akan menyetujui paket stimulus lanjutan, yang digabungkan dengan pemangkasan pajak, sesuai dengan permintaan Obama, yaitu US$825 miliar. Paket stimulus ini diproyeksikan mampu menciptakan lapangan kerja baru bagi 3 juta sampai 4 juta orang.
"Saya mengharapkan program itu akan disetujui bulan ini. Obama melakukan hal yang sangat penting mengeluarkan kami dari keterpurukan ekonomi," ujarnya.
Berdasarkan laporan Departemen Tenaga Kerja pada pekan lalu, penurunan ekonomi AS berlanjut. (esu)
Bloomberg
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Permintaan yang rendah persuram prospek minyak
JAKARTA: Kontrak minyak mentah terus melemah menyusul perkiraan perlambatan laju perekonomian dunia akan menekan konsumsi komoditas sumber energi utama tersebut.
China diperkirakan mencatatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi paling rendah dalam 7 tahun terakhir akibat pelemahan kinerja ekspor. International Energy Agency memperkirakan permintaan minyak global akan menciut 0,6% menjadi 85,3 juta per hari pada tahun ini.
Jika harga minyak makin terpuruk, Organisasi Negara-negara Pengekspor Minyak (OPEC) kemungkinan akan memangkas lagi produksinya pada pertemuan kartel minyak itu pada Maret.
Poltak Hotradero, Kepala Riset PT Recapital Securities, memperkirakan kontrak minyak untuk pengiriman Maret masih akan melemah karena penurunan permintaan dunia yang tercermin dari impor China, konsumen energi terbesar kedua setelah Amerika Serikat.
"Polanya masih sama dengan harga untuk [kontrak pengiriman] Februari. Dengan asumsi bahwa pada kenyataannya terjadi penurunan permintaan dari importir minyak," katanya kepada Bisnis, kemarin.
Poltak melanjutkan pertumbuhan ekonomi China bisa lebih lambat lagi karena ekspor dua mitra dagang utamanya yaitu Korea Selatan dan Taiwan juga turun dan semakin mengaburkan pemulihan ekonomi.
"Padahal permintaan minyak dari AS dan Jepang juga turun. Susah bagi harga minyak naik lagi seperti dulu," katanya.
Kontrak minyak pengiriman Februari akan berakhir pada hari ini. Harga minyak untuk pengiriman Februari kemarin diperdagangkan di level US$35,91 per barel di New York Merchantile Exchange lebih rendah dari akhir pekan lalu yang masih US$36,51 per barel.
Tahun ini kontrak minyak turun 19% setelah tahun lalu terempas hingga 54%. Margin antara kontrak Februari dan Maret sekitar US$5,95, sebelumnya jarak harga sempat mencapai US$8,14 pada 15 Januari.
Harga minyak merosot paling tidak dalam tiga kuartal secara berturut-turut setelah mencapai rekor US$147,27 per barel pada Juli tahun lalu seiring dengan resesi ekonomi global.
Mengenai kemungkinan OPEC memangkas kuota produksinya pada Maret, Poltak memperkirakan strategi kartel minyak itu tidak akan berpengaruh karena permintaan komoditas energi itu sudah tergerus.
Baru-baru ini Norico Gaman, Kepala Riset PT BNI Securitas, memperkirakan harga minyak masih berisiko turun ke level yang lebih rendah.
"Ada potensi tertekan lagi, imbasnya pada usaha negara produsen. Sebab, untuk lifting cost harga minyak pada saat ini kurang lebih US$15 per barel, kalau sampai turun terus menjadi US$20 per barel otomatis marginnya hanya US$5 per barel," katanya kepada Bisnis. (23)
Bisnis Indonesia
Morgan incar unit Citigroup Inc
Sumber Bloomberg yang tidak bersedia disebutkan identitasnya mengatakan Morgan Stanley, yang dipimpin oleh Chief Executive Officer John Mack, kemungkinan mendapatkan 51% saham perusahaan baru penasihat keuangan individu terbesar. Sisanya dapat diperoleh setelah 3 hingga 5 tahun.
Citigroup, yang melaporkan kerugian US$20 miliar pada kuartal keempat lalu, akan mendapatkan dana tunai dari broker Smith Barney, sementara itu Morgan Stanley akan memperoleh kembali biaya pendapatan serta nasabah perbankan potensial yang lebih banyak.
Penggabungan itu akan mempekerjakan 22.000 orang penasihat keuangan. Jumlah itu lebih besar dari jumlah penasihat keuangan Bank of America yang sekitar 20.000 setelah perusahaan itu membeli Merrill Lynch & Co.
Pengawas tentatif
Presiden Morgan Stanley Co James Gorman menyebutkan kemungkinan pengawasan perusahaan secara tentatif dilakukan oleh Morgan Stanley Smith Barney.
"Banyak tekanan bagi Citi untuk menetapkan nilai khusus sejumlah aset yang lebih berharga, salah satunya adalah Smith Barney. Bagi Morgan Stanley banyak tekanan memperbaiki posisi unit bisnis," ujar Michael Nix, pengelola dana di Greenwood Capital Associates LLC Greenwood, South Carolina.
Juru bicara Morgan Stanley dan Citigroup menolak berkomentar mengenai hal ini. Kedua perusahaan tersebut berbasis di New York, AS.
Krisis keuangan terburuk sejak 1930 telah membentuk kembali pembagian peran mitra merger di industri keuangan Amerika Serikat, serta menjadikan Pemerintah AS sebagai satu dari investor terbesar pada sejumlah perusahaan di Wall Street, termasuk Morgan Stanley dan Citigroup.
Sejalan dengan kebangkrutan Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc pada September 2008, Merrill, yang kemudian menjadi broker terbesar di AS, setuju diambil alih oleh Bank of America yang berbasis di Charlotte, North Carolina.
Morgan Stanley diubah dari sebuah perusahaan sekuritas menjadi induk perusahaan bank, sedangkan Citigroup yang dipimpin oleh Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit mendapatkan US$45 miliar dana penjaminan Pemerintah AS. (esu)
Bloomberg
Laba Bersih Danamon Turun Jadi Rp 1,5 Triliun di 2008
Tanpa memperhitungkan pencadangan untuk kontrak foreign exchange forward, NPAT dari kegiatan bisnis inti Danamon (normalized) mencapai Rp 2,3 triliun.
Perolehan laba bersih di tahun 2008 itu didukung oleh pertumbuhan kredit khususnya pada segmen Usaha Mikro, Kecil dan Menengah (UMKM). Bank Danamon sepanjang 2008 berhasil mencatat pertumbuhan kredit hingga 25% (unaudited) dibandingkan 2007.
"Pendanaan kami juga mencatatkan pertumbuhan yang sehat sebesar 24% (unaudited) di sepanjang tahun lalu, membawa rasio kredit terhadap total pendanaan ke tingkat 74% dan LDR (loan to deposit ratio) sebesar 86%," kata Sebastian Paredes, Direktur Utama Danamon dalam siaran persnya, Rabu (21/1/2009).
Rasio kecukupan modal Danamon sebesar 13,4% (unaudited) di tahun 2008. Namun CAR itu lebih rendah dari capaian di 2007 yang mencapai 19,3%.
"Kualitas aset tetap terjaga dengan cost of credit sebesar 2,9% dibandingkan 2,3% di tahun sebelumnya. Angka ini termasuk pencadangan untuk kontrak foreign exchange forwards," lanjut Sebastian.
Untuk Rasio Kredit Bermasalah terhadap Kredit yang Diberikan, atau Non Performing Loans/NPL berada pada tingkat 2,3% atau tidak berubah dari posisinya pada akhir tahun 2007.
Layaknya institusi finansial lain, Bank Danamon pun juga tak bisa menghindar dari krisis finansial global. Pada kuartal terakhir 2008, krisis keuangan global telah membawa dampaknya pada Indonesia dan mengakibatkan depresiasi tajam pada nilai tukar Rupiah, sementara harga-harga komoditas berjatuhan.
"Hal ini berdampak terhadap arus kas beberapa eksportir dan kemampuan mereka untuk terus memenuhi kewajiban mereka sehubungan dengan kontrak foreign exchange forwards," jelas Sebastian.
Berkaitan hal tersebut, lanjut Sebastian, Danamon telah secara aktif bernegosiasi dengan para nasabah untuk mencari solusi terbaik dan mendukung mereka dalam masa-masa sulit ini.
"Kami konfirmasikan bahwa Danamon telah mengambil posisi yang sangat konservatif dalam menetapkan pencadangan di kuartal keempat 2008, yang memungkinkan kami untuk beroperasi tanpa tambahan kerugian dari kontrak foreign exchange forwards di tahun 2009," ujar Sebastian.
Singapura Hadapi Resesi Terburuk
"Perekonomian Singapura sedang melalui resesi yang paling tajam, dalam dan berkepanjangan," ujar Ravi Menon, Wakil Menteri Perdagangan dan Industri Singapura seperti dikutip dari AFP, Rabu (21/1/2009).
Pemerintah Singapura memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi hanya sekitar 2-5% di tahun 2009. Selama tahun 2008, perekonomian Singapura diperkirakan hanya tumbuh 1,2% atau turun tajam dibandingkan pertumbuhan ekonomi di tahun 2007 yang sebesar 7,7%.
Secara quarter on quarter, perekonomian Singapura melemah 16,9% selama kuartal IV-2008. Penurunan pada kuartal tersebut lebih tajam ketimbang pada kuartal III-2008 yang turun 5,1% dan 5,5% pada kuartal II-2008.
"Perekonomian menurun tajam pada kuartal keempat," ujar Song Seng Wun, ekonom regional dari CIMB-GK Research.
Singapura pada Oktober lalu menjadi negara Asia pertama yang telah memasuki resesi. Singapura mengikuti negara-negara besar Eropa dan juga Amerika Serikat yang juga mengalami resesi. Padahal Singapura dulunya merupakan salah satu negara Asia Tenggara yang paling kuat dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi di atas rata-rata.
Singapura juga termasuk negara paling makmur di kawasan dilihat dari sisi PDB. Namun ketergantungan Singapura yang besar untuk perdagangan dengan negara lain membuat negara tersebut terkena dampak krisis yang paling parah.
Ekspor non migas kunci (Non-Oil Domestic Export/NODX) turun hingga 7,9% di tahun 2008 setelah sebelumnya tumbuh 2,3% di tahun 2007. NODX diperkirakan merosot hingga 9-11% terutama dipicu oleh lemahnya permintaan produk, khususnya produk elektronik yang merupakan produk ekspor utama Singapura.
"Lemahnya prognosa total perdagangan Singapura untuk tahun 2009 disebabkan oleh memburuknya lingkungan perdagangan global sejak November 2008, terutama penurunan yang signifikan dari permintaan dari partner dagang utama kami," ujar Badan Promosi Perdagangan Singapura
Keuntungan Penjualan Premium Sudah Masuk Kas Negara
"Itu sudah dibukukan oleh Depkeu, sudah masuk kepenerimaan negara. Angkanya tidak sepert itu, deket-deket itu lah," ungkap Dirjen Migas Evita Legowo saat dikonfirmasi apakah keuntungan penjualan premium telah mencapai Rp 1,1 triliun lebih.
Namun sayangnya Evita yang ditemui dalam rapat di Gedung DPR/MPR, Jakarta, Rabu (21/1/2009) tidak merinci lebih lanjut, mengenai keuntungan periode penjualan premium yang mendapat keuntungan semenjak menembus angka keekonomian.
Anggota komisi VII DPR RI dari Fraksi PAN Tjatur Sapto Edy sempat mempertanyakan pemerintah perihal keuntungan yang didapat pemerintah menjual premium yang dianggapnya pelanggaran terhadap undang-undang.
"Jumlahnya Rp 1,45 triliun, kalau alphanya sudah di-mentok-kan artinya rakyat sudah rugi-rugi Pertamina untung-untung lah. Nah itu masih untung Rp 1,1 triliun," katanya.
Tjatur memperkirakan jika alpha Pertamina 8%, maka untungnya pemerintah bisa mencapai Rp 902 miliar pada 15 hari pertama Januari 2009. Sedangkan pada 15 hari selanjutnya untungnya itu bisa Rp 545 miliar untuk premium saja.
Dikatakannya keuntungan masih bisa didapatkan oleh pemerintah meskipun alpha ditetapkan maksimal . "Jika alpha 15% seperti yang dikatakan BPH Migas, pemerintah masih untung 1,05 triliun untuk premium saja," imbuhnya.
Menurutnya, hal tersebut merupakan tindakan yang melanggar undang-undang APBN karena prisnsipnya, pemerintah tidak boleh mengambil keuntungan dari BBM PSO (bersubsidi).
Jakarta - Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) berencana memanggil PT DBS Vickers Indonesia untuk mengklarifikasi tudingan penyalahgunaan dana seorang nasabahny
"Rencananya akan kita panggil hari ini. Untuk mengklarifikasi dulu," kata Direktur Perdagangan Pendapatan Tetap dan Derivatif, Keanggotaan, serta Partisipan BEI, Guntur Pasaribu di kantornya, SCBD, Jakarta, Rabu (21/1/2009).
Guntur mengatakan, klarifikasi akan mencakup prosedur penerimaan nasabah dan transaksi yang benar sehingga didapatkan informasi yang akurat dan terintegrasi.
"Bagaimana perjanjian mereka saat pembukaan rekening (opening account). Apakah ini margin atau reguler. Order-nya juga seperti apa? Kan ada instruksi bisa lewat email, telepon, atau surat, tapi semua kan ada recordnya. Kita dari anggota bursa melihat bagaimana itu terjadi, supaya info yang kita peroleh dari dua arah," jelas Guntur.
Dalam pemeriksaan, Guntur melanjutkan, BEI juga akan melakukan pengecekan rekening investor setiap bulannya dan dokumen-dokumen pendukung setiap transaksi yang terjadi di DBS.
"Bagaimana komunikasi mereka (DBS dan nasabahnya), artinya ketika mereka mengirimkan konfirmasi dari nasabah ke perusahaan. Itu ada dokumentasi yang harus kita lihat," ujarnya.
Menurut Guntur, jika DBS mengklaim nasabahnya itu melakukan transaksi biasa tanpa melanggar ketentuan yang berlaku, maka hal itu perlu dibuktikan dengan dokumen-dokumen yang ada. Setelah data-data dari DBS didapat lanjut Guntur,
otoritas bursa akan melakukan cek silang pada asumsi dan data yang disampaikan nasabah.
"Kita belum terima laporan secara tertulis nanti di-cross check yang dari nasabah. Kalau itu bukan kesalahan DBS, harus ada dokumennya dong," ujar Guntur.
Menanggapi klausul penjualan saham atas perintah DBS Singapura Guntur enggan berkomentar lebih jauh dengan alasan proses tersebut masih dalam tahap pemeriksaan.
"Nanti kita coba lihat dokumentasi di DBS seperti apa," katanya.
Sebelumnya, nasabah PT DBS Vickers lndonesia melaporkan aksi penyalahgunaan rekening nasabah yang dilakukan DBS kepada Bapepam LK. Nasabah bernama Dedy Darmawan Jamin merupakan salah satu nasabah yang berinvestasi melalui DBS berdasarkan perjanjian pembukaan rekening efek regular bertanggal 13 Februari 2007.
Singapura Hadapi Resesi Terburuk
"Perekonomian Singapura sedang melalui resesi yang paling tajam, dalam dan berkepanjangan," ujar Ravi Menon, Wakil Menteri Perdagangan dan Industri Singapura seperti dikutip dari AFP, Rabu (21/1/2009).
Pemerintah Singapura memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi hanya sekitar 2-5% di tahun 2009. Selama tahun 2008, perekonomian Singapura diperkirakan hanya tumbuh 1,2% atau turun tajam dibandingkan pertumbuhan ekonomi di tahun 2007 yang sebesar 7,7%.
Secara quarter on quarter, perekonomian Singapura melemah 16,9% selama kuartal IV-2008. Penurunan pada kuartal tersebut lebih tajam ketimbang pada kuartal III-2008 yang turun 5,1% dan 5,5% pada kuartal II-2008.
"Perekonomian menurun tajam pada kuartal keempat," ujar Song Seng Wun, ekonom regional dari CIMB-GK Research.
Singapura pada Oktober lalu menjadi negara Asia pertama yang telah memasuki resesi. Singapura mengikuti negara-negara besar Eropa dan juga Amerika Serikat yang juga mengalami resesi. Padahal Singapura dulunya merupakan salah satu negara Asia Tenggara yang paling kuat dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi di atas rata-rata.
Singapura juga termasuk negara paling makmur di kawasan dilihat dari sisi PDB. Namun ketergantungan Singapura yang besar untuk perdagangan dengan negara lain membuat negara tersebut terkena dampak krisis yang paling parah.
Ekspor non migas kunci (Non-Oil Domestic Export/NODX) turun hingga 7,9% di tahun 2008 setelah sebelumnya tumbuh 2,3% di tahun 2007. NODX diperkirakan merosot hingga 9-11% terutama dipicu oleh lemahnya permintaan produk, khususnya produk elektronik yang merupakan produk ekspor utama Singapura.
"Lemahnya prognosa total perdagangan Singapura untuk tahun 2009 disebabkan oleh memburuknya lingkungan perdagangan global sejak November 2008, terutama penurunan yang signifikan dari permintaan dari partner dagang utama kami," ujar Badan Promosi Perdagangan Singapura.
Singapore in Worst-Ever Recession After Q4 Slump
Singapore's economy shrank more than expected in the fourth quarter, prompting the government to declare the nation was in its worst ever recession and fanning expectations that the central bank will let its currency weaken.
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The Singapore economy shrank in the fourth quarter at a seasonally adjusted, annualized pace of 16.9 percent, deeper than advance estimates of a 12.5 percent contraction, detailed government data showed on Wednesday.
The government said it now expected Singapore's economy to contract between two and five percent this year, slashing its forecast further from an already downgraded outlook of a range of minus 2 percent to plus 1 percent published just three weeks ago.
"The Singapore economy is going through its sharpest, deepest and most protracted recession," the Trade Ministry's second permanent secretary Ravi Menon said at a media briefing.
Singapore's central bank said on Wednesday that its monetary policy stance of zero appreciation in the Singapore dollar announced last October was intact and it had no plans to review monetary policy ahead of a scheduled policy meeting in April.
But analysts said the gloomy economic forecasts and grim fourth quarter data increased the likelihood the central bank will loosen policy and let the Singapore dollar slide.
"I'm bearish for the Singapore dollar. It's worse than I expected," said Irene Cheung, currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore. "I expect monetary policy to remain accommodative -- they should have recentered the band earlier, but they might still do it -- the sooner the better."
Singapore manages monetary policy by adjusting the value of its currency relative to those of its main trading partners in an undisclosed band. The Singapore dollar stood at 1.5037 against the U.S. dollar in the early Asian session, compared with 1.51 before the data.
The government expects key non-oil domestic exports will shrink 9-11 percent this year, while total trade, which includes entreport activities, may plunge 17-19 percent.
From a year ago, fourth quarter gross domestic product, or the value of all goods and services produced in Singapore, fell 3.7 percent following a drop of 0.2 percent in the third quarter.
Singapore last reported three straight quarters of economic contraction in 2001 after the dotcom bubble burst in the United States, badly hurting the city-state's key electronics sector.
The economy grew 1.2 percent for all of 2008, slowing sharply from 7.7 percent expansion in 2007.
The government said manufacturing output in the fourth quarter shrank 10.7 percent from a year earlier, while services contracted 0.1 percent.